X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

PGA DFS: Horse For The Course - TOUR Championship

Welcome back golf fans! I hope everyone enjoyed the break last week. Hopefully the start of football helped to curb your PGA DFS withdrawals. We are back in action for the TOUR Championship and the stakes don't get much higher. After an entire PGA Tour season and the FedEx Cup playoffs, we are down to the final 30 players. The title of FedEx Cup Champion and 10 million dollars will be on the line at East Lake Country Club.

The TOUR Championship always has a slightly different feel than any other week of the golf schedule because players are trying to win the actual tournament, but are also keeping an eye on the points standings that determine the winner of the FedEx Cup title. There are five players in the field that can claim the FedEx Cup with a win this week: Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson, and defending champ Justin Thomas. Every other player in the field will need a win and "help" in the points standings to win the FedEx title.

This event is very interesting from a DFS perspective. There will be no cut this week and we have an extremely small field of only 30 players. Because of the limited options available to us, game theory will force us to get creative with lineup construction if we hope to take down a DFS tournament. There is a high probability that lineups will be duplicated due to the small player pool, but we'll discuss some strategies for differentiating our lineups throughout this week's article. We've had a week to recharge our golf batteries, let's tee it up!

Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.

For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots. 

Sign Up Now!

 

The Course: East Lake Golf Club - Par 70 - 7,385 Yards

Opened in 1908 as the original home of the Atlanta Athletic Club, this Tom Bendelow designed was overhauled by Donald Ross just five years after opening and was freshened up by Rees Jones in the mid-1990's. Those of you that have followed the FedEx Cup Playoffs should be very familiar with Ross, as we have seen several of his designs over the last portion of the PGA season. The fairways are narrow and players will be finding the rough with regularity. Distance off the tee will be an advantage, so I'm looking for ball strikers with length that are accurate on approach.

 

The Horse

Justin Thomas (DraftKings - $10,300 & FanDuel - $11,000 )

On a normal week, I try to identify the player with the best combination of elite course history and great current form in order to name the Horse. On a normal week, Justin Rose would be a slam-dunk for the TOUR Championship honor with his history at East Lake and runner-up finishes in his last two tournaments. This is not a normal week.

At the time of this writing, ownership projections are a little foggy, but I get the feeling that the masses will flock toward Rose in this spot. My usual advice would be to eat the chalk if you love the play, but the size of the TOUR field offers a very unique situation where we must differentiate our lineups or find ourselves almost certainly duplicated by multiple entries in tournament fields.

In the spirit of taking a contrarian line this week, I'm dropping down the price scale to a different Justin...Justin Thomas. Though Rose might check all of our normal boxes, JT is definitely no slouch. I feel that he heads into the TOUR Championship a bit more under-the-radar than the other elite players available. While Bryson DeChambeau has been grabbing headlines for wins and Dustin Johnson has been grabbing headlines for...ahem...other reasons, JT has quietly been grinding away.

Over his last five tournament starts, Thomas has a win against an elite field at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, two Top-10's and two Top-25's. He has also had success at East Lake in his two appearances, logging a runner-up finish last year and a T6 in 2016. Our friends at Fantasy National confirm that JT has an affinity for Donald Ross layouts, as he ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over his last 12 rounds at Ross courses. We must also weigh the mental aspect of this week's tournament. Thomas wasn't able to capture a major championship this year and will be hungry to "save" his season by winning his second consecutive FedEx Cup title, which he can do with a victory in Atlanta.

While salary cap relief isn't as important as usual this week, JT does offer a $900 discount from Rose on DraftKings. He is a great place to start your lineups. While we are touching on salary, I strongly recommend that you don't be a slave to using the full salary cap on either site. You would be very surprised how much you can differentiate your lineups by leaving just few hundred dollars on the table. With the situation we are in this week, I wouldn't shy away from leaving a great deal more than that in an attempt to gain leverage in tournaments.

 

The Ponies

Tony Finau (DK - $8,600 & FD - $10,300 )

I'm going to take this opportunity to talk about my main man and official U.S. Ryder Cup team member Tony Finau. Finau hasn't been featured in this article very often this season and the reason for that basically boils down to the fact that he hasn't been on Tour long enough to build up much course history at different venues. That is again the case this week, as Finau has only one career appearance at East Lake, logging a T7 in last year's TOUR Championship. Despite his lack of starts in Atlanta, I'm confident in his ability to succeed on the Donald Ross layout.

