NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 6) - Targets and Avoids

October 13, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

How could a team not score a touchdown in a game? One week, okay it's just one week. But two games in a row?!? The New England Patriots have not scored a touchdown in the last two games and last 10 quarters. In recent years, the NFL has changed the rules to favor the offense. And yet, teams still cannot score. There have been five weeks so far and each week has seen at least one team not score a touchdown. New England though, may be the worst offense in all of football. Just look at this stat.

It's been only five weeks in Foxborough and it's going to be a long long season. Survivor leagues went unscathed Sunday, but Thursday night is where the bulk of eliminations took place. The Chicago Bears thoroughly dominated the Washington Commanders. I advised avoiding Washington because of the near impossibility of predicting how they play. The two main teams to target, the Lions and Dolphins, rolled. The other option was the Packers and they did everything to blow that game.

There are some big favorites next week, but just a heads-up, Week 7 is looking near-impossible. So enjoy the options this week because next week could cause a lot of damage.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 6

• Bills -14 vs. Giants
• Dolphins -13.5 vs. Panthers
• Chiefs -10.5 vs. Broncos
• Eagles -7 at Jets
• Rams -7 vs. Cardinals

Teams on bye: Packers, Steelers

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 6

Bills (-14) vs. Giants

The line is extremely high, not just because of how good Buffalo is and how bad the G-Men are, but because Daniel Jones may not play. He suffered a neck injury against the Dolphins and as of this writing on Tuesday, his status is unclear. Even if Jones does play, he and their offense won't be able to keep up with Buffalo on Sunday night.

They have scored just one touchdown in the first half this season, and that came on a 102-yard interception return touchdown just before halftime. The Giants scored no offensive touchdowns Sunday and have not done so since Week 4 against the 49ers. The Giants have scored five offensive touchdowns in five games. That's one per game. In today's NFL, how can you expect to win by scoring one offensive touchdown per game? It's really abysmal.

Buffalo is third in yards per play and third in points per game with 31.8. When Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs get going, they keep pouring it on. There is no letting up. And they won't take their foot off the pedal with the Giants ranking 31st in opponent yards per play.

They did have a bad game in London, but the Jaguars are a good team who were playing their second consecutive game across the pond. Buffalo will bounce back. The only question is whether you save the Bills for another week. As I said, next week could eliminate many entries. The Bills travel to Foxborough to play the Patriots. The look-ahead line on that game is 7.5.

Bills 41 - Giants 17

Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Panthers

Miami is just electric. Their offense is averaging 8.3 yards per play, which is a full two yards more than the second-best team. When they get to the red zone, the Dolphins are scoring a touchdown on 76 percent of their opportunities, also the best in the league. I've seen some people say it's like The Greatest Show on Turf but these players are just so much faster. On Sunday, Miami was up 17-10 to start the second half after a 102-yard pick-six by the Giants. But then Cheetah was unleashed.

And it's not like a defense could even get to Tua Tagovailoa. He throws the ball so quickly that he's only been sacked six times all season, four of those came in the loss to Buffalo.

The Panthers are a disaster. Week after week, Carolina's brass must be shaking their heads wondering how they traded a monster haul for the number one pick only to draft Bryce Young.

There are so many problems with this team and they don't even have their first-round pick this year because they traded that for the number one pick. Unless Young can show signs of promise and make some plays, the Panthers have a years-long rebuild ahead of them.

This week though, I don't want to say they stand no chance because it's the NFL and anything can happen, but they really stand no chance.

Dolphins 42 - Panthers 20

So the question is which team do you go with, Buffalo or Miami? The Bills still have two games against the Patriots, Bucs, and Broncos. The Dolphins have games against the Patriots, Raiders, and Commanders. Buffalo has an easier schedule and more options to use. Plus, I like the idea of keeping the Bills open for next week in New England. Additionally, I'd rather use the Fins earlier than late. Tua is more injury-prone than Josh Allen is.

Chiefs (-10.5) vs. Broncos

There's really not much to say about this Thursday night game. Even without Travis Kelce, the Chiefs will roll. How could the Broncos slow down KC with the worst defense in terms of yards per play with seven?

There are a few other spots you could use KC; Week 8 in Denver, Week 12 in Las Vegas, and Week 14 in New England.

Chiefs 33 - Broncos 20

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 6

Rams (-6.5) vs. Cardinals

This has sucker bet written all over it. Vegas is begging you to put the Rams in a six or 6.5-point teaser with another team, meaning the Rams just need to win the game. It looks too easy. The Rams still have not put together a complete 60-minute game. In Week 1 they trailed Seattle at half before running away in the second.

Week 2 saw the Rams score no touchdowns in the second half against the Niners. In Week 3, The Rams could not score a touchdown until the last two minutes against the Bengals. They nearly blew a 20-0 halftime lead in Indy before scoring a touchdown in overtime to win 26-20. And last week, they were shut out against the Eagles in the second half. So besides for Week 1 and not including the OT touchdown in Week 4, the Rams could not score a touchdown in both halves.

Arizona has lost two games in a row by double-digits and some are wondering if their gig is up. Running back James Conner is out multiple weeks. Emari Demercado is in line to get more carries. Joshua Dobbs will have to really step up, but his dual-threat ability will give the Rams trouble. Anthony Richardson ran for 56 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago and this past week, Jalen Hurts ran for 72 yards on 15 carries.

Cardinals 24 - Rams 21

49ers (-5.5) at Browns

San Francisco is the toast of the town and rightly so. They have dominated in every game so far. There has not been one game where it came down to the last possession. They're number two in yards per play, and third in opponent yards per play. There really is no weakness with this team. But I wonder what will happen when they get behind and Brock Purdy has to play catch-up.

Cleveland is off a bye and Deshaun Watson is expected to be back. The Niners have a great defense but the Browns could be better. They're slightly better in opponent yards per play and number one in third-down defense.

This will be a low-scoring game and that heavily favors Cleveland.

Browns 20 - 49ers 16

Eagles (-7) at Jets

Philadelphia has done nothing wrong this season. They are a perfect 5-0 and continue to take care of business. It may not be pretty but they continue to win. The only holes they really have are within their secondary but will Zach Wilson be able to take advantage?

The Jets defense is very good and I'm very interested to see their plan to stop the Philly offense. I have a weird feeling about this game, especially with the Jets heading into their bye week. Plus, the Eagles are a team you want to save, if you can.

Jets 24 - Eagles 23

NFL Best Bets for Week 6

• Browns (+5.5) vs. 49ers
• Cowboys (-2) at Chargers
• Jets (+7) vs. Eagles

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2023 season: 8-7
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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