RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 17 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. We'd like to start by wishing everyone a happy New Year! Week 2 of the fantasy playoffs came out with a bang on Thursday and kept on firing right through until Christmas. The highlight has to be Amari Cooper, but he wasn't alone. Scoring was up significantly last week with 10 out of the 32 teams reaching the 30-point mark. It's championship week in most leagues, making it a thrilling time of year. The NFL schedule is down to just one Saturday game and no Monday games, meaning 14 of the 16 matchups land on Sunday.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you crushed your opponent and moved one step closer to a title. Regardless of what you're playing for or what has you interested, we're glad you're still along for the ride with us. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday Game
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -5.5
Implied Total: Lions (23.25) vs. Cowboys (28.75)
Pace: Lions (18th) vs. Cowboys (22nd)
Lions Off. DVOA: 24.5% Pass (9th), 10.2% Rush (4th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 24.2% Pass (10th), -4.2% Rush (14th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 7.9% Pass (16th), -17.3% Rush (4th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -2.2% Pass (8th), -12.5% Rush (12th)
Matchups We Love:
Lions RBs
Vegas is expecting a shootout between two high-powered offenses that are competing to finish at the top of the NFC. The Lions will be led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who continue to dominate defenses. Gibbs was elusive, making defenders miss constantly. He went over 100 scrimmage yards and ran in two touchdowns. Montgomery, who spent some time on the sideline, was no slouch either, finding the end zone and totaling 69 yards. Dallas slowed down the Dolphins after getting gashed by the Bills, but these two will wear them down. Gibbs has the receiving role on lockdown, so he's a top-12 back against Dallas with Montgomery in the top 24.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
It was business as usual for St. Brown, who had more than double the targets of every other receiver. Jameson Williams continues to slot in behind St. Brown, but with the backfield and tight end taking away targets, he's a flex option.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott hung tight with the Dolphins, but couldn't get the late win. He got charged with a lost fumble, but it was a strange play where the quarterback never had the ball. Nevertheless, the Lions are the perfect matchup for him to light it up at home, where he's far more comfortable. He's back in the top 10.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb looked like he was about to shatter records after the first quarter before getting completely shut down until partway through the fourth. Brandin Cooks hauled in a touchdown while Jalen Tolbert made a big play down the sideline. Lamb is a must-start with Cooks worth throwing out there as a flex option given the matchup and point total.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
The final output of four catches for 45 yards wasn't fantastic, but eight targets were second on the team. You can fire him up this week as the No. 2 receiver behind Lamb.
Matchups We Hate:
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Miami has tightened up their defense as a whole with Jalen Ramsey healthy, but they're especially tough to run on. That remains the one area Detroit's defense is holding strong as well, which is problematic for Pollard. He somehow didn't score last week because the ball was outside the end zone despite his whole body being across it. Additionally, he earned just one target, which is concerning considering there should be a lot of passing attempts. He's not a bench because they could easily run one in and Rico Dowdle is out, but he'll need to be a factor as a receiver to deliver.
Other Matchups:
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta took a backseat to the backfield and St. Brown, resulting in just three targets. It's a tough matchup this week, but he's still in the top 10.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff threw for 250-plus yards as he typically does, but the touchdowns, five of which came through the air two weeks ago, were mostly on the ground this time. Traveling to Dallas isn't a great spot, so he drops into the streaming category.
Injuries:
Rico Dowdle (ankle)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -3.5
Implied Total: Dolphins (21.75) vs. Ravens (25.25)
Pace: Dolphins (30th) vs. Ravens (26th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 43.2% Pass (3rd), 14.6% Rush (3rd)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 26.2% Pass (7th), 22.6% Rush (1st)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 2.1% Pass (12th), -6.7% Rush (21st)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -27.2% Pass (1st), -13.2% Rush (10th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
In a contest featuring three possible MVP candidates, Jackson stood out above the other two, especially the opposing signal-caller, which is the position that usually wins the award. He methodically drove the ball down the field the same as the week prior, constantly getting them into the red zone. The one knock would be that they had to settle for field goals four times, including three of them at the 11-yard line or closer. It means that Jackson's day, which was already quite good, could have been even better.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Hill entered the game questionable with an ankle injury that limited him in the first half. He gutted it out and finished with a productive outing, but he still doesn't appear healthy. Unfortunately, his ankle ailment isn't the worst one as Jaylen Waddle suffered a high ankle sprain that will likely sideline him for multiple weeks. There really isn't a clear next man up here. It'll be some combination of tight end Durham Smythe, Cedrick Wilson Jr., and Robbie Chosen. Ultimately, it's Hill, and then no one for fantasy.
UPDATE: Waddle has been ruled out as expected.
Matchups We Hate:
Dolphins RBs
As of Saturday night, Raheem Mostert is not expected to play in Week 17:
De'Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr. will be the lead running backs for the Dolphins. Given the tough matchup and his relative lack of production lately, Achane's fantasy rank is lower than usual. Be sure to check in with our updated Week 17 fantasy football running back rankings to see where they rank.
