RADIO
Week 6 of the NFL season is here. We're a little under one-third of the way through the year, and it's crazy how fast it seems to go. These teams are starting to settle into their offenses more and more with each passing week. While that makes it easier for us to determine which players we need to be looking at, the books are also getting sharper on us going the other way. It's a battle of us vs them, and I'm wanting us to come out on top every single week.
Week 5 was bad. There are no two ways around it. An 0-5 week is unacceptable. I got a little too cute with the calls, and that's on me. Tee Higgins essentially didn't play in the game due to his ankle injury, and we saw Jamaal Williams get game scripted out after the team fell behind. Devin Singletary got an early rest, and the Jacksonville Jaguars just stopped utilizing James Robinson midway through the game for some reason. We're bouncing back this week.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5
Jeff Wilson
O65.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -110
Early on this season, the best way to move the ball on the Atlanta Falcons has been through the air. They’re 17th in rushing yards allowed per game overall and 13th in rushing yards allowed to running backs. Despite that, we’re going to attack them in that way for this prop. Since taking over as the starter in Week 2, Wilson has hit this line in all four of his starts, and he’s been the only true running back on the roster that has played more than 39 percent in any of those games. This team’s identity is its running game, and Wilson is the face of that identity right now.
The Falcons appear to have strong numbers against the run, but they require a bit of context to observe them correctly. In Week 1, the New Orleans Saints had to completely abandon the run after falling behind early. In Week 2, they faced a Los Angeles Rams offense that hasn’t shown the ability to run the ball at all through five weeks, and in Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were moving the ball at will through the air. In Atlanta’s other two matchups, they faced the Cleveland Browns and Seattle Seahawks where they gave up 280 yards on 50 carries to opposing running backs, which works out to 5.6 yards per attempt. Wilson and this 49ers offense could explode in this one.
O68.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
We’re going to the sky on this one. Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans remains the top option on this offense. Despite missing a game and a half, he is still 3rd on the team in targets and receptions, but he has 122 more receiving yards than anyone else while also leading the team in touchdowns. Evans has also hit this mark in three of the four contests he’s played thus far while falling just eight yards short in the game he was ejected against the Saints.
Evans draws the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6. The Steelers haven’t been great against the pass this season, as they’re 18th by DVOA, and they’re coming off a game where they gave up 424 yards through the air to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, including 273 yards to the Bills' top two wideouts. Currently, Tampa Bay ranks eighth by DVOA as a passing offense compared to 29th running the ball. The best way for them to win this game is through the air with Evans being heavily featured.
U48.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -120
We’re looking to the opposite sideline for our second prop of the week. I usually like to get five different games involved for the picks each week, but I wasn’t trying to be too cute with it on this one. I like this play for a couple of reasons. For one, a big game for Wilson likely means that Allgeier isn’t running as much with his team trailing. For two, the 49ers' defense has been phenomenal of late. Last week, Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier came up just short of this mark and was splitting carries nearly 50-50 with his fellow running backs with starter Cordarrelle Patterson on the shelf. Patterson is down again this week, but I think Allgeier will likely be splitting carries again.
The Falcons have had their starting running backs play right around 60 percent of the snaps this season whether that was Patterson or Allgeier. San Francisco ranks 1st against the run by DVOA, and they have a 6.4-point gap between them and the 2nd-place Indianapolis Colts. Atlanta wants to run the ball, but they’re going to struggle to do that against this front. Assuming the game script leads to a lot of work for Wilson, we’ll likely see less running work for Allgeier with Atlanta playing from behind.
Mason Crosby
O2.5 Extra Points Made
Sportsbook: Caesars
Odds: -125
The Green Bay Packers just got embarrassed last week when their team collapsed in the second half of their loss in London to the New York Giants. Now, they’re heading home for a matchup with the frisky New York Jets, and it is the perfect get-right spot for both of these units. As a result, we could see an uptick for kicker Mason Crosby. Green Bay has scored three touchdowns just once this season, in the Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears. Green Bay’s offense has struggled in the red zone, but they can get that figured out here.
The Jets have been frisky, but they still have a lot of growing up to do. On defense, 21st in DVOA, and they rank 26th in red-zone defense with teams scoring touchdowns on 68.8 percent of their possessions. Green Bay is tied for ninth in red zone scoring opportunities with 3.6 per game, and they’ve had four drives where they got inside the opponent’s 10-yard line where they failed to score at all. Green Bay just needs one or two things to go their way for Mason to get three extra-point opportunities to go through.
Devin Duvernay
O37.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Devin Duvernay is projected to be the lead wide receiver again with teammate Rashod Bateman (foot) still out with an injury. In the meantime, Duvernay has been thriving as the top option. Last week, he had seven targets, catching five of them 54 yards to go with three carries for 24 yards. The offense was finding ways to get involved however they could. Outside of tight end Mark Andrews, no pass-catcher saw more than two targets other than Duvernay. He is THE receiving option with Bateman out.
The Giants are 4-1 and riding high after knocking off the Packers, but they still have to prove that they’re legit. I don’t think that this secondary is, especially with injuries littering the entire roster. They give up nearly 80 yards per game to opposing WR1s, and Duvernay is going to be constantly fed targets. He’s hit this mark in four out of five games this season, and I think he can go five for six this week.
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