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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 10 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week featured many disappointing performances, but there were a few bright spots, mostly from unsung heroes. It's bound to happen when nearly half the league is starting a backup quarterback. The NFL is on location in Germany for another week. It means another game at 9:30 AM EST, so make sure your lineups are ready to go. We now have the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins on bye. This one stings because that's three of the top offenses in the league. It creates issues finding quality options, causing players to move up the ranks that wouldn't normally.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you either had your studs come through or snagged one of those unexpected boom games. Regardless of how Week 9 treated you, Week 10 is a chance for a fresh start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - 9:30 AM ET - Germany Game
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Spread: Colts -2.0
Implied Total: Colts (22) vs. Patriots (21)
Pace: Colts (2nd) vs. Patriots (1st)
Colts Off. DVOA: 17.9% Pass (13th), 2.2% Rush (6th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -3.4% Pass (24th), -6.9% Rush (17th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 3.0% Pass (12th), -4.0% Rush (23rd)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 14.0% Pass (23rd), -17.8% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
After watching the Chiefs and Dolphins square off, the people of Germany get the Colts and Patriots, which has to feel like a major dropoff. One thing worth noting is that the Chiefs and Dolphins, who are averaging a combined 55 points per game, scored just 35 total. We saw sluggish offenses and low-scoring games in London as well, so the travel impact is a factor.
Moving on to the matchup, we begin with Stevenson, who posted over 100 yards from scrimmage, including a huge 64-yard touchdown run. He also earned another six targets, hauling in four of them. The opponent certainly helped contribute to his fruitful day, but Indianapolis is another superb matchup. He's in the top 15 with Ezekiel Elliott, who had nine touches, as a potential flex option.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Josh Downs entered the game with a knee injury and appeared to re-aggravate it partway through the contest, resulting in just 20% of snaps. Meanwhile, it opened the door for Pittman to lead the way with eight targets, all of which he caught for a nice day. His outing also could have been better, but the offense led 20-3 at halftime. New England's secondary continues to struggle, placing Pittman in the top 24 and Downs in the top 36 if healthy.
UPDATE: Despite missing practice all week, Downs is listed as questionable. It seems unlikely he plays, and even if he does there's an added risk of re-injury.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Taylor really took the reigns in this one in a similar fashion to the way the first half of Week 8's game went. He finished with 23 touches for 69 yards and a score, so the efficiency wasn't great. However, Zack Moss saw just seven carries with no targets. They only ran the ball once inside the 10-yard line and that went to Gardner Minshew, but Taylor did have the reception for a touchdown. He goes back into the top 12 against a tougher opponent while Moss moves outside the top 24.
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND)
The quarterback landscape remains somewhat dire, so players like Minshew still warrant a look. As we said earlier, the Patriots no longer boast an elite defense, and Minshew is a dual-threat signal-caller in the red zone. The defense scored twice, so he wasn't asked to do much, but the game should be more competitive, keeping him in the streaming conversation.
Demario Douglas (WR, NE)
Without Kendrick Bourne or DeVante Parker available, Douglas tied JuJu Smith-Schuster for targets (seven), had one less catch, and four more yards. He also led the team in snaps (53) and routes run (38). The offense looked okay in the first half but stalled completely in the fourth quarter, failing to score any points while generating just 69 total yards. Douglas and Smith-Schuster are both flex options because of the missing pieces, with Douglas being the favorite.
UPDATE: Douglas is active for Sunday, and becomes a dependable flex option.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
In addition to the two wideouts, Henry also made his mark with four grabs for 39 yards and a score. It's an average matchup, but seven targets and his red zone prowess keep him in play as a high-end streamer.
Injuries:
Jelani Woods (hamstring)
Josh Downs (knee)
Demario Douglas (ankle)
DeVante Parker (concussion)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Implied Total: Browns (15.75) vs. Ravens (22.25)
Pace: Browns (17th) vs. Ravens (30th)
Browns Off. DVOA: -15.4% Pass (30th), -13.2% Rush (23rd)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 24.3% Pass (11th), 26.7% Rush (1st)
Browns Def. DVOA: -34.0% Pass (1st), -29.4% Rush (1st)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -33.0% Pass (2nd), -21.9% Rush (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
It was another frustrating day to be a Jackson manager. The Seahawks didn't hold up their end of the bargain and keep pace, but the Ravens still put up 37 points. Yet, somehow it was on the leg of Justin Tucker and three touchdowns from the backfield. Further adding insult to injury, the only passing touchdown of the game came after Tyler Huntley took over in the fourth quarter. The matchup is tough, but that may be exactly what is required for the passing attack to produce and be necessitated. Try to stay patient here.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Despite not finding the end zone, Andrews had a dominant outing with nine catches for 80 yards. It's great to see his ability to have a big game even when he doesn't score.
Matchups We Hate:
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
Edwards has a hound-like nose for the end zone right now. After finding pay dirt twice on Sunday, he now has six touchdowns in the past three weeks. What's wild is that he finished fourth on the team in carries this week with five, equating to a 40% touchdown rate. It seems impossible to sustain against the Browns, which is why he's here. Of course, there is a chance he will keep the streak alive, and/or his number of rushing attempts jumps up. He's a boom-bust top 24 back. Keaton Mitchell was back from injury, racking up 138 yards on nine carries. We'll see if he can overtake Justice Hill, who saw 13 touches, but for now, he's more of a stash.
UPDATE: Mitchell is listed as questionable, but is expected to play. His absence would mean a little bit more work for Edwards and Hill.
Ravens WRs
It's hard not to react to Zay Flowers earning just one target compared to seven for Odell Beckham Jr. and five for Rashod Bateman. It definitely raises concerns about his usage. His market share will inevitably jump up relative to last week, but where it lands is hard to predict. At this point, it's best to avoid this whole group against Cleveland.
Browns RBs
Cleveland pitched a shutout against Arizona, enabling them to pound the rock 40 times. Jerome Ford led the way with half of those rushing attempts and five receptions while Kareem Hunt got into the end zone. It's a brutal matchup against the Ravens, but volume, especially as a receiver, should keep Ford in play. The number of touches should be high enough for Hunt, but the matchup makes him difficult to trust this week.
Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE)
Watson played a clean game with no turnovers and completed 63.3% of his passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. It was promising for the offense as a whole, particularly the receiving weapons we focus on for fantasy. However, those numbers were against the Cardinals, not the Ravens, who are second in pass DVOA, second in defensive EPA per dropback, and first in yards per attempt allowed. He's a bench.
Other Matchups:
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
Cooper made a couple of splash plays, averaging 27.8 yards per reception. He also caught a rather flukey tipped ball for a touchdown, but they all count the same. Between the involvement of the backfield and tight ends in the receiving game, it's best just to play Cooper and bench Elijah Moore at this point.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Speaking of tight ends, Njoku scored for the second straight week and finished ahead of Cooper in targets. It was reassuring to see Watson hone in on him the way P.J. Walker was, solidifying him in the top 12 despite the difficult matchup.
Injuries:
Keaton Mitchell (hamstring)
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6.0
Implied Total: Texans (20.5) vs. Bengals (26.5)
Pace: Texans (8th) vs. Bengals (26th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 46.1% Pass (3rd), -26.5% Rush (31st)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 13.3% Pass (18th), -6.9% Rush (16th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (26th), -12.8% Rush (14th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: -1.7% Pass (10th), -3.3% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow has climbed back into the must-start status category of quarterbacks. However, there is some concern about Ja'Marr Chase, who suffered a back injury in their win over the Bills, and Tee Higgins, whose hamstring is acting up. If one is out, his ceiling takes a hit, but he can still get it done with the other weapons they have. If both are out, Burrow would drop into the streamer tier.
Bengals WRs
Chase's injury issues allowed Tee Higgins to steal the show with eight receptions for 100 yards. It's the big game we've been waiting for since Higgins returned healthy after their bye week. Tyler Boyd is the next man up and would become a top-36 wideout if Chase or Higgins is out. Otherwise, he's more of a flex option. It looks like it'll be Chase active and Higgins out, but we'll get an official status on Friday.
UPDATE: Chase is listed as questionable and expected to test out his back Sunday morning while Higgins has been ruled out for Sunday, opening the door for Boyd as a top-36 receiver.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon had his second straight productive outing with 78 yards and a score on 19 touches, including five receptions. That's the type of usage that has kept him in the top 12 conversation for so many years. The Texans have worked hard to become better against the run. It's not the smash matchup it once was, but they're still beatable.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans RBs
After running the ball more than they passed it for two straight weeks, they completely flipped the script against the Buccaneers. They rushed it just 17 times compared to 42 passing attempts, which makes sense given the strength of the Bucs' D is their front. Devin Singletary saw 13 carries and earned two targets but finished with just 26 total yards despite the offense scoring 39 points. The Bengals preview as a similar unit that is easier to throw on, making this group one to avoid whether or not Dameon Pierce is back, which it looks like he won't be at this point.
UPDATE: Pierce has been ruled out, making Singeltary the starter, but a risky flex option.
Other Matchups:
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
It was a record-setting day for Stroud, who passed for 470 yards and five touchdowns while averaging an incredible 11.2 yards per attempt. It was the most passing yards ever by a rookie. The increase in volume allowed him to thrive. The volume is likely to be there on the road this week, but the production has to drop. It's a higher over/under between two good offenses, so Stroud remains a top-12 signal-caller.
