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How does the late-round QB fantasy football draft strategy work? Andrew analyzes whether waiting until late in 2024 drafts to select a QB is a viable strategy.
The gap between QB1 and QB6 or QB7 has widened, but is it enough to give fantasy managers a significant positional advantage? Let’s break down the numbers from a year ago.
| Per-Game Fantasy Finish (PPR) |
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers |
| 1 | Josh Allen (24.2) | Christian McCaffrey (24.5) | CeeDee Lamb (23.7) |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts (21.9) | Kyren Williams (21.3) | Tyreek Hill (23.5) |
| 3 | Joe Flacco (21.8) | Alvin Kamara (17.9) | Keenan Allen (21.5) |
| 4 | Lamar Jackson (21.1) | Raheem Mostert (17.8) | Amon-Ra St. Brown (20.7) |
| 5 | Dak Prescott (20.7) | De'Von Achane (17.3) | Justin Jefferson (20.2) |
| 6 | Jordan Love (19.4) | Breece Hall (17.1) | Puka Nacua (17.6) |
| 7 | Kirk Cousins (19.3) | Travis Etienne (16.6) | Nico Collins (17.4) |
| 8 | Brock Purdy (19.2) | Jahmyr Gibbs (16.1) | A.J. Brown (17) |
| 9 | Kyler Murray (18.9) | Saquon Barkley (15.9) | DJ Moore (16.9) |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud (18.7) | Rachaad White (15.8) | Mike Evans (16.6) |
Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes (order dependent on your draft) were the top quarterbacks off the board in the late second or early third round. Allen and Hurts positively returned on investment. Mahomes didn’t land in the top 10 in points per game. Prescott was a middle-round quarterback who finished third overall. Love and Purdy weren’t drafted in many redraft leagues. Still, being five points per game worse than Allen is significant when extrapolated over a 17-game schedule.
As you can see above, 2023 had two league-winning QBs (Allen and Hurts) go early.
Previous years had more late-round gems.
The value over replacement you've received from top-3 QBs (by end-of-year result) has also fluctuated.
QB was more important in 2022-23 than 2020-21. pic.twitter.com/CJgLK1TxL0
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) August 5, 2024
Except for Collins and Nacua, all of the receivers listed in the top 10 were selected in the top half of drafts. Lamb, Hill, St. Brown, Jefferson, and Brown were drafted in the first two rounds. Finding that elite receiver in the first few rounds is vital to fantasy success.
A group of wide receivers had a similar ADP to the top three quarterbacks last offseason: DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave. Smith and Waddle averaged 14.2 PPR points per game. Olave was a notch higher at 14.5.
Is Late-Round QB Strategy Still Viable?
Great or late, no set strategy guarantees fantasy football success. Let the draft flow and player pool decide when you select your starting quarterback. Are quarterbacks flying off the board in the early rounds? Load up on talented runners and receivers and find your quarterback late. Are all fantasy managers hesitant to take the first quarterback and you’re on the clock in the fourth round with Allen on the board? Time to take the snag the value pick.
The late-round quarterback strategy is still viable, despite 2023 being an outlier year for the best signal-callers. Although, the best bet is to target mobile quarterbacks late. There’s a common theme in the table above that lists the top two quarterbacks per season since 2018.
Mahomes, Ryan, Prescott, and Herbert aren’t viewed as run-heavy quarterbacks. However, Prescott averaged 300 yards and six touchdowns early in his career before his devastating ankle injury. Mahomes has averaged 330 rushing yards since becoming the starter. Herbert has a few 200-yard campaigns to his name. Ryan is the outlier.
Kyler Murray and rookie Jayden Daniels fit the late-round, mobile quarterback bill. Murray was the QB9 in fantasy points per game once he returned from his ACL injury from the year prior. His 30.5 rushing yards per game were the second-lowest mark of his career. That number should only rise with more time removed from the knee injury. With the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the emergence of Trey McBride, the Arizona offense may take one of the biggest leaps in football from last season.
Jayden Daniels keeps it for the TD on his opening drive 🔥 @JayD__5
📱: Stream #WASvsNYJ on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/HbRsYFo9m6
— NFL (@NFL) August 10, 2024
Daniels ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns in his senior season at LSU en route to the Heisman Trophy. He also passed for 3,812 yards and 40 more scores. The Commanders have enough talent at skill positions (Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Austin Ekeler) to help Daniels ease into the professional ranks. Detroit’s Jared Goff, who plays indoors until Week 9, should get off to a hot start. Draft the veteran late to platoon with the rookie.
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