Finau has long-been a phenomenal talent with unbelievable distance off the tee, but with frustrating shortcomings in other areas of his game. It seems that Finau has finally put it all together in 2018 and is delivering on the promise he's flashed over the last couple of years. He has shown marked improvement this season in areas of his game that held him back in the past. Finau sits at 71st in Strokes Gained: Putting and 34th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green on the PGA Tour in 2018, huge jumps from his ranks of 136th and 81st in the same categories in 2017. This improved tee-to-green play has been the catalyst for Finau to go on a MASSIVE TEAR throughout the FedEx Cup playoffs, logging finishes of 2nd-T4-T8 in the three events of the PGA postseason that he's made starts in.

Finau gets a ton of grief for not winning more tournaments and I suppose that criticism is fair, but I could make the argument that it's never been harder to win on the PGA Tour due to the talent level of this generation's players. In any case, Finau could silence the critics in style with a win at East Lake this week. His standing of third in the points standing gives him the luxury of a "win and clinch" scenario. Finau is always a popular DFS option and that will be the case again this week, but I'm hopeful that Bryson DeChambeau will soak up a bit of ownership at a similar price point. While we want to be creative with lineup construction, it's hard to pass up Finau's upside at this price.

Billy Horschel (DK - $7,300 & FD -$7,900 )

Let's move on to another guy that is striking the ball like an absolute rock star. Billy Horschel has all the prerequisites we are looking for in a Pony by offering a perfect blend of excellent recent form and strong course history. The former Florida Gator is notoriously streaky, but has found his groove at the perfect time of the season. Horschel has been on fire in the FedEx Cup playoffs, logging a T11 at the Wyndham, a T3 at the Northern Trust, and a T3 at the BMW Championship. He was forced to withdraw mid-round at the Dell Technologies with an illness, but his performance at the BMW should relieve any concerns we might have about that.

In addition to his trending form, Horschel has a tremendous track record at East Lake. He logged a T7 in 2013 and won the TOUR Championship in 2014. That win and his hot play in the playoffs, helped Horschel capture the 2014 FedEx Cup title. His performances over the last few weeks are eerily similar to the run he made in '14. Horschel has been striking the ball at a world-class level. The stat engine at Fantasy National helps us to zero-in on recent trends and we find that Horschel in first in the TOUR Championship field in both Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Approach over his last 12 rounds. Pretty impressive stuff when you consider those stats are compared to the best 30 golfers in the world. The thing that's helped Horschel find this high gear is the cooperation of his streaky putter. He ranks 12th among the TOUR Championship field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 12 rounds.

Horschel will draw lots of DFS attention this week. His recent play and affordable price will put him on plenty of radars. He is practically a "free square" on FanDuel, as well as being cheap on DraftKings. We will need to use Horschel carefully and attempt to differentiate in other spots, as he should be a popular option this week.

Paul Casey (DK - $6,800 & FD - $9,100)

As I mentioned in the intro, we must be a little creative in our thinking this week. Paul Casey interests me more for game theory reasons than anything he's done on the course recently. After arguably the best PGA Tour season of his career, that included a win at the Valspar Championship back in March, Casey's play has nosedived over the last month. The Englishman didn't play well in The Open Championship and missed the cut at the PGA Championship with an ugly performance. He then struggled at the Northern Trust before somewhat righting the ship with a T21 at the Dell Technologies.

Things get interesting for me at the BMW Championship, where Casey carded three sub-70 rounds before withdrawing prior to the final round with a "back injury". I'm hopeful that casual fans will check out Casey's game log, see the 69th place finish at the BMW, notice that he withdrew with an injury and skip over him. While Casey isn't a lock this week, the truth is he played much better than his 69th place finish indicates and the "back injury" was a result of extensive rain delays that forced the BMW into a Monday finish.

Casey is the type of player that can right the ship quickly and his game appeared to be trending up at the BMW. His course history at East Lake is elite, as Casey has rattled off three consecutive Top-5's in the TOUR Championship since 2015. The Englishman's kryptonite has always been the flatstick and Fantasy National confirms that is short game has been the source of his recent woes. Casey ranks at or near the bottom of the field in both Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Around the Green over his last 12 rounds. So if he can figure a few things out with the flatstick at East Lake, we could see an immediate jump in his results.

I'm willing to gamble on Casey repeating his success at East Lake in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. The Englishman isn't a sure thing, but in a week that will require high finishes by every player in our lineup, I like the sneaky upside that Casey brings to the table. Trying to pinpoint DFS ownership in a 30-player field is difficult, but we can hope that Casey's recent form and WD at the BMW Championship lower his ownership levels this week.

 

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

 

Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer

Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.

Sign Up Now!

 

Fantasy National Golf Club

Fantasy National Golf Club

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs With Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal With Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
Grayson Murphy

Could Provide Rotational Pass-Rush Depth
Joe Andreessen

in a Good Position to Compete for Backup Job
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Bhayshul Tuten

Needs to Improve Pass Protection
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
EDM

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact With Oilers
SEA

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
PHI

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NYI

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NJ

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
SJ

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish