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Matt Donnelly's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for the NFC Championship of 2024-25. His lineup advice for the NFC Championship fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Welcome to the NFC Championship preview, an NFC rubber match between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, who split their two regular-season matchups. This week, we are going to do things a little differently. With only four teams remaining, we will break down the matchups and discuss which players fantasy managers can trust in their postseason fantasy lineups.
Philadelphia set up this NFC rubber match after going through both the Packers and the Rams in back-to-back weeks. The Eagles will host the NFC Championship after defeating the Rams 28-22 in the Divisional Round, thanks to a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley, which we should all anticipate once again.
I'm old enough to remember when some did not like my preseason take that Jayden Daniels was the top rookie available at the quarterback position. In the Divisional Round, the Detroit Lions may now agree. Detroit had no answer for Daniels nor the Commanders as Washington outscored the Lions 45-31 to earn their spot in the NFC Championship.
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NFC Championship - Fantasy Football Must-Starts
Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Fun fact: Jayden Daniels is set to become the sixth rookie quarterback and the first quarterback selected with a top-4 draft selection to start a conference championship game since the 1970 merger. Daniels also has tied Ben Roethlisberger for the most wins by a rookie quarterback with 14.
In Daniels' first two postseason appearances, the rookie has completed 46 of 66 passing attempts for 567 yards and four passing touchdowns. Daniels has also added 87 yards on the ground in those two contests.
Still not over this Jayden Daniels throw.
📺: #WASvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/50IEs5lwja— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025
Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith accounted for 10 pressures, five hurries, three sacks, three tackles for loss, and a pair of forced fumbles last Sunday. That was against Matthew Stafford. This week, the Eagles may want to keep Daniels in the pocket.
While the Eagles only allowed 14.47 fantasy points per game to the position this season, Matthew Stafford just threw for 324 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the snow last week. The last time Daniels faced the Eagles, he threw five touchdown passes, threw for 258 yards, and ran for 81 yards, producing 36.4 fantasy points.
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
After Barkley's 205 rushing yards against the Rams in the Divisional Round, he has now run for more than 150 yards in six games this season. Only Earl Campbell and Adrian Peterson accomplished that feat more times in a season (seven) than Barkley has.
When you think of explosive backs in today's game, it's Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Saquon Barkley, who were the only backs to post an explosive run rate greater than seven percent this season. The injury to Jalen Hurts likely means Barkley will see more touches inside the five-yard line, where he only registered 41.5% of the team's carries during the regular season yet finished with 13 rushing touchdowns.
SAQUON BARKLEY 78 YARDS GOOOOODBYE!
📺: #LARvsPHI on NBC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/88LvtJoEFa— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025
Washington allowed 22.01 fantasy points per game to the position this season, and in the two previous meetings, Barkley totaled 348 yards and four touchdowns.
NFC Championship - Fantasy Football Start' Em
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Since Week 3, McLaurin's 1,233 receiving yards trail only Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Ladd McConkey, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Chase is the only pass catcher with more receiving touchdowns than McLaurin's 15 over that period. Since Week 12, McLaurin has 551 receiving yards, a 29.2% first-read target share, averaging 2.02 yards per route run. McLaurin's nine touchdown grabs are also a league-best over that period.
Against the Lions in the Divisional Round, McLaurin caught four of his six targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. With that performance, McLaurin has now gone back-to-back playoff contests with at least 85 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Terry McLaurin has scored a TD on 16.3% of his catches this season.
That's about 1 out of 6. It's outrageous.pic.twitter.com/1BygZOEIHE
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) January 19, 2025
Keep an eye on the injury report this week. Eagles stud cornerback Quinyon Mitchell exited the Divisional Round game in the first quarter due to injury. While McLaurin managed to catch five passes for 60 yards and a score in their last meeting, the potential absence of Mitchell is a huge advantage for this Commanders' passing attack.
Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Jalen Hurts is usually a must-start option. However, I have some reservations after seeing him get folded up like a cheap suit. I'm not a doctor, but there should be some concern regarding Hurts' knee (PCL) moving forward, and I would expect some mobility limitations moving forward.
Washington finished the 2024 season allowing just 15.46 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, the seventh-fewest. They also held Baker Mayfield to 185 passing yards, and while Jared Goff threw for 313 yards, they picked off the Lions quarterback on three occasions.