Other Matchups:
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Flowers stole the show among the receiving options with a 37% target share, leading to nine grabs for 72 yards and a score. Jalen Ramsey on deck is not ideal, but he's used all over the formation, so it's unlikely he'll receive shadow coverage throughout the game. With another offense that they know can score, you'd expect the Ravens to stay aggressive and keep pushing for more points, landing Flowers, who has yet to practice, in the top 36 with Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor, and Rashod Bateman all hard-to-decipher flex options.
UPDATE: Flowers is listed as questionable. If he were to miss then, Beckham Jr. would become the preferred option with Agholor and Bateman still in the flex range.
Ravens RBs
Gus Edwards did what he does best. He plowed forward for a short touchdown. Meanwhile, Justice Hill had one more carry and caught three passes. Edwards did leak out in the flat for what amounted to a 39-yard reception, but that role is generally reserved for Hill. Miami's run defense is stout, so the ceiling for these two is somewhat capped. However, two to four receptions for Hill and another trip to pay dirt for Edwards is always a possibility. They're also likely to be leading and winning, so they're both possible flex options.
Isaiah Likely (TE, BAL)
Likely made the most of his opportunities, catching three of his four targets for 56 yards. It's another tough matchup, but he remains a top-12 tight end.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
As we alluded to above, only one touchdown isn't going to cut it for fantasy. Tagovailoa threw for almost 300 yards with no turnovers, so from an NFL perspective, he got the job done. Playing in Baltimore is a hard place to succeed, never mind when you're without one of your top receivers. Tagovailoa lands around the back of the top 12.
Injuries:
Salvon Ahmed (foot)
Jaylen Waddle (ankle) - OUT
Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) - OUT
Zay Flowers (calf)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -14.0
Implied Total: Patriots (13) vs. Bills (27)
Pace: Patriots (11th) vs. Bills (29th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -6.8% Pass (28th), -11.8% Rush (23rd)
Bills Off. DVOA: 43.5% Pass (2nd), 4.4% Rush (6th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 8.6% Pass (17th), -19.9% Rush (2nd)
Bills Def. DVOA: 1.1% Pass (11th), -8.1% Rush (20th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to be colder with mild wind and possible rain or snow, which could have an impact depending on the severity.
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
It wasn't as easy a win as we all anticipated, but Allen led the Bills to another victory. While he threw the ball a little bit more than he did against Dallas, his rushing did the majority of the damage with two scores on the ground. Prepare yourself for another joyous day when the Patriots come to town.
Matchups We Hate:
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox outproduced him with the same number of targets, two. You can't trust him at this point.
Other Matchups:
James Cook (RB, BUF)
After destroying the Cowboys two weeks ago, Cook had 20 carries again. Unfortunately, not only did they amount to 70 scoreless yards, but he failed to earn a target. Allen only completed 15 passes, plus the offense as a whole failed to sustain drives. The Patriots have been stout against tailbacks, but the game script will be favorable. The combination of uncertainty around his receiving involvement, the matchup, and the addition of Leonard Fournette, who handled five carries, make Cook more of a top-15 back.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Earning the most targets and finishing with the most receptions will not appease fantasy managers considering what Gabe Davis did. You never know when Davis will pop up, but when he does, it's bad news for the other receivers because the drive usually starts and ends with him scoring a long touchdown. Davis turned four grabs into 130 yards with a 57-yard house call. Davis failing to catch a pass is the most probable option, so you can't put him in your lineup. Similarly, Diggs has finished outside the top 50 in five of his past six games, so he has to be downgraded. He's more of a top-36 wideout at this point.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, NE)
Elliott's value is almost entirely contingent on two things. Finding the end zone and catching over five passes. Fortunately, both of those came to fruition last week when he turned his 11 targets into nine receptions for 33 yards and a score. It's not going to be pretty against Buffalo, but he's a solid top-24 RB, especially in full-PPR formats.
Patriots WRs
Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker were far and away the top two options with Hunter Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster out. They combined for nine receptions and 139 yards on 13 targets. Douglas tends to avoid the top CB from the opposing team and earns more volume, so he's the preferred choice but both are flex options.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Henry is back practicing after missing last week. He was on a roll with Bailey Zappe before the injury, but the matchup is more difficult. He moves into the streamer tier with touchdown upside if active.
UPDATE: Henry practiced all week and is listed as questionable, giving him a shot to return.
Injuries:
Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)
Hunter Henry (knee)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle)
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears -2.5
Implied Total: Falcons (17.75) vs. Bears (20.25)
Pace: Falcons (9th) vs. Bears (28th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 5.2% Pass (23rd), -9.6% Rush (21st)
Bears Off. DVOA: -1.4% Pass (24th), -1.9% Rush (10th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 17.7% Pass (28th), -17.0% Rush (5th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 10.2% Pass (18th), -17.6% Rush (3rd)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have moderate wind with sustained gusts and snow, which could have an impact on the passing attack.
Matchups We Love:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields ran all over the Cardinals with nine carries for 97 yards and a score. He wasn't as lethal through the air both because they were up by a lot and because his primary pass catchers, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, missed part of the game due to injury. It'll be harder to rack up the same rushing production against Atlanta, but it's a good spot through the air.
