September 4, 2016

A look inside some of the most interesting gambling props for players throughout the season, and how it can help you in fantasy.

Everyone’s got the $2 friend. I don’t mean a friend who is cheap, or may be considered trashy. It’s the friend who will find himself, every year, placing a buck or two on his team. He may casually bring it up at work, and say “Oh yeah, every year my buddies and I place $20 on the New York Jets to win the whole thing this year!” He will then hold his head back and laugh because, despite the fact that these long shot bets are sometimes as useful as burning your money in the yard, if such a crazy thing would happen, he would win twice. These are not the guys you hear about who gamble strategically. These are first and foremost fans, and they are hoping that despite their teams unlikely odds, they will shock the world and win that big money.

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Odds don’t actually work like that, of course. Anytime money is involved, the goal posts are set by experts who know their stuff. These odds change dramatically throughout the season, but there’s a reason that the Premier League’s Leicester gambling windfall doesn’t happen all that often. The experts are trying their absolute best to give their best guess about what will happen to encourage betting on equal sides, and adjust these numbers until the very end of the season to match real results. When it comes to players, these numbers are more telling.

We referenced Bovada’s season props to get a glimpse into what people with actual money on the line anticipate happening in the NFL regular season. As we simultaneously enter the 2016 fantasy football season, let’s take a look at some of the more surprising player odds to see where they fall in line with our expectations of fantasy skill.

NOTE: These are some of the more surprising props, and not who I’d encourage you to bet on. Please don’t bet on… many of these.

Who will lead the 2016-2017 NFL season in passing yards: Matt Ryan, +1000 (4th best odds)

What this tells us is that Bovada likes Matt Ryan more than most of the fantasy community, at least initially. The Atlanta Falcons QB was originally the quarterback with the second-best odds to lead the NFL in passing yards as of a few days ago, but has now settled into a much more reasonable fourth place. It’s a reminder that Matt Ryan has consistently ranked in the top-five quarterbacks in terms of passing-yards for the last three years, and even if Julio Jones is tripled team against every NFC South defense, Ryan still has decent fantasy value for those of us waiting on quarterback.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Sterling Shepard, +900 (3rd best)

What this tells us is that of the four WR drafted in the first round, Shepard has the best shot of being a breakout candidate in 2016. Never mind the fact that these same rankings have Ezekiel Elliott at even odds to be rookie of the year or that, despite starting the season at third string, Jared Goff has +700 odds to win the honor. No, the takeaway is that if you’re in a redraft league, you might want to ignore any noise and go with Sheppard as your rookie fantasy wide receiver. 

NFL MVP Award Winner: Adrian Peterson +3300 and Todd Gurley, +4000

What this tells us is that the experts see Peterson and Gurley as the catalysts for their team in 2016. At the 11th and 13th best odds, respectively, Bovada is either hoping to lure Vikings and Rams fans to the betting table, or that they actually believe that Peterson is the best non-QB offensive player in the game, and that Gurley sits only behind Peterson and Antonio Brown. For fantasy purposes, this gets more interesting. The +3300 on Peterson did not change after the Teddy Bridgewater injury, meaning that bettors largely believe that Peterson will have success regardless of the throwing game. Peterson’s stock is declining in fantasy football drafts since the Bridgewater injury, as anyone left to draft is going full “Bo Callahan” and picking a traditionally safer player. For Gurley, it’s a little more simple; despite having PFF’s 31st ranked offensive line and Case Keenum at starting QB, the experts believe that Gurley will be what drags the Los Angeles Rams kicking and screaming into the win column. It may not be that they love the Rams as much as they know that any offensive success will come from Gurley, and any MVPs honor are due to him first and foremost. Bovada likes both of these guys more than your league does, so unless you want to trade all your number one picks (ok, no more Draft Day references), the odds dictate they are still solid first round picks.

Who will lead the 2016-2017 NFL Season in receiving yards: Antonio Brown +200 and Julio Jones +300

What this tells us is that the best two receivers last year may have been in a tier of their own. The odds on these two players are almost certainly tied to the fact that Brown and Jones were the only two WR’s to break 1800 yards last year… or 1700… or even 1600. The next highest mark was DeAndre Hopkins with 1521. As much as we like guys like DeAndre or Odell, Jones and Brown started and performed with unmatched consistency last season. It’s not anything revolutionary to say those two are the best players at their position, but I cannot stress the importance enough of starting with a WR in the first round this season in a redraft league.

2016-2017 NFL Coach of the Year Award Winner, Mike Zimmer, +1000 (2nd best odds)

What this tells us is one thing for fantasy purposes; Zimmer is still a talented coach, especially defensively. His odds are better than Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, and though that also might reflect some bias in the people who choose such an award (Belichick can’t get it every year, you know), it might also suggest that there will still be some production on both sides of the ball. Whether it’s how you talk yourself into Treadwell towards the end of the draft, or a nice reminder that the Vikings defensive unit is underrated, Zimmer is expected to succeed in spite of bad luck.

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