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Scott Cullen provides his Week 10 NFL DFS prop picks for November 10th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Week 10 in the National Football League is a challenging one for fantasy players because there are six teams on a bye week and that can make the pickings relatively slim.
There are some compelling games, though. Patrick Mahomes is due back in the lineup for the Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee. The Sunday nighter is a quality matchup with the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants and the Jets play for the title of Worst New York Football Team.
The leaner schedule might make the week more challenging but there are always opportunities available to analyze the situation and make the right selections.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Matt Ryan OVER 296.5 PASSING YARDS – There is some statistical upside to losing every week and, for Matt Ryan, it’s based around the throwing the ball a lot. Ryan is averaging 40.7 passes per game and that has helped him average a career-high 310 passing yards per game (despite being held to 159 passing yards in his last outing, in Week 7 vs. the Rams). He’s also averaging 303 passing yards in 21 career games against New Orleans. At the same time, the Saints are allowing 232.3 passing yards per game and 7.1 passing yards per attempt, so they won’t make it easy, but Ryan has topped 300 yards in six of seven starts this season and the likelihood that he will need to throw a lot weighs in his favor.
Drew Brees OVER 295.5 PASSING YARDS – Although Brees has played in just two complete games so far this season, he has thrown for at least 370 yards in both of them. Facing an Atlanta defense that is giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, and 261.1 passing yards per game, is not enough reason to believe that the Falcons will be able to keep Brees and the Saints under wraps.
Matthew Stafford OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bears Defense is great but Stafford has been firing on all cylinders lately, averaging 333.6 passing yards in his past five games. With questions surrounding the Lions running game, it’s all the more reason to keep the ball in Stafford’s hands and let him guide the Lions offense through the air.
Sam Darnold OVER 258.5 PASSING YARDS – It’s not very easy to like Darnold, who has thrown for 259 or more yards twice in five starts this season, but he’s facing a Giants Defense that is abysmal against the pass, allowing a league-worst 8.9 passing yards per attempt. That’s enough reason to believe that Darnold could get to 260 or more.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 317.5 PASSING YARDS – Before Week 7, when he was forced to leave the game after throwing 11 passes, Mahomes was averaging 350.7 passing yards per game, putting up numbers that made him look like a video game come to life. In his return to the lineup, he faces a Titans team that is decent defensively, allowing 7.1 passing yards per attempt and 236.3 passing yards per game. Coming off injury, it might be best to exercise some caution.
Jameis Winston OVER 310.5 PASSING YARDS – In the past six games, Winston has thrown for at least 330 yards four times and he’s facing a Cardinals Defense that is one of the league’s worst against the pass, allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 280.7 passing yards per game.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -2.5 receptions vs. Golden Tate – Thomas is the league’s most productive receiver, averaging 9.2 receptions per game, and looked like he didn’t miss a beat when Drew Brees returned for the Saints last week. Tate is a big part of the Giants offense now, in part because of injuries to Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, and has recorded at least six catches in four straight games. Still, Thomas’ ceiling gives him the chance to put this category out of reach.
Nick Chubb +1.5 rushing yards vs. Saquon Barkley – As great as Barkley may be, he’s averaged 54.7 rushing yards per game in three games since returning from his ankle injury and faces a Jets Defense that is actually rather stout against the run, giving up 3.1 yards per carry and 89.3 rushing yards per game. Chubb, on the other hand, has been a threat all season and has averaged 111 rushing yards per game in the past six. He’s also going against a Bills team that isn’t great against the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 111.6 rushing yards per game, so there should be room for Chubb to get loose.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Mason Rudolph UNDER 237.5 PASSING YARDS – The Steelers are back to .500 and Rudolph keeps them competitive but he’s also surpassed 237 passing yards once in five starts and it was against Miami. This week’s matchup with the Rams may not be so easy.
Jacoby Brissett UNDER 220.5 PASSING YARDS – Assuming that Brissett is healthy enough to play, he has a chance at going over because he faces a Dolphins team that has problems everywhere, including pass defense, which allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 251.6 passing yards per game. The rub here, however, is that the Colts’ receiving corps is perilously thin. With T.Y. Hilton and rookie Parris Campbell injured, Zach Pascal is the top wide receiver and the tight end duo of Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle are the next two priority targets.
Kyle Allen UNDER 239.5 PASSING YARDS – The Packers Defense isn’t strong against the pass (8.1 yards per pass attempt, 251.2 passing yards per game) but Allen has thrown for 240 yards or more once in six starts and it was his first start of the season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 239.5 PASSING YARDS – It’s not easy to be productive on a talent-starved team but Fitzpatrick has thrown for more than 280 yards in two of his past three starts and he faces a Colts Defense that runs middle of the pack in terms of pass defense.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Just when it looked like Rodgers had found his groove, he was held to a season-low 161 passing yards against the Chargers last week and now faces a Panthers team that is allowing 227 passing yards per game along with 6.7 passing yards per attempt.
RAPID FIRE
Cooper Kupp -5.5 receiving yards vs. Davante Adams – Both receivers are facing quality pass defenses, with Kupp facing the Pittsburgh Steelers and Adams going against the Carolina Panthers, so opposition shouldn’t have a significant affect on this situation. Adams has a high ceiling but has played just one game since returning from injury and had seven catches for 41 yards. Cupp also has a high ceiling, which he may have hit last week when he hauled in seven passes for 220 yards and a touchdown, his fifth 100-yard game of the season.
Christian McCaffrey +6.5 rushing yards vs. Marlon Mack – There are some weeks in which McCaffrey fills out his stat sheet with receiving yards but he’s run for at least 90 yards in six of eight games so far this season. Mack has topped 90 yards just twice this season but he’s going against Miami, an opportunity to pad those rushing stats while, at least theoretically, running out the clock. Still, McCaffrey is averaging 110.1 rushing yards per game and that’s tough to overcome.