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
As mentioned above, Moore took a hit on his first reception of the game that kept him off the field until the fourth quarter. It was a tough break for anyone who started him, but he's off the injury report this week, so he's right back into the top 20, despite having to deal with A.J. Terrell and Co.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
The Colts were a spectacular matchup for Robinson and Allgeier, who both had a nice game. Robinson turned his 19 touches into 122 yards, including a team-leading seven receptions, while Allgeier had a 31-yard rushing touchdown. Chicago's defense has improved against the pass, but they're still vulnerable against the run. Robinson should be in line for another great day.
Matchups We Hate:
Falcons Passing Attack
The switch to Taylor Heinicke helped the offense sustain drives and score points. The 29 they hung on the Colts was the most all year, which speaks to the reason they made the move. He even helped Kyle Pitts find the end zone. As we discussed above, it's going to be a lot harder traveling to Soldier Field, so everyone becomes a fade. Pitts is still a streamer and Drake London is a flex option, but their ceilings come down.
Bears RBs
We knew that removing D'Onta Foreman would be good news for Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. What we weren't sure about was which one would be the starter. It turned out to be Herbert, which was important because the game script and matchup allowed him to rush for 112 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts. Unfortunately, Foreman is back at practice and the matchup is terrible, so it's back to fading all three with a lack of clarity in terms of roles.
Other Matchups:
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet made some big plays, totaling 107 yards. Unfortunately, he left the game with a knee injury and has yet to practice. We'll see what Friday brings regarding his availability.
UPDATE: Kmet returned to practice and is listed as questionable, giving him a shot to suit up.
Injuries:
Cole Kmet (knee)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -4.0
Implied Total: Titans (20) vs. Texans (24)
Pace: Titans (27th) vs. Texans (3rd)
Titans Off. DVOA: 5.4% Pass (22nd), -4.6% Rush (15th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 23.6% Pass (11th), -18.8% Rush (30th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 15.9% Pass (25th), -14.7% Rush (8th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 16.9% Pass (27th), -16.4% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
After missing multiple contests with a concussion, Stroud is back for a very critical Week 17 game against the Titans. The matchup is good and he's got most of his weapons, so he's in the top 12.
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Houston was outmatched for three quarters until the Browns played soft coverage, allowing Davis Mills to lead a couple of scoring drives that salvaged their day. Collins hauled in one of those late touchdowns, but was otherwise not a factor. With Stroud returning, he's back in the top 24 with a high ceiling. Noah Brown also becomes a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry delivered another vintage performance in a favorable matchup and competitive game script. He threw and ran for a touchdown, something he's been known to do. He's been effective this time of year given his style of play, but the Texans are playing to stay alive and their defense has been stout. The last time they met two weeks ago, he had one of the worst days of his career, so it's tough to feel confident, but he's a boom-bust top-24 back that will rely on game script and volume, while Tyjae Spears, who had nine rushing attempts and five receptions, is a flex option.
Other Matchups:
Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)
Schultz was soaking volume all day against the Browns with 11 targets. When healthy, he's been a top-12 tight end most weeks, so that's the projection here.
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU)
In a bad matchup with a backup quarterback, things just weren't going to work out for Singletary. He still operated as the lead back and was involved in the receiving game, which are great signs for this week when they host Tennessee, whose defense is banged up. They're still a below-average matchup, but he jumps into the top 24 with more scoring upside now that Stroud is back.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN)
It hasn't mattered who is tossing him the pigskin, Okonkwo has been a potential streamer in four of the past five weeks, finishing as the TE2 last week when he found the end zone. He's had six targets in three of the past four weeks, which is decent at tight end. He's worth a look this week.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN)
The same can't be said for Hopkins, who had just four targets after hitting nine or more in the previous three contests. Will Levis practiced in full and seems set to return this week, which would push Hopkins into the top 36.
Injuries:
None
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -3.5
Implied Total: Raiders (19.5) vs. Colts (23)
Pace: Raiders (23rd) vs. Colts (4th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -7.6% Pass (29th), -14.4% Rush (24th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 7.8% Pass (19th), 4.5% Rush (8th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: -4.3% Pass (6th), -8.1% Rush (19th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 4.7% Pass (14th), -2.6% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Zamir White (RB, LV)
The Raiders realized after one quarter that their only shot to win was to play stout defense and run the ball. As a result, they rode White 22 times for 145 yards, including a 43-yarder to essentially ice the game. With Josh Jacobs yet to practice, he's in line to handle the majority of the work against a terrible run defense in a game they could legitimately win. He's a top-20 back if Jacobs misses.
UPDATE: Jacobs is listed as doubtful, which essentially means he's out.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
These are two of the teams still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot in the AFC, so you'd expect a spirited contest. Taylor got off to a solid start last week, finding pay dirt on their first drive. However, the excitement waned as the game went on because the defense caused havoc for Gardner Minshew. The bigger concern was that with Zack Moss out, Taylor only had one target despite the team trailing for the final three quarters. Even Tyler Goodson had two. It was his debut off the thumb injury and it was a blowout, so hopefully that's part of why he only played 59% of the snaps and had one target. Additionally, Zack Moss has been practicing this week in a limited fashion and could return to the lineup.
UPDATE: Moss has been ruled out, increasing the touches and outlook for Taylor.
