NFL Coaching Matters: NFC North Preview

July 16, 2023

NFL Head Coaches and Offensive Coordinators can have a major impact on fantasy football values. This article by Eli Grabanski brings up historical data on key NFC North coaches.

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

Today's article will look at the fantasy track record of each team's head coaches and offensive coordinators in the NFC North to help pinpoint potential fantasy values. This is a unique division in that all the key offensive coaches are back from the 2022-23 season.

Without further ado, let's dive into the coaches of the NFC North!

Minnesota Vikings

2023 Head Coach: Kevin O'Connell

Kevin O'Connell has previously worked as an offensive coordinator for Washington (2019) and Los Angeles Rams (2020-2021), and has been the Minnesota Vikings head coach since 2022. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Minnesota Vikings players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Kevin O'Connell's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Wes Phillips

Wes Phillips has worked as an offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings since 2022. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Minnesota Vikings players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Wes Phillips's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Kevin O'Connell & Wes Phillips's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Wes Phillips has only served as an offensive coordinator as a part of Kevin O'Connell's coaching staff, this section will primarily focus on what fantasy production we've seen from the offenses that Kevin O'Connell has been a part of as an offensive coordinator or head coach.

Looking at O'Connell's data for 0.5 PPR formats, there are a couple of trends to pay attention to. First, Kevin O'Connell has never had a running back room that has produced at an average level for fantasy purposes. Never. Secondly, O'Connell's offense has generally been good at getting fantasy production out of his wide receiver room – especially in the past two seasons. Lastly, O'Connell's tight end rooms have been up and down from a fantasy perspective over the course of his career with his career average being slightly below the NFL league averages.

Based on this information:

• Don't get overly excited about Alexander Mattison even with Dalvin Cook gone. The ceiling for a Minnesota running back is an RB2 in this offense.
• Justin Jefferson is the safest bet of all fantasy players for next season in this offense
• Jordan Addison and/or K.J. Osborn will have a legitimate shot to put up FLEX caliber numbers and are good dice rolls late in fantasy drafts
• T.J. Hockenson is going to be one of the biggest risk/reward picks in all of fantasy at his current ADP. He balled out at the end of last year in this offense, but Kevin O'Connell's prior track record with fantasy tight ends was mediocre at best. If you're betting on him it should be because you believe in the talent not necessarily the situation.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, Kene Nwangwu, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn, Jalen Reagor, Jalen Nailor, T.J. Hockenson, and Josh Oliver

Chicago Bears

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Luke Getsy

Luke Getsy has been the Chicago Bears' offensive coordinator since 2022. Given his offensive background, let's take a look at some of Getsy's team offensive statistics over the course of his 17-game career in an offensive coordinator role to get a better understanding of how the Bears may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Luke Getsy's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Luke Getsy's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is a defensive-minded coach, we'll talk about offensive coordinator Luke Getsy's in this section.

It's hard to get a fair read on Getsy's current fantasy impact because the Bears severely lacked talent and were the worst team in the league last year, which is a large reason why they were below average at every fantasy position outside of QB. Looking ahead to next season, it's likely:

• We see an ugly RB committee of D'Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson that results in nobody finishing in the top 30 at the position.
• D.J. Moore is the only WR with a shot at fantasy relevance, but even he's too expensive in fantasy drafts for his projected fantasy output in this offense
• Cole Kmet is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 again

Fantasy Relevant Players: Justin Fields, PJ Walker, Nathan Peterman, D'Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer, DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Equanimeous St. Brown, Cole Kmet, and Robert Tonyan

Detroit Lions

2023 Head Coach: Dan Campbell

Dan Campbell has been the Detroit Lions' head coach since the 2021 NFL season. Prior to joining the Lions, Campbell played tight end for ten years in the NFL, spending time with the New York Giants (1999-2002), Dallas Cowboys (2003-2005), and Detroit Lions (2006-2008). After his playing career, he joined the Miami Dolphins coaching staff initially as an offensive coaching intern (2010) before becoming the team's tight ends coach (2011-2015).

