RADIO
Welcome to the Week 14 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
This Sunday marks the last big bye week of the season, with six teams off the schedule. When also factoring in the three usual primetime games, we have a reduced player pool due to only 10 games on the main slate. We're dealing with a number of games that have depressed projected totals and weather can also always be an inhibitor of offense this time of year, but we still have some solid value plays to work with at every position.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Jared Goff, DET vs MIN | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $28
Goff came through in fine fashion as a value suggestion in Week 13, and the good news is his salaries have only risen marginally across all three sites. Goff, by his own assessment, is playing some of the best ball of his career, and his recent numbers bear that out -- the veteran signal-caller just put together his third 300-yard effort of the season Sunday and has thrown for 981 yards with a 5:0 TD:INT over his last four games, completing just under 70.0 percent of throws in the sample. He now gets a crack at a Vikings defense that's been vulnerable to the pass all season and that Goff already enjoyed success against earlier this season.
Goff threw for 277 yards with a touchdown and an interception against Minnesota back in Week 3, a game the Lions nearly pulled out at U.S. Bank Stadium before falling by a 28-24 score. Minnesota comes in allowing an NFC-high 274.4 passing yards per road game, along with 11.4 yards per completion. The Vikes have also conceded a robust 67.8 percent completion rate when traveling, while their 30 sacks rank them only middle of the pack in that category. They're also tied for fourth-most DK points per game (21.7) surrendered to QBs and have given up the most passing yards to the position (3,595), making Goff a highly appealing play at his salaries.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. JAC | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $26
Tannehill may be somewhat of a forgotten quarterback this week, as those who consider any members of the Titans will likely go toward Derrick Henry first and foremost, considering his history against the Jaguars. Additionally, Tannehill will be without star rookie Treylon Burks (concussion) in his pass-catching arsenal. However, the veteran quarterback usually carries a very solid floor, and his matchup is exponentially better by the numbers than Henry's. Moreover, Tannehill is averaging a solid 15.2 DK/15 FD/ 14.8 Yahoo points per game at home, where he's also thrown just one interception in five games.
The Jaguars are surrendering 295.6 passing yards per road game, along with 11.2 yards per completion in that split. Jacksonville is also yielding a markedly higher completion rate when traveling (67.3%) than at home (57.9%), and the Jags have conceded the sixth-most passing yards (3,176) to quarterbacks while mustering a middling 19 sacks. What's more, Jacksonville has given up a robust 64-306-2 line on the ground to QBs, a vulnerability the still very mobile Tannehill can take advantage of.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Tom Brady, TB at SF | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $25
DK-only Special: Kirk Kirk Cousins, MIN at DET | $6,100
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Miles Sanders, PHI at NYG | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $21
Sanders could very well be neglected a bit by DFS players this week after the Jalen Hurts-A.J. Brown-DeVonta Smith trio put on a show in Week 13 against the Titans, but the matchup lines up a lot better for the talented back than it does for Philly's vaunted passing attack. The Giants are a bit more vulnerable through the air with Adoree' Jackson (knee) sidelined by a knee injury, but New York is still a far more attackable defense on the ground and in short-area passes to running backs/tight ends. Sanders also is well-equipped to take advantage of the G-Men's vulnerabilities to red-zone rushing production, as he's scored a career-high nine TDs and has 32 red-zone touches in 12 games.
New York is surrendering an NFC-high 158.3 rushing yards per home game, along with an NFL-high 5.5 yards per carry there. The G-Men are also yielding an NFC-high 5.1 RB yards per carry, and they're ranked No. 30, No. 24 and No. 31 in Football Outsiders' Stuffed, Second Level and Open Field categories, respectively. Additionally, the Giants have allowed 10 red-zone rushing touchdowns and the second-most red-zone scoring attempts per home game (3.9), a combination of metrics that certainly favors Sanders and his formidable role near the goal line.
D'Andre Swift, DET vs. MIN | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $16
Swift was finally off the injury report heading into the Week 13 contest against the Jaguars and did indeed look fully healthy, accruing 111 total yards from scrimmage while generating 21.1 DK/19.1 FD and Yahoo points. Swift notably logged his highest number of carries (14) since Week 1, a sign he could indeed be ready to finally assume a true lead-back role or something very closely approximating it. Factoring in his significant pass-catching acumen, Swift lines up as an all-around stellar value option at his salaries in the game with the highest projected total of the slate.
As vulnerable as the Vikings have been against the pass, they've been no great shakes versus the run on the road, where they're allowing 131.8 rushing yards per road game at 4.8 yards per carry. The Vikes have also been one of the most generous teams in the league in terms of allowing receiving production to running backs, conceding a fruitful 73-573-2 line through the air to the position, which certainly bodes well for a player of Swift's pass-catching prowess if he continues to see his snaps increase. Finally, consider Swift has 23 red-zone touches in nine games, while the Vikes have allowed 12 RZ rushing touchdowns and another nine through the air.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Isiah Pacheco, KC at DEN | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $19; D'Onta Foreman, CAR at SEA | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $23
DK/Yahoo Special: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. HOU | DK: $6,100, Yahoo: $24
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. TB | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $20
Aiyuk turned in a bit of an underwhelming effort in Week 13 against the Dolphins, but the fact Jimmy Garoppolo exited early with what turned out to be a fractured foot could certainly have played a part in that. Now having had a chance to get some work in with rookie signal-caller Brock Purdy -- both versus Miami and during practice this week -- Aiyuk could be a solid value option versus a Buccaneers secondary that is hampered by injury and that's been inconsistent on occasion. Aiyuk also still encouragingly drew nine targets with Purdy playing most of the game versus the Dolphins, so the duo has a good start on building their rapport.