Matchups We Hate:
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND)
As outlined above, Minshew threw a pick and took six sacks while completing 54% of his passes. Playing without Michael Pittman Jr. is too much for him to overcome against a quality defense, which is a fair way to describe the Raiders. Pittman practiced in full on Thursday, which is a positive sign, but the same thing happened last week before he was ruled out. He needs Pittman to be worth considering, but even still, it's risky against Las Vegas.
Other Matchups:
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
Aidan O'Connell winning the game without completing a pass in the final three quarters is remarkable, especially considering it was on the road in Arrowhead. Despite the miraculous win, his nine completions cratered the value of everyone else in the passing attack. Indianapolis's defense is nowhere near as talented as the Chiefs, who made sure to put L'Jarius Sneed on Adams, so there's reason for optimism, but it is a little worrisome.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
As we outlined above, Pittman had a weird week of news entering last week's game. He was all but locked in as playing before suddenly being inactive. Friday will be his first chance for an official status.
UPDATE: Pittman practiced in full again on Friday but is still listed as questionable. He's a top-24 wideout with Josh Downs as a flex option if Pittman plays.
Injuries:
Zack Moss (forearm)
Josh Jacobs (quad)
Michael Mayer (toe)
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -4.0
Implied Total: Panthers (16.25) vs. Jaguars (20.25)
Pace: Panthers (12th) vs. Jaguars (10th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -20.8% Pass (30th), -15.8% Rush (26th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 22.3% Pass (13th), -15.4% Rush (25th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 10.6% Pass (19th), 6.9% Rush (32nd)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 4.9% Pass (15th), -16.6% Rush (6th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
It's been a brutal couple of weeks for Jacksonville, who has gotten whooped by the Ravens and Buccaneers. Not only did the offense score a combined 19 points in the past two weeks, but the matchups have been abysmal for Etienne. Thankfully, the Jaguars get their shot to right the ship when Carolina comes to town. It's a fantastic matchup against the last-place Panthers, making it a huge bounce-back opportunity.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
With Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both out, Engram feasted on the Tampa Bay defense with 10 receptions for 95 yards on 15 targets. Typically, you can win on the ground, but Carolina has been forcing teams to air it out more the past two weeks, so Engram, who is a focal point of the offense, is locked in.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
As we alluded to above, the Panthers are no longer a cakewalk for teams. It took a game-winning field goal from Green Bay to squeak out a victory. Hubbard was solid again with 16 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown against an exploitable run defense. The one concern is that Bryce Young threw the ball 36 times for over 300 yards and Hubbard had just one catch for eight yards. The matchup isn't too bad, so he remains in the top 24.
Panthers Passing Attack
Young is playing better and the offense is looking sharper. Young not only had a fantasy-relevant outing, but provided one for Adam Thielen, DJ Chark Jr., and Tommy Tremble. You're not going to start Young, but the Jaguars continue to struggle to slow down opposing passing attacks, so Thielen returns to the top 36 with Chark as a flex option and Tremble as a risky streamer.
Jaguars WRs
Calvin Ridley had negative yards entering the half. It seemed like another classic bust performance despite a good matchup and no other receivers to compete with. Then all of a sudden he went off, hauling in two touchdowns in the second half as he's prone to do. He's so unpredictable. Jones was out, which certainly helped his opportunities. Jones has been practicing in a limited fashion, so we'll need more information Friday. With Trevor Lawrence, Ridley's outlook would take a hit, especially if Jones is back facing against a defense that's easier to run on.
UPDATE: Lawrence has been ruled out while Jones is listed as questionable. Ridley is shaping up to be a boom-bust top-36 wideout.
Injuries:
Trevor Lawrence (ankle/concussion)
Zay Jones (knee/hamstring)
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
Spread: Rams -5.5
Implied Total: Rams (24.5) vs. Giants (19)
Pace: Rams (21st) vs. Giants (17th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 26.8% Pass (6th), 2.7% Rush (7th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -21.7% Pass (31st), -22.3% Rush (31st)
Rams Def. DVOA: 11.4% Pass (21st), -8.6% Rush (17th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 10.6% Pass (20th), 1.8% Rush (27th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford has his team on a roll, inching closer to locking up a playoff spot. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns each of the past five weeks, averaging 278 yards per game during that stretch. He's set up for another top-12 week against the Giants.
Rams WRs
Two weeks ago, it was Cooper Kupp with the big catch and run score. Last week, it was Puka Nacua who stole the show with nine receptions for 164 yards and a touchdown. Kupp did appear to hurt his hand early in the game, but there's no reason to believe both can't coexist. In addition the to dynamic duo, Demarcus Robinson is making his case for this to become a trio. It's reminiscent of the Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods days. With such a concentrated passing attack, all three are startable with Nacua in the top 15, Kupp in the top 20, and Robinson in the top 36.
