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MLB DFS play for FanDuel, DraftKings (6/17/24). Use Doug's Daily Fantasy Baseball GPP Tournament Picks to win big on FanDuel and DraftKings tonight.
Happy Monday! Tonight’s slate is a nine-gamer that looks to be a lot of fun. There’s a Coors game that not only features the Dodgers but also has the two lowest-ranked pitchers from the pitching model taking the hill for Colorado and Los Angeles. The biggest question you will face is to eat the Coors chalk or fade it completely.
If you want to fade Coors, there are a handful of strong spots to focus on. Those spots start with the Phillies facing Randy Vasquez. The Phillies grade out excellently against right-handed pitching, and Vasquez has been bad against everyone. Another team to look at, if you believe in batter vs. pitcher stats, is the Blue Jays taking on Nick Pivetta. Multiple players on the Toronto roster have had immense success against the Boston righty over their careers.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/17/2024 and the slate locking at 6:40 p.m. EDT on DraftKings and FanDuel. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Skenes (PIT/RHP) vs. Cincinnati Reds ($9.5K DK, $10.3K FD)
Three pitchers stand out on today’s slate: Sonny Gray, Max Fried, and Paul Skenes. The decision to put Skenes at the top of the list has to do with his incredible strikeout upside. He has seven or more strikeouts in all but one of his career starts. His 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings is beyond elite, as is his 1.62 walks per nine innings. The guy just doesn’t make mistakes, and that helps to prevent big innings against him. He has scored 20 or more DraftKings points in three of his five career starts.
Today’s matchup is outstanding as the Reds have a strikeout rate of nearly 26% against right-handed pitchers and don’t support that with any significant power. This game takes place at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, a pitcher-friendly venue that only further cements Skenes as the top pitching option on the slate.
I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen anything like this.
We have our guy, Pittsburgh. #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/Hjljv4Juno
— SkenesMuse (@PaulSkenesMuse) June 12, 2024
Max Fried (ATL/LHP) vs. Detroit Tigers ($9.8K DK, $10.5K FD)
The decision to highlight Max Fried over Sonny Gray, who scored higher on the pitching model, is because of home/road splits and price points. Fried is cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and at their expensive price points, every dollar saved helps with your bats.
Fried is playing at home, where he plays about as well as he does on the road, whereas Gray is on the road, where he plays significantly worse than at home. Fried has been relatively consistent this year, scoring 17 or more DraftKings points in seven of his last nine starts, with six of those starts going for more than 20 DraftKings points. He’s only allowed one home run at home this year, and that came back in the first week of the season. He’s been lights out since then.
The Tigers are a great matchup. Their projected starting lineup only has a .105 ISO against left-handed pitchers this year, so getting lit up via the long ball isn’t much of a concern for Fried. The Tigers also have a .300 wOBA against lefties, so dinking and dunking Fried to death won’t be something they do, either. The only positive for Detroit is that it has just a 21% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, but that’s more than enough for Fried to get a six-inning, five-strikeout, one-earned run type of game (with upside for more); that is more than enough for him to hit value.
Also Consider: Sonny Gray, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Carson Spiers
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Freddie Freeman - 1B, LAD at Cal Quantrill ($6.3K DK, $4.1K FD)
Lots of Dodgers are going to look appealing in this matchup, but Freddie Freeman is the one who has the best history against Cal Quantrill. He’s has 12 at-bats against him and has posted a .500 batting average with three doubles. On the season, Freeman has a .231 ISO and .566 slugging percentage against righties, so the power is there. His .331 batting average against righties leads the team and this game is at Coors; everything is better at Coors.
Freeman is in the midst of a six-game hitting streak and has his average up to .300 after a slow start to the year. The Dodgers will be a popular, if expensive, stack tonight, and Freeman should be a fixture in any L.A. lineup. He’s also a strong cash-game option if you can find the value elsewhere to get up to him.
Freddie Freeman has a 1.187 OPS this month. He came into today with the eighth-best OPS in the Majors in June.
— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) June 16, 2024
Masyn Winn - SS, STL at Braxton Garrett ($3.7K DK, $2.8K FD)
Masyn Winn isn’t the first name you’d think of when choosing a Cardinals bat, but he hits at the top of the order and is excellent against left-handed pitching. On the season, he has a .208 ISO, a .468 slugging percentage, and 12 RBI (leads team) in 83 plate appearances against lefties. He leads the team in slugging percentage and RBI against left-handed pitchers. You could win a bar bet with that statistic! Winn is exactly the type of cheap bat you’re going to want to throw into your lineup to be able to afford Dodgers bats or some of the more expensive arms on the slate. He’s particularly intriguing on FanDuel at just $2,800.
Jeimer Candelario - 3B, CIN at Paul Skenes ($4.3K DK, $3.6K FD)
I’m not suggesting that we go wild against Paul Skenes, my top pitcher on the slate, but he does have a weakness, which is facing left-handed power bats. If you wanted to get a little wild in tournaments in an attempt to take down a chalky pitcher, then the Reds are not the worst place to look. Skenes has allowed a .707 slugging percentage against lefties this year, which is the worst number on the slate by a wide margin.
Candelario has hit righties well this year, with a team-leading .298 ISO, a .553 slugging percentage, and 11 home runs in 171 plate appearances. Candelario is on fire at the moment, with a .350 average, five home runs, and 12 runs batted in over his last 10 games, so if there was ever a time to catch lightning in a bottle, it’s today. Candyman isn’t a cash-game option, but he’s a great one-off in tournaments or you can use him as part of a mini-stack with Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Daulton Varsho, OF - TOR vs. Nick Pivetta ($4.4K DK, $3K FD)
Daulton Varsho continues to lead the Blue Jays with a .256 ISO against right-handed pitchers and he’s second on the team with a .459 slugging percentage. Pivetta got hit hard in his last start. That was the second time in four starts he allowed four or more earned runs. Varsho is far from a sure thing, he’s more of a tournament option, but he’s had great success against Pivetta in his career, getting four hits in eight at-bats with two home runs. Pivetta is a reverse-splits pitcher, so if you’re using Varsho as part of a stack, I’d look to stack him with a handful of righties; a combination of Davis Schneider, Danny Jansen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer.
David Dahl, OF - PHI vs. Randy Vasquez ($3K DK, $2.4K FD)
David Dahl is not the best option on the Phillies tonight, but I wanted to highlight him because he’s a cheap bat that should not be overlooked. He has only played in eight games this year, but in his limited work, he has been great against right-handed pitching. In 20 plate appearances, he has two home runs with a .650 slugging percentage and a .400 ISO. He’s a cheap cash- game option, but he could also be used to help lower the effective cost of an expensive Phillies stack. We want to take as many shots as we can against Vasquez and his .547 slugging percentage allowed to left-handed bats this year.
Adolis Garcia, OF - TEX vs. David Peterson ($5.2K DK, $3.4K FD)
Only two pitchers on the slate have allowed a higher slugging percentage to right-handed bats than David Peterson, and we are already picking on them. Peterson has given up a .449 slugging percentage, while only striking out 5.6% of the righties he’s faced this year. That strikeout percentage is awful and will lead to massive innings against him. Garcia has a .211 ISO, a .451 slugging percentage, and a team-leading four home runs and 15 runs batted in against lefties this year. He may be a bit hard to get up to in cash games on DraftKings (although his $3,400 price point is reasonable on FanDuel), but he’s a staple in all Rangers stacks tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Randy Vasquez (SD/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, David Dahl, Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm
2. Los Angeles Dodgers at Cal Quantrill (COL/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith
3. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta (BOS/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Danny Jansen, Daulton Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Davis Schneider
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