During the 2015 NFL season, head coach Joe Philbin was fired after a 1-3 start for the Dolphins and Dan Campbell served as the team's interim head coach for the rest of the season, going 5-7 over their last 12 games. Over the next five seasons, Campbell served as the New Orleans Saints assistant head coach and tight ends coach (2016-2020) before becoming the Lions' head coach in 2021.

Given his offensive background, let's dive into some fantasy statistics from Campbell's experiences running an offense to better understand how the Lions may utilize their offensive players in 2023.

Above are the number of fantasy points that Dan Campbell's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Ben Johnson

Ben Johnson took over as the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator during the 2022 season, after the team decided to fire Anthony Lynn. He also served as the tight ends coach in 2021 and even worked with Dan Campbell on the offensive play-calling when the team decided to take away offensive play-calling duties from Anthony Lynn during that season. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Detroit Lions players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Ben Johnson's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Dan Campbell & Ben Johnson's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Dan Campbell has more experience in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role and Ben Johnson has only worked under Campbell as an offensive coordinator, we will primarily focus on Campbell's previous tendencies in this section.

There are a couple of trends you can pick up right away on after looking at Dan Campbell's 0.5 PPR data. First, his running back room has consistently been above average in terms of fantasy production. Second, his wide receiver room has been average/slightly above-average for fantasy purposes over the course of his three seasons as a head coach with two good seasons and one bad one. Third, Campbell's tight end room has only had one above-average year thus far, so it's harder to trust his offense to produce a top-of-the-line fantasy tight end.

Based on this information:

• Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both look like good investments at their current ADPs...if one of them misses time the other will be putting up RB1 numbers.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown is still a good building block WR for your fantasy team. Jameson Williams could also be in the FLEX mix once he returns from his suspension.
• Sam LaPorta has a big uphill battle to being anything more than a streamer in year one.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker, Nate Sudfeld, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Craig Reynolds, Jermar Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Marvin Jones Jr., Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Brock Wright, and Sam LaPorta

Green Bay Packers

2023 Head Coach: Matt LaFleur

Matt LaFleur has been the Green Bay Packers' head coach since 2019. Prior to joining the Packers, LaFleur served as an offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams (2017) and Tennessee Titans (2018). Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Green Bay Packers players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Matt LaFleur's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

2023 Offensive Coordinator: Adam Stenavich

Adam Stenavich has worked as an offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers since 2022. Below are some fantasy statistics from his career as an offensive play-caller so we can get a better idea of how to value the Green Bay Packers players in 2023.

Comparison To NFL League Averages

Above are the number of fantasy points that Adam Stenavich's offenses have produced relative to the NFL league averages at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. Below you can see his career net value (sum), yearly average, per-game average, season ceiling (max), and season floor (minimum) in terms of fantasy production compared to the NFL league averages.

Matt LaFleur & Adam Stenavich's Takeaways & Expectations

Because Adam Stenavich has only worked as an offensive coordinator for one year under Matt LaFleur and Matt LaFleur is expected to serve as the team's primary offensive play-caller this section will primarily talk about LaFleur's past fantasy success.

Looking at the data, there are some very clear trends with Matt LaFleur's offenses historically. First off, his running back room has pretty consistently gotten above-average fantasy production, with just one season out of six that was below the NFL league averages. Secondly, LaFleur's tight end room is a pretty safe bet to be below average with just one strong season (2020). Lastly, his wide receiver room has been up and down, with four good seasons and two subpar seasons.

Based on this information:

• Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are good gambles in fantasy drafts – especially since their draft stock has dipped over the course of the past year
• Christian Watson is the only Packers receiver worth considering in fantasy drafts right now
• It's not likely that the Packers will have anyone that is fantasy relevant from their tight end room next year, so don't jump the gun on Luke Musgrave quite yet

Fantasy Relevant Players: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford, Danny Etling, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor, Lew Nichols III, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Samori Toure, Grant DuBose, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Josiah Duguara

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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