In Week 16, Hurts left early due to injury, but in Week 11, the Commanders' defense held Hurts to 18 of 28 passing for 221 yards. Hurts did run for a touchdown, but I don't know how effective Hurts can be on the ground this week.
NFC Championship - Fantasy Football Flex Plays
Brian Robinson Jr. & Austin Ekeler - RB, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Brian Robinson may only have 93 rushing yards in two postseason contests, but the Commanders back also has a pair of rushing touchdowns. We just saw this Commanders' offense drop 45 points on the Detroit Lions, which should have fantasy managers salivating at Robinson's 75% carry share inside the five-yard line.
If the Commanders can get it close to the goal line, they like having Robinson punch it in, much like he did the last time he visited Philadelphia.
Commanders are up by 🔟 Brian Robinson Jr. finds the end zone again!
🎥: @NFLpic.twitter.com/PU8uM0icdg
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) January 19, 2025
If you have already used Robinson in a one-and-done postseason contest, then Austin Ekeler offers fantasy managers some flex appeal here. Ekeler only has 74 yards on the ground this postseason, but 47.3% of them have come off explosive runs.
In the Divisional Round, Ekeler provided managers with 8.1 fantasy points in the passing game alone, hauling in all four of his targets for 41 yards after catching three passes for 26 yards in the Wild Card Round. The last time Ekeler suited up against the Eagles, he caught eight of nine targets for 89 yards.
A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith - WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Considering the wintery conditions at the Linc this past weekend, I will give A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith a pass for last week. The combination of Brown and Smith is often considered one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL today.
In two postseason contests, they have fallen short of lofty expectations. The duo has combined for 11 receptions on 18 targets for 100 yards. Brown has almost read as many books on the sideline as he has receptions, as he has accounted for three of the duo's 11 catches thus far.
Eventually, the cream always rises, and we have to remember that during the regular season, Brown accounted for a 31.1% target share, second only to Malik Nabers, while his 1,190 air yards accounted for 50% of the Eagles' air yard share, the most in the NFL. This season against the Commanders, Brown is averaging 17.6 fantasy points.
Against the Commanders this season, Smith averaged 40 yards receiving per game and five receptions per contest. Washington, on the season, allowed 31.87 fantasy points per game (11th-fewest). Last week, St. Brown caught eight passes for 137 yards, so there are fantasy points to be had for a receiver working out of the slot.
Zach Ertz - TE, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
After catching just a pair of passes for 23 yards against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, Ertz would finish with 13.8 fantasy points against the Lions after scoring a touchdown and 28 receiving yards on five receptions.
In the two regular-season meetings, Ertz was targeted nine times, hauling six of those targets for 59 yards and a touchdown, with much of that production coming in the first meeting. Those numbers and the Eagles' 9.14 fantasy points allowed, the second-fewest in the league, may seem like a reason to fade Ertz this week.
However, the duo of Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson just combined for over 27 fantasy points when the pair caught nine passes for 63 yards and two scores.
NFC Championship Sits - Fantasy Football Sit' Em
Dyami Brown- WR, Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
I'm not sure anyone loved Dyami Brown more than I did when he came out of North Carolina. Back in his Chapel Hill days, Brown showed his explosive playmaking ability. Brown had another standout performance last week, hauling in six passes for 98 yards receiving, including a 42-yard pass and catch.
Brown currently leads Washington in postseason receiving yards with 187 yards on 11 receptions, but in two previous contests against the Eagles, Brown had five receptions for 60 yards.
It comes down to Mitchell and Isiah Rodgers' health. Philadelphia has allowed 97 receiving yards to Puka Nacua, 74 yards to Demarcus Robinson, and 61 yards to Cooper Kupp after holding Jayden Reed to 46 yards in the Wild Card Round.
Dallas Goedert - WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
Dallas Goedert has arguably been the favorite target of Hurts through two playoff contests, recording eight receptions on 10 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. Goedert only played in 10 regular season contests, but he did face the Commanders once. Goedert averaged 12.2 yards per reception in that contest on his five catches, producing 11.1 fantasy points.
I caution those who are considering going with Goedert this week. For one, we still haven't seen Brown or Smith as focal points of this offense. Eventually, these Eagles receivers are bound to find their "Inner Excellence." Second, this season, Washington's 10.92 fantasy points against the position is the 10th-lowest total in the NFL.
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