UPDATE: Nacua is listed as questionable but is expected to play.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
Good defense, bad defense, it doesn't much matter for Williams, who you can pencil for 100-plus yards and a score. This time it was entirely on the ground, but that worked, too. He's a must-start.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants Passing Attack
It appears both New York teams are now facing a quarterback controversy after Tommy Devito was benched on Christmas day for Tyrod Taylor. Taylor played pretty well in the second half, turning it into a close contest while earning himself the start this week. The beneficiary was Darius Slayton, who capitalized on a defender slipping for a 69-yard house call. He's their deep threat, Darren Waller operates over the middle of the field, and Wan'Dale Robinson is closer to the line of scrimmage. Waller is a streamer with Slayton a boom-bust flex option.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
The Giants stayed competitive with Philly because they fed Barkley the ball 23 times on the ground and targeted him six times. He was forced to grind out every yard against a tough defense, but found the end zone and caught three passes. It doesn't get any easier against the Rams, whose defense has been brutal for running backs, but the volume should be there for him to land inside the top 24, especially if he scores.
Injuries:
Puka Nacua (hip)
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -12.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (18) vs. Eagles (30.5)
Pace: Cardinals (1st) vs. Eagles (25th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -5.5% Pass (27th), 0.9% Rush (9th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 24.7% Pass (8th), 6.6% Rush (5th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 27.4% Pass (31st), 6.7% Rush (31st)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 13.3% Pass (23rd), -9.4% Rush (16th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
After a couple of difficult weeks where he failed to succeed as a passer, he put together a nice performance against New York, completing 63% of his passes for 301 yards and a touchdown while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. We know he'll come through for fantasy because of the "Brotherly Shove," but it's helpful for the receiving options when he throws the ball well and often.
Eagles WRs
As you would anticipate, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both had great games. Brown was quiet in the first half, but finished with six grabs for 80 yards while Smith had a stat line of 4/79/1. Smith did slot in behind Dallas Goedert in terms of targets, but the matchup this week is superb, so these two are a full go.
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Swift did it. He scored a touchdown on the ground. It came from five yards out, but that's the sweet spot where it's too far for Hurts, but still close enough to run the ball. Kenneth Gainwell has quietly emerged as a usable asset because he's taking over as their receiving back and splitting carries with Swift. He turned his nine touches into 79 yards. Against the Cardinals, you can start Swift as a top-15 back with Gainwell as a flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Cardinals WRs
We know the routine by now. Marquise Brown is always hurt, Greg Dortch will get a decent amount of volume, and Michael Wilson is boom-bust. The backfield dominated the passing attack with a combined 12 receptions. Dortch, who scored last week, gets a great matchup, so he'd be the best of the bunch this week.
UPDATE: Brown has been placed on Injured Reserve, so he'll miss the final two games, including this week.
Other Matchups:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
After back-to-back weeks of finding the end zone and racking up over 80 yards, it seemed impossible for that to continue against the Bears. Yet, it did. While I hesitate to view this as sustainable against the Eagles, the biggest shift was to target him as a receiver, where he hauled in five passes for 47 yards and a touchdown. Emari Demercado went seven for 40, but the team seems to have figured out that they lack talent at receiver, so utilizing their backfield more is a wise move. It could also be because of the pass rush, which will be a factor again this week. It puts Conner in the top 24 with Demercado as a possible flex option.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
McBride tied for the lead in targets, six of which he caught, but only for 31 yards. The volume is great, so McBride remains a top-10 tight end with so few reliable players to choose from.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray and Co. were getting stomped by the Bears, forcing him to air it out 38 times. In addition to his 230 passing yards and two touchdowns, he ran the ball five times for 32 yards. Philadelphia has yet to prove their defense can slow down their opponent's passing attack, so Murray, who has missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with an illness, jumps into the top 12.
UPDATE: Murray is listed as questionable for Sunday. Behind him is Clayton Tune, which would be bad news for the offense.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
As we mentioned above, Goedert was second in targets with nine, which he turned into seven receptions for 71 yards. He looked healthy and back to his normal role. He's a top-10 tight end despite a more difficult matchup.
Injuries:
Marquise Brown (heel)
Kyler Murray (illness)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Implied Total: Saints (19.75) vs. Buccaneers (22.25)
Pace: Saints (13th) vs. Buccaneers (16th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 5.7% Pass (21st), -3.4% Rush (13th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 20.3% Pass (14th), -16.2% Rush (27th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 0.9% Pass (10th), -0.9% Rush (26th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 4.3% Pass (13th), -13.0% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
No surprises from Tampa Bay and the way they use their weapons. Another inefficient day on the ground for White against a stout run defense, but six receptions and a touchdown are everything we need. The Saints are no different, so you can lock him in.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Similar story here. Evans tore up the Jaguars' secondary to the tune of seven receptions for 82 yards and two scores while his counterpart Chris Godwin went six for 78. Evans is a must-start, particularly with his mortal enemy Marshon Lattimore out, while Godwin is in the top 36.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
It was another massive day for Olave, who is finally actualizing his potential. It's a fantastic matchup, so he's a great option, along with Rashid Shaheed, who has occasionally produces a spike week with a big play as he did against the Rams.
Matchups We Hate:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
The matchup was brutal, so he failed to perform on the ground. He did earn six targets, but everything was close to the line of scrimmage and he couldn't break one off for a longer run. It will be tough sledding on the ground against the Buccaneers, so he'll need to be more productive with his touches through the air.
