X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

xSLG Risers - Statcast Hitter Analysis (Week 18)

Two full weeks have now passed since the Midsummer Classic. It's not a big sample size but we can look at some early second-half trends to see who is turning it up a notch after the All-Star break.

Expected stats don't tell the whole story of a player's success but they often are more revealing than result-based stats. Given the small sample, I decided to focus on slugging rather than batting average to see who is generating high power levels after a week of rest.

You know the drill - I'm not going to tell you about Josh Donaldson again or explain why Goldy is on a tear. We're going to look at players who are on the bubble of fantasy relevance to determine if we should care or not. Now, let's dive into the Statcast numbers to find buy/sell/add/drop candidates for the second half of the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Second-Half Surgers

All stats current as of July 29, 2019 and display leaders over the last 20 days.

 

Josh VanMeter (2B/3B/OF, CIN)

0.764 xSLG in last 22 plate appearances

It's no secret that VanMeter has been off the charts this past week with a homer in three straight games and four in the past 10 days. It's a far cry from his first call-up in May when he hit .220 with no home runs over his first 49 plate appearances. He wasn't set to receive regular playing time but that could change if he forces his way into the lineup more often.

VanMeter is tops in this category since the break, ahead of even Paul Goldschmidt and Nelson Cruz. Is this something to expect going forward if he becomes a mainstay for the Reds? Well, he never hit more than 14 HR in a minor league season and wasn't considered a plus power prospect, so expectations should rise too high. That said, he did tie his high of 14 bombs in just 49 games at Triple-A this year, so he could be coming into his power at age 24. He is a must-add in NL-only leagues and someone to consider in 14-teamers.

 

Carson Kelly (C, ARI)

0.702 xSLG in last 27 plate appearances

Bet the Cards wish they hadn't given up on him so soon... Yadier Molina is perpetually on the IL and Kelly, their former backstop of the future, is now raking in Arizona instead. Kelly is up to 12 home runs and 35 RBI on the season, with a .262 average. That makes him ninth in HR and 16th in RBI among all catchers. His season-long xSLG is just 58th percentile but he is fourth in the majors since the second half began.

Kelly has shown good power in limited time and is an excellent pitch-framer. Unfortunately, he is still splitting time with Alex Avila and will only see 3-4 starts per week on average. That and the fact he bats eighth in the order will continue to limit his value to two-catcher, NL-only and 14+ team leagues. If you're hurting for help at catcher (who isn't?) then his production right now might be worth a stream.

 

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR)

0.651 xSLG in last 41 plate appearances

In the last two weeks, Hernandez's six home runs is tied for fifth-most during that stretch. He was a Statcast darling all last year and we know he has strong power based on his 22 bombs in 2018. Now, let me tell you why this could be a flash in the pan.

Hernandez has been terrible all year. His .396 xSLG is bad enough but his .203 xBA is in the bottom 2% of the league. His K-rate is still above 30% and his exit velocity is down two ticks from last year. He's obviously making harder contact in July but he may not make contact often enough going forward to sustain this heat wave. Hernandez can give you a short-term power boost if he keeps it up but it will still come at the expense of batting average. Despite his elite sprint speed, he offers nothing in terms of steals and the RBI opps just aren't plentiful enough.

 

Daniel Vogelbach (1B, SEA)

0.605 xSLG in last 42 plate appearances

Remember when the Mariners were the best offense in the league, led by Daniel Vogelbach? Fast forward three months and they are a last-place team that is 23rd in team average. One thing they've sustained is their power, ranking sixth in home runs. Vogelbach has remained quietly consistent in his power numbers too, with at least five HR in each month. If he drives in one more run in the next three days, he will have reached exactly 16 RBI in each of the past four months too.

What's notable about this is the fact that he will have matched June's output in approximately 30 fewer at-bats because of the All-Star break. Vogelbach isn't helping you in average or runs but his power can be counted on. An outstanding 16.5% walk rate makes him a must-start in points leagues, unlike Hernandez (above).

 

Anthony Santander (OF, BAL)

0.601 xSLG in last 65 plate appearances

Another Oriole rookie popping out of nowhere with noisy power numbers. Santander started hitting right away, with nine hits in his first six games upon his June call-up. Nobody paid much attention until recently when he started clubbing homers though. Santander has gone deep four times in the last two weeks along with eight multi-hit games. That brings his season average to .299.

There is definitely an opening for him to stay in the lineup and he has shown power in the past (20 HR in Advanced-A ball) so perhaps this is a real breakout in progress. The fact that he's hitting cleanup shows the Orioles believe in him and will continue to ride his hot hand. His strong 90.1 MPH exit velocity, decent .272 xBA, and low 17.8% strikeout rate indicate he won't be an all-or-nothing proposition in the power category. Take a chance on him while he is still just 34% owned.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NBA

Tosan Evbuomwan Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
NBA

Bismack Biyombo Returns to Spurs
NBA

Bones Hyland Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP