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Scott Cullen provides his NFL DFS prop picks for December 12th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
The streaking Baltimore Ravens are riding high and host the New York Jets in Thursday Night Football.
The Ravens have won nine straight games on the way to an 11-2 record, and quarterback Lamar Jackson is the favorite for the league’s Most Valuable Player award. While the rest of the league has been focused on passing, the Ravens are averaging 200.9 rushing yards per game, 51.8 more yards per game than the second-highest team’s rushing total.
The Jets aren’t contenders but they have won four of the past five games, showing some signs of life as the season winds down. Running back Le’Veon Bell hasn’t lived up to expectations but quarterback Sam Darnold has been making progress and the receiving corps of Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson does give him some options.
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Here are some angles to consider before making Monkey Knife Fight prop picks for the Thursday nighter.
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N.Y. JETS-BALTIMORE
OVER/UNDERS
Lamar Jackson UNDER 184.5 PASSING YARDS – This seems like an absurdly low number for an MVP-favored quarterback, yet here we are. Jackson has been held under 180 passing yards in five of his past seven games. He’s going against a Jets Defense that allows 242.0 passing yards per game, which is in the middle of the pack, but the Jets only allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which is the seventh-best rate in the league, so maybe Jackson’s passing yardage will stay relatively modest.
Lamar Jackson OVER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS – There may not be a more compelling matchup in this game than having the best running quarterback of this generation going against the team with the league’s best run defense this season. As bad as the Jets have been, they are allowing 78.8 rushing yards per game, at an average of 3.0 yards per carry. How impressive is that run defense?
The last time a team finished a season allowing 3.0 yards per carry was the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers, with Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior, James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley at linebacker and Troy Polamalu at strong safety along with Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton and Ziggy Hood on the defensive line. That’s a formidable group, and this year’s Jets have been just as strong against the run. And yet, Jackson is averaging 78.5 rushing yards per game and if the passing game isn’t going to explode, the Ravens will have to find a way to run against this defense and Jackson’s fantastic skills in this aspect of the game could make the difference.
Sam Darnold OVER 222.5 PASSING YARDS – While the Ravens have a strong defense, allowing 219.0 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt, there are a couple of factors working in Darnold’s favor. First is that the Jets passing attack has shown improvement with Darnold averaging 267.8 passing yards per game in the past six games. The second factor is that the Jets are very likely to be trailing in this game which will mean they should be passing from start to finish, which would give Darnold the opportunity to put up those numbers.
Mark Ingram OVER 13.5 FANTASY POINTS – While the Jets do have a formidable run defense they have allowed the eight-fewest fantasy points to running backs, which is still very good, but not as dominant as the per-game and per-carry rushing totals and if Ingram can punch in one touchdown this number becomes much more achievable.
RAPID FIRE
Le’Veon Bell -0.5 receptions vs. Jamison Crowder – While Crowder might have a higher ceiling under the right circumstances, he also has seven receptions in the past three games, which means that the floor is relatively low, too. Both players are averaging 4.6 receptions per game so this is more about Jamison’s recent downturn in productivity.
Robby Anderson -10.5 receiving yards vs. Marquise Brown – Through the first half of the season, Anderson was entirely underwhelming but he’s picked up his production in the past three games, accumulating 304 receiving yards. On the other hand, Brown has been okay for more of the season, a decent rookie season, but he has four catches for minus-1 yard in the past two games.
Marquise Brown -2.5 fantasy points vs. Willie Snead – Even with his recent downturn in production, Brown should be a more reliable option than Snead, who hasn’t had more than two receptions in a game since Week 6. Snead does have three touchdowns in the past three games. He also has three touchdowns in the past nine games.