UPDATE: Kamara is listed as questionable with an illness, which we'll need to monitor over the weekend. Kendre Miller is also questionable, so it could be more Jamaal Williams.
Other Matchups:
Juwan Johnson (TE, NO)
Taysom Hill has played fewer than 20% of the snaps the past two weeks since returning from injury. He's also registered just one passing attempt, one target, and three carries during that time. As a result, Johnson played 72% of the snaps last week, capitalizing on their lack of receiving weapons with four catches for 48 yards and a score. The matchup is awesome, so he's a great streamer.
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
It looked like it was going to be an abysmal day for Carr until he orchestrated multiple scoring drives late in comeback mode. For fantasy purposes, it was better than expected, so there's a reasonable chance he will repeat that outcome in a good matchup.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Mayfield is a win away from potentially securing the NFC South, which while not the toughest division, is still an accomplishment. His array of weapons and ability to captain the offense keeps him in contention as a high-end streamer.
Injuries:
Kendre Miller (ankle)
Alvin Kamara (illness)
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
Spread: 49ers -13.5
Implied Total: 49ers (31.75) vs. Commanders (18.25)
Pace: 49ers (32nd) vs. Commanders (14th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 60.4% Pass (1st), 18.1% Rush (2nd)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -3.4% Pass (25th), -7.2% Rush (18th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -10.7% Pass (4th), -10.8% Rush (15th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 33.1% Pass (32nd), -8.6% Rush (18th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind, which shouldn't have any impact.
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
The 49ers looked human for the first time since their bye week. After bullying teams with physicality, they were hit with a dose of their own medicine by Baltimore. McCaffrey was one of the few players to dominate with another 100+ yard outing and a touchdown. Playing against arguably the worst defense in the NFL is fantastic news for the offense, McCaffrey included. It's also a game where the offense could get up a lot and the backup could get some touches, which will be Elijah Mitchell, who'll return from injury.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
San Francisco moved the ball well but committed far too many turnovers. Kittle was part of those sustained drives, racking up 126 yards on seven catches. He's in a great spot as well.
49ers WRs
After weeks of Deebo Samuel crushing defenses, the Ravens held him in check while Brandon Aiyuk went off with six grabs for 113 yards. You can expect everyone to get in on the action this week.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy had a nightmare outing with tipped passes for interceptions, multiple sacks, and a late-game injury. It couldn't have gone much worse. While some of the criticism is warranted, most signal-callers struggle when they play Baltimore. Their defense and coaching are among the best in the league, plus they have Lamar Jackson eating up the clock on offense. While it can feel risky to give Purdy a pass and throw him out there against Washington, it's the correct move.
Matchups We Hate:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
It was a disastrous day for Washington until they benched Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett and the Jets pulled their starters too early, allowing them to make a comeback. Gibson was playing behind Chris Rodriguez Jr., who suffered a season-ending ankle injury. So with Brian Robinson Jr. out, he found pay dirt late in the game to save his day. The matchup is tough, but as the last man standing, he has some flex appeal, assuming Robinson Jr. is out again.
UPDATE: Robinson will play on Sunday, which craters the value of him and Gibson. They're best left on the bench.
Other Matchups:
Commanders WRs
The team has finally given up on Howell, announcing Brissett as their starter, which is good news for Terry McLaurin, who led the team in receiving last week and flashed a couple of weeks ago when Brissett took over. He returns to the top 36 with Curtis Samuel falling into the flex range because he has more chemistry with Howell.
UPDATE: Unfortunately, it's looking like the team will have to go back to Howell, which makes McLaurin a risky flex option and Samuel moves into the top 36.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Thomas also resurfaced last week with five receptions for 36 yards and a score, so he becomes a streamer despite the tough matchup.
Injuries:
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (ankle)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Implied Total: Steelers (18.75) vs. Seahawks (22.25)
Pace: Steelers (19th) vs. Seahawks (5th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 6.5% Pass (20th), -5.9% Rush (16th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (12th), -9.3% Rush (20th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -1.8% Pass (9th), -11.6% Rush (14th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 14.2% Pass (24th), -6.0% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Steelers RBs
The switch to Mason Rudolph proved to be a rewarding one. Pittsburgh scored over 30 points for the first time this season, hammering the Bengals 34-11. The game script enabled them to pound the rock 30 times for 113 yards, much of which went to Najee Harris, who scored and had a good day. Jaylen Warren did his damage as a runner and receiver with five catches for 30 yards. It's another fantastic matchup for this duo, putting both in play as flex options with upside.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Steelers Passing Attack
As we discussed above, the Steelers scored over 30 points and generated over 400 yards of offense. Yet, there was only one player you felt good about from this group, which was George Pickens. His four receptions were as follows: an 86-yard touchdown, a 44-yard grab, a 31-yard catch, and a 66-yard touchdown. Having any one of those four things occur in a game is a bonus, never mind all of them. The matchup is decent, making Pickens a boom-bust top-36 wideout with everyone else left on the bench.
UPDATE: Kenny Pickett is listed as questionable but the team has named Ruolph the starter regardless.
