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Happy Tuesday everybody! Yes, I know it's only the middle of the week, but did you know that Tuesday is the only weekday that you can count on a full slate of baseball games? Hey, that sounds like the perfect day to me.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 16th, 2022, for the 15-game 6:40 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. There are plenty of very tight matchups with playoff implications, shaping this up to be a special day. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Dodgers @ Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAD -125
LAD: Ryan Pepiot | MIL: Brandon Woodruff
Well, these two teams are currently heading in directions. While the Dodgers have won 13 of their last 14 games, the Brewers have lost 10 of their last 14, squandering not only the NL Central lead but a postseason spot as well. So, things will go as expected here, right? Nope, because, if we've learned anything, it's that baseball is anything but normal.
After all, the Brewers have to feel quite well about their chances of winning anytime Brandon Woodruff is on the mound. It's hard to get the spotlight you deserve when you're in the same rotation as Corbin Burnes, but few pitchers can match the consistency and high-end production he brings to the table every fifth day. After a rough few starts to open up the season, the 29-year-old sports a very strong 3.02 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), 31.1% strikeout rate, and 24.3% K-BB, all of which would solidify him as one of the game's elite pitchers; he's allowed three earned runs or more in just one of his past 11 starts! The Dodgers may be an absolute juggernaut offensively, then again, Woodruff is pretty good in his own right.
Meanwhile, despite a lot of the concerns about their recent slip in terms of team record, the Brewers came into today with the sixth-best weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) over the past 30 days, and a majority of their losses have gone down to poor late-game luck; six of their past eight losses have come by two runs or less.
With Clayton Kershaw on the injured list and Dustin May not yet ready to come back, the Dodgers will be forced to turn to youngster Ryan Pepiot, who has struggled (5.15 SIERA) in his first five career MLB starts, particularly in the walk (16.5% BB) department. The Brewers happen to be a top-five offense in terms of drawing walks this year, as well as hitting for power, which is notable against a pitcher who has not shown the ability to induce ground balls (23.5%) so far. Meanwhile, you'd also not expect Pepiot, who has reached five innings just once, to provide the Dodgers with much length, which is the opposite case for the Brewers and Woodruff.
Yes, the Dodgers certainly appear to be the best team in baseball, and I'm not sure how close it is. In this particular game though, the pitching advantage is too significant to overlook, especially considering the Brewers are still a very quality team with a well-performing offense. There aren't many days that you can expect Los Angeles to come up short, but this is one of them.
Pick: Milwaukee Moneyline (+105), Caesars Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI -179
PHI: Kyle Gibson | CIN: TJ Zeuch
It's hard to remember now, but the Phillies were 22-29 when they decided to cut ties with manager Joe Girardi, and that was before Bryce Harper suffered a thumb injury on a hit by pitch at the end of June. Of course, none of that matters right now; in fact, Philadelphia finds themselves 13 games above .500 and 2.5 games up in the NL wildcard race, and have been playing exceptional baseball as of late. In a very favorable spot, we should expect that to continue.
One reason for the Phillies' recent surge? Strong offensive production. Philadelphia ranks in the top ten in wRC+ and isolated power (ISO) over the past 30 days, which shouldn't be a surprise given the amount of talent they have. Really, it's hard to overstate how promising it has been to see some of their key players perform at such a high level:
PHILLIES KEY BATS PAST 30 DAYS
- J.T. Realmuto: 176 wRC+
- Darick Hall: 142 wRC+
- Rhys Hoskins: 138 wRC+
- Alec Bohm: 128 wRC+
- Bryson Stott: 121 wRC+
The best part? All of these have come from sustainable adjustments; Bohm is hitting more balls in the air, Stott is hitting for more authority, while Realmuto's process stats back up his recent surge. Of course, when Darick Hall can be called up from the minors and hit for the type of power he has, that also helps. Now, add in the return of Jean Segura, another likely surge from Kyle Schwarber, and some improvements from Nick Castellanos (108 wRC+ past 30 days), and you start to get a very strong lineup.
It doesn't stop on that side of the ball though; Philadelphia's defense, with new center field Brandon Marsh and infield re-alignment, has also dramatically improved as of late. Add it all together, and this is a playoff-caliber team.
The Reds, on the other hand, are the opposite of that. For the season, they have the fourth-lowest wRC+ in baseball, and now feature only two hitters (Jonathan India and Joey Votto) with a projected wRC+ from THE BAT X above 100. Considering both of those players have underperformed this season, that is not ideal. Meanwhile, following the trades of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, they're also forced to patch together their rotation, which includes starting T.J. Zeuch, owner of a projected 6.85 ERA from ZiPs, today.
Runs are likely to not be at a premium in the most-friendly hitters' ballpark in all of baseball outside of Coors Field, per Baseball Savant, which increases the blowout potential here. To be frank, this game certainly profiles as a one-sided matchup regardless of the venue. Man, things are going quite well for the Fightin' Phils right now.
Pick: Philadelphia Run Line (-108), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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