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Brenton Kemp's top NHL betting picks and best bets for today's NHL games on 3/1/24. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other various hockey bets.
It's hard to believe the calendar has flipped to March as the playoff races head up across the NHL. We don't have a ton of action going down this Friday evening, but we still have three games to comb through.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the NHL games on Friday, March 1. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some hockey games. Follow me on Twitter/X @BKemp17.
Today's NHL Betting Picks - Arizona Coyotes vs. Ottawa Senators
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: OTT (-102)
The Arizona Coyotes nearly mounted a three-goal comeback in an eventual 4-2 defeat to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday but now have the task of going into Ottawa and trying to snap a 14-game losing streak.
The 'Yotes gave Thursday's starting nod in goal to Connor Ingram, meaning they are likely to turn to Karel Vejmelka, who has been the far inferior netminder this season. The Czechia native sports an ugly 3.62 goals-against average and a .891 save percentage on the season, going 6-15-2 across 26 outings (22 starts).
The Coyotes sit in a share of 22nd in overall defense, and their expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at five-on-five (5v5) sits 18th league-wide. Scoring goals has been the biggest issue as they sit 26th in overall offense while they sit 24th in expected goals per 60 (xGF/60) at 5v5 action.
While it's been a difficult season overall, scoring goals has not been an issue for the Senators. Their young offense has managed 3.3o goals per game, good for 11th in the league, while their xGF/60 sits 12th. Preventing offense has been the foremost issue as their 3.56 goals against per game rank 30th while they sit 26th in xGA/60 at 5v5.
Brady Tkachuk ‼️
Back and forth they go 👀 pic.twitter.com/UHvDHOZlwk
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 27, 2024
The Coyotes have yielded at least four goals in each of their last seven contests, a big problem for a team with offensive issues. Preventing offense doesn't get any easier tonight in Ottawa.
Look for the Sens to pounce on a vulnerable club tonight, as they should be able to take care of business with ease.
Pick: Senators puck line -1.5 (+124, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's NHL Betting Picks - New Jersey Devils vs. Anaheim Ducks
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NJ (-250)
Another team skating in their second game in as many nights is the Anaheim Ducks, who won a 6-4 decision over the lowly San Jose Sharks on the road Thursday evening.
Offensive explosions such as Thursday have been few and far between for the Ducks, who sit 29th in overall offense and 27th in expected offense at 5v5 on the season. They also allowed four goals to a last-ranked Sharks offense, as they now sit 29th in overall defense as well.
The Devils have been one of the league's largest disappointments this season. A sexy Stanley Cup pre-season pick, they are only fourth in the Metropolitan Division and have struggled to get consistent goaltending all season long. As a result, they should be acquiring goaltending help any time now before the March 8 NHL trade deadline.
At any rate, the weak goaltending has landed them 26th in overall defense on the season, but the fact they are 17th in xGA/60 at 5v5 means the team has deserved a better fate. A 30th-ranked .904 save percentage at 5v5 has sunk them.
It's unfortunate, considering how good the offense has been. The Devils rank seventh in overall offense and 14th on the power play. They have deserved that offense as they also sit third in xGF/60 at 5v5.
An interesting note in this one is the home/road splits of both clubs. The Devils are 16-10-2 on the road versus just 14-15-2 at home. On the flip side, the Ducks are an atrocious 8-20-1 on home ice versus a decent 13-15-2 on the road. Their eight home wins are the fewest in the NHL, and only them and the Sharks are in single-digit home wins.
The Devils, desperate for wins, should be able to take care of a young Ducks team playing the tail end of a back-to-back where they have been extremely poor this season.
Pick: Devils puck line -1.5 (-102, DraftKings sportsbook)
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