Seahawks WRs
On the flip side, Seattle's trio of receivers all produced. DK Metcalf hauled in a touchdown with 56 yards, Tyler Lockett caught eight balls for 81 yards, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught six passes for 61 yards. Joey Porter Jr. has been playing extremely well for the Steelers, so Metcalf will be in for a long day, opening things up for the other two. All three are worth starting with Lockett as the safest and Metcalf as the highest ceiling.
UPDATE: Metcalf is listed as questionable, but seems likely to play.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
The good news is that Walker maintained his workhorse role despite playing through an injury that kept him out of practice most of the week. The bad news is that he only turned his 17 touches into 56 scoreless yards. Tennessee's run defense has faded a bit, but they're still a tougher matchup, which is similar to Pittsburgh, who ranks in the middle of the pack in EPA per rush allowed, defensive run DVOA, and rushing yards per attempted allowed. Walker's volume keeps him in the top 24, but he's finished with only one reception in three of his past five outings, which is problematic.
UPDATE: Walker is listed as questionable just as he was last week when he played, but was referred to as a game-time decision. We'll need confirmation over the weekend.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Smith followed in the footsteps of Drew Lock, leading a game-winning drive in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to steal a victory and keep Seattle alive. The matchup isn't great and he's cooled off since his huge day in Dallas, so he's an okay streamer.
Injuries:
Kenny Pickett (ankle)
Kenneth Walker III (shoulder/illness)
DK Metcalf (back)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -3.5
Implied Total: Chargers (16.75) vs. Broncos (20.25)
Pace: Chargers (2nd) vs. Broncos (24th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 18.5% Pass (16th), -17.8% Rush (28th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 10.5% Pass (18th), -3.1% Rush (11th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 19.3% Pass (29th), -3.7% Rush (23rd)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 16.4% Pass (26th), 4.9% Rush (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
The Chargers came out hungry after being embarrassed and firing their head coach and GM. They leaned on Ekeler to carry the load with 15 rushing attempts and three receptions. It was his best game since taking on Denver, coincidentally. The Broncos are reeling and dealing with their own injuries and turmoil, so with multiple pass-catchers injured, Ekeler moves into the top 20 in a superb matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Other Matchups:
Chargers Passing Attack
Easton Stick has exceeded expectations at times, but with Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer both on track to miss, he'll have limited weapons. The Denver secondary, led by Patrick Surtain II, is still an issue, but tight end Gerald Everett has been consistent, and along with Quentin Johnston, is the last remaining option. The matchup is among the best for tight ends, so he's a solid streamer with Johnston more of an upside flex player.
UPDATE: Allen and Palmer have been ruled out as expected.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
Things are unraveling in Denver with Courtland Sutton in concussion protocol and Russell Wilson getting benched for financial reasons. They're technically in the playoff hunt, but they've all but raised the white flag at this point. Williams managed to overcome a tough New England run defense by finding the end zone, but that was about all he did with just 19 total yards. Part of the issue is Samaje Perine taking over when they're trailing, plus Jaleel McLaughlin is involved as a runner. The matchup is awesome, so Williams lands around the top 24. Perine has some flex appeal in full-PPR formats as well.
Broncos WRs
Assuming Sutton cannot get cleared, it would be Jerry Jeudy who theoretically slides into the No. 1 WR role. However, Marvin Mims Jr. and Brandon Johnson will also be part of the game plan and could end up being more productive for fantasy. Jarrett Stidham has had moments of brilliance and the matchup is excellent, so taking a shot on your favorite receiver as a flex option makes sense.
UPDATE: Sutton has been ruled out, making the trio of wideouts flex options with Jeudy and Mims, who are both questionable, as the preferred choices.
Injuries:
Keenan Allen (heel)
Joshua Palmer (concussion)
Greg Dulcich (hamstring/foot)
Courtland Sutton (head)
Marvin Mims Jr. (hamstring)
Jerry Jeudy (illness)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -6.5
Implied Total: Bengals (18.75) vs. Chiefs (25.25)
Pace: Bengals (31st) vs. Chiefs (20th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (15th), -7.0% Rush (17th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 29.5% Pass (5th), -3.2% Rush (12th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (22nd), 2.8% Rush (28th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -9.8% Pass (5th), 4.2% Rush (29th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have mild wind and colder temperatures, which shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
The Chiefs are spiraling and would be at risk of missing the playoffs if they played in a more competent division. One of the teams still competing in their division is Las Vegas, whose defense stole a win from Kansas City on Christmas. They capitalized on a poor handoff exchange, taking the fumble to the house, and then picked off Mahomes and ran it back again on consecutive plays. It was enough to earn them a victory. Mahomes looked distraught at times, frequently taking off to run because of the pressure and his distrust for his O-line and receivers. Much like the 49ers though, they'll get a perfect matchup to bounce back. While it's unlikely to equate to a classic Mahomes outing, it should be good enough for him to earn a spot in the top 12.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce was also visibly frustrated, tossing his helmet on the sideline and calling out the effort of himself and his teammates after the game. After another lackluster performance, you can count on Kelce this week as a top-10 tight end.