The Buccaneers are likely to be missing both starting safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards due to ankle and hamstring injuries, respectively, which naturally gives Aiyuk's outlook a boost. Additionally, all his peripheral metrics support his case at his salaries, as the third-year wideout is laying claim to 30% of the Niners' air yards and just under 22% of targets, and he's also being targeted on a solid 23% of his routes. With Purdy undoubtedly looking for some sure-handed targets to pepper in his first start, Aiyuk should be in for a busy afternoon again.
Adam Thielen, MIN at DET | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $20
Thielen is a bit of a forgotten man these days in a Vikings attack that's heavily focused on Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and even newcomer T.J. Hockenson, but the veteran wideout still has plenty of upside at his current salaries. Thielen also hasn't been neglected by Kirk Cousins, who still leans heavily on him as a short/mid-range target and has sent 83 passes his way over 12 games this season. Thielen posted a 9-61-1 line just two games ago versus the Patriots on Thanksgiving, and he also touched up Detroit for a 6-61-1 tally back in Week 3.
The Lions have allowed 275.3 passing yards per home game, along with a co-NFL-high 11.6 yards per completion in that split. Then, Detroit has surrendered the third-most receiving yards to wideouts (2,256) and 11 touchdowns on the way to conceding 40.5 DK/31.5 FD points per game to the position. Thielen is laying claim to a solid 26% of the team's air yards and 19.5% of its targets, and he's still logged an encouraging 33 targets over the first five games following Hockenson's arrival.
DJ Chark, DET vs. MIN | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $18
Chark represents some highly cost-effective exposure to the Vikings-Lions clash, and he's one of the members of Detroit's high-flying offense that's firmly on an upward trajectory. Chark finally seems to have left his nagging ankle issues behind him, producing a 7-114-1 line on 11 targets over the last two games while drawing a target on a whopping 35.5% of his routes during that span. The speedster now gets access to the same questionable Minnesota secondary that was already discussed in Goff's entry, and his massive 18.1-yard aDOT certainly gives him the opportunity to justify his very modest salaries on just one or two plays.
In addition to the metrics already cited, it's worth noting the Vikings have also given up an NFL-high 2,436 receiving yards to wideouts on their way to allowing 41.2 DK/32.2 FD points per game to the position. Receivers are averaging 13.8 yards per grab against Minnesota, which certainly bodes well for a downfield threat like Chark, who also carries the appeal of being part of an offense that has an implied team total of just under 27 points leading up to kickoff.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN vs. JAC | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $14
Tight End DFS Value Plays
T.J. Hockenson, MIN at DET | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $22
Hockenson is undoubtedly going to be a popular choice with the reduced number of games on the slate, his expected solid role in the game with the highest projected total and his incentive-laden matchup against his old team. However, he's the type of chalk that's certainly worth rolling the dice on at his salaries and then differentiating elsewhere on your roster, especially considering he's logged between six and 10 targets in each of his first five games in Minnesota.
The talented tight end faces a Lions team that's allowed a 60-649-8 line to tight ends, with the touchdown tally the second highest in the league. Detroit is giving up 14.4 DK/11.9 FD points per game to the position overall, and Hockenson, who's seeing less downfield work than in past seasons but can certainly still motor down the seam and up the sideline for big gains, should be in position to exploit the Lions' penchant for giving up plenty of yards per completion that was already enumerated in Thielen's entry.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. JAC | DK: $2,700, FD: $4,800, Yahoo: $10
Okonkwo has started to pick up a little buzz this week as the industry begins to catch on to the field-stretching ability of the rookie, but at his salaries and what should still be a relatively low rostering rate, he makes for a very low-risk value play that can certainly be the key to rostering one more high-end player than you otherwise would be able to. Okonkwo has been rattling off chunk plays all season, averaging 18.3 yards per reception and taking five of his 15 catches for at least 20 yards.
The Jaguars make for an especially appealing matchup in that regard, as they've given up a wide-receiver-like 13.7 yards per grab to tight ends. Jacksonville has yielded the sixth-most receiving yards to the position overall (685), and Okonkwo should also benefit from the absence of Burks, which will open up more targets for the rest of Tennessee's pass-catching corps. Additionally, the Jaguars' questionable pass-defense metrics cited in Tannehill's entry certainly help buttress Okonkwo's case at salaries that are about as miniscule as it gets for a player of his upside.
ALSO CONSIDER:
George Kittle, SF vs. TB | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $19
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