Rashee Rice (RB, KC)
The only player who has been crushing it throughout the chaos has been Rice, who had a drop-off last week with six receptions for 57 yards, but led the way again with 12 targets. He's the only one Mahomes trusts outside of Kelce, locking him into the top 24.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
Jerick McKinnon was placed on injured reserve, opening the door for Isiah Pacheco to go off. That was exactly how things were proceeding until his helmet fell off twice in about 10 minutes. The second time it happened, his head collided with a teammate's knee, landing him in concussion protocol. He's yet to practice, which means Edwards-Helaire could be the last man standing in a great matchup, earning him a spot in the top 24.
UPDATE: Pacheco has cleared the concussion protocol, so he should be good to go, which makes Edwards-Helaire a flex option if active.
Matchups We Hate:
Jake Browning (QB, CIN)
The Bengals' magical run ended in spectacular fashion with a beatdown from the lowly Steelers. Browning came crashing down to earth without Ja'Marr Chase, tossing three picks and one touchdown that Tee Higgins did most of the work on. He's no longer someone you can lean on, especially when traveling to Arrowhead.
Other Matchups:
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
As mentioned above, Higgins was blanketed by Joey Porter Jr. for much of the game but broke loose on a short pass for an 80-yard trip to the end zone. He also led the way with eight targets. Tyler Boyd was okay with five receptions for 59 yards. Higgins is going to draw L'Jarius Sneed, who has missed practice all week, in coverage this week, but he remains in the top 24 as the focal point of the offense. It does make Boyd a little more intriguing as a top-36 wideout.
UPDATE: Ja'Marr Chase is listed as questionable, which is a bit of a surprise. If active, he'd take over as the top-24 receiver with Higgins in the top-36.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon's workload was what you'd expect with 11 of the 15 (73%) RB carries and four targets. Unfortunately, the offense didn't generate many scoring opportunities, so he finished with 50 scoreless yards. Chase Brown maintained his secondary role with four rushing attempts and two receptions. The one area where you can beat the Chiefs is on the ground, keeping Mixon in the top 24 with Brown as more of a risky flex option.
Injuries:
Jerick McKinnon (groin)
Isiah Pacheco (concussion/shoulder)
Kadarius Toney (hip)
Mecole Hardman (thumb)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness)
Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -1.0
Implied Total: Packers (21.25) vs. Vikings (22.25)
Pace: Packers (15th) vs. Vikings (8th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 30.6% Pass (4th), -8.7% Rush (19th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 12.4% Pass (17th), -18.0% Rush (29th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 23.3% Pass (30th), -1.0% Rush (25th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -2.5% Pass (7th), -13.6% Rush (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
After weeks of the offense playing without Jefferson, he's now in line to be the only remaining starter along with K.J. Osborn. T.J. Hockenson is done for the year and Jordan Addison is dealing with an ankle injury. Jefferson was a machine against Detroit, making unbelievable catches thanks to Nick Mullens's willingness to throw it up and hope for the best. Unfortunately, the team has elected to go back to Jaren Hall. He has had some game experience with 78 passing yards against the Falcons. It's the worst-case scenario for the offense, but Jefferson was absent in that contest, so hopefully he can help boost his stat line. Green Bay will also be without Jaire Alexander, who the team suspended for one game. Jefferson is a lock, but taking a shot on Osborn or Addison, if active, feels risky.
UPDATE: Addison is listed as questionable, but would be a risky flex option.
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN)
Atlanta is and was a much better defense than the Packers are currently. They gave up 30 points to the Panthers last week. Chandler, who struggled against Detroit, but out-snapped Alexander Mattison 35 to five, is back in play. They'll likely scheme up short passes and call plenty of runs, so Chandler stays in the top 24, even with Mattison potentially carving out a larger role.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones finally looked healthy and dominated Carolina with 127 yards on 21 rushing attempts. AJ Dillon and Jordan Love each stole a touchdown, but Jones is more than capable of finding the end zone. It's a tough matchup, but he's also in the top 24 as one of the few reliable weapons left for offense.
Packers WRs
Christian Watson and Jayden Reed missed the game, leaving Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. Wicks caught a touchdown early before leaving with a chest injury. Doubs ended up hauling in four passes for 79 yards and a score. So far, it's been Wicks and Watson missing practice with Reed getting in a limited session Wednesday and Thursday. The Vikings are a perfect matchup for Reed, so he's in the top 24 if active while Doubs would be in the top 36 if Wicks and Watson are out.
UPDATE: Reed is good to go. Watson has been listed as doubtful, which almost always means out while Wicks is listed as questionable.
Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
Regardless of which receivers are active, Kraft will play a crucial role again. He tied for the team lead in targets with six, catching four of them for 60 yards. That's a decent day at tight end, keeping him in the streaming conversation in a tough matchup.
UPDATE: Luke Musgrave is also listed as doubtful.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Love bounced back against the Panthers, partially because they needed to stay aggressive to win. He totaled three touchdowns with 219 passing yards. It's a brutal matchup, but Minnesota turning to Hall at quarterback could result in more possessions for Green Bay. It's a good over/under, so as long as he has sufficient weapons, he's a streaming candidate.
Injuries:
Luke Musgrave (kidney)
Christian Watson (hamstring)
Dontayvion Wicks (chest/ankle)
Jordan Addison (ankle)
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