Texans WRs
Much like Sam Howell against the Eagles, when the passing attack produces those kinds of numbers, it's going to be a great day for the receiving options. Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Noah Brown, who was in for Robert Woods, all found the end zone. Dell was the leader of the pack with six catches for 114 yards and two scores, followed by Brown and then Collins, who is on the injury report. There's no way all three finish inside the top 12 again in Week 10 against a tough Bengals secondary, but Collins and Dell are top-24 receivers with either Brown or Woods as a flex option. Collins has missed back-to-back practices and could be out for Week 10, which would make Dell and either Brown or Woods more appealing.
UPDATE: Collins has been ruled out, while Woods is listed as questionable. It raises Dell's floor and makes Brown a flex option, who would move into the top 36 if Woods is also inactive.
Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)
After the letdown in Carolina, Schultz bounced back with 10 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. He now has seven-plus targets for 60-plus yards and a score in three of his last four games. That level of volume lands him in the top 12 in what's been a very good matchup this season for tight ends.
Injuries:
Robert Woods (foot)
Dameon Pierce (ankle)
Nico Collins (calf)
Ja'Marr Chase (back)
Tee Higgins (hamstring)
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: 49ers -3.0
Implied Total: 49ers (23.75) vs. Jaguars (20.75)
Pace: 49ers (32nd) vs. Jaguars (14th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 65.4% Pass (1st), 10.7% Rush (3rd)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 24.9% Pass (10th), -10.0% Rush (19th)
49ers Def. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (11th), -1.1% Rush (25th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: -10.4% Pass (5th), -21.3% Rush (4th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have moderate sustained winds with a chance of rain, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
You play McCaffrey in all circumstances, but it would be nice to see Trent Williams, who is at practice, back for this one.
UPDATE: Bank is out while Williams is expected to play, which is good news for Purdy and the offense.
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
It's tempting to buy into the narrative that the 49ers are now a vulnerable defense, but coming off the bye with their newly acquired stud, Chase Young, it's still wise to exercise caution. Lawrence continues to struggle to find the end zone with more than one passing touchdown in two of eight contests. He's a low-upside streamer.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
After taking advantage of Deebo Samuel's absence, Kittle will be relegated back to being a boom-or-bust tight end option. Jacksonville's defense is playing very well, so it's risky to bet on what is typically the third or fourth option in this offense when all four of their weapons are healthy.
Other Matchups:
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
Etienne Jr. had another 27 touches in their Week 8 win over the Steelers, including a 56-yard pass he took to the house. His workload is absolutely elite and he's now found the end zone in four consecutive weeks. The matchup hasn't been nearly as difficult since the decline of the San Francisco front, and while I expect them to perform better, Etienne is locked into the top 12.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Engram led the way against Pittsburgh with 10 grabs for 88 yards. His 23% target share is tied for the league lead at the position with T.J. Hockenson. It's not a great matchup, but he's in the top 10.
Jaguars WRs
In a favorable spot, Calvin Ridley capitalized with a better game, hauling in six passes for 83 yards on 10 targets while Christian Kirk earned half that amount. It was the first poor outing for Kirk since Week 2, so there's no reason to move off of him after one down performance. Ridley on the other hand has been more volatile but has spike weeks in plus matchups, which would describe the 49ers and their secondary. Meanwhile, Zay Jones is back at practice coming out of the bye week, which could complicate matters. If he's active, then Ridley becomes even more risky and Kirk could lose some of his floor.
UPDATE: Jones is going to miss another week, which keeps both Kirk and Ridley in play.
49ers WRs
As we mentioned, Samuel is practicing in full and will be back this week. The bye week seems to have given him the rest he needed. The Jaguars tend to play more of a zone defense, which caters to the play style of Samuel because of his versatility. Both he and Brandon Aiyuk are in the top 24 despite the difficult matchup, knowing the ceiling they offer in what could be a shootout.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Trent Williams is back at practice but their guard Aaron Banks is not, which makes life more difficult for Purdy. The recent struggles were primarily based on turnovers, so if he can clean those up, he'll be just fine in this potent offense with all the weapons active. He's a streamer, especially considering the available options.
UPDATE: Bank is out while Williams is expected to play, which is good news for Purdy and the offense.
Injuries:
Zay Jones (knee)
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Saints -3.0
Implied Total: Saints (22) vs. Vikings (19)
Pace: Saints (10th) vs. Vikings (5th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 9.2% Pass (20th), -5.1% Rush (14th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 20.1% Pass (12th), -19.6% Rush (28th)
Saints Def. DVOA: -4.2% Pass (9th), -10.1% Rush (17th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 4.3% Pass (13th), -15.1% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara's competition for carries is now heating up thanks to the emergence of Taysom Hill. Kendre Miller, who is dealing with an ankle injury, and Jamaal Williams took just four, but Hill had 11. Kamara still led the way with 13 and earned five targets, but Hill was involved there too with the same amount. It's becoming more of a committee, which takes away some of his value, but they will be without Miller. He's still a top-12 back because of his role and because the Saints are averaging the sixth-most points per game over the past three weeks.
Taysom Hill (TE, NO)
Hill was everywhere doing it all. He threw a touchdown, caught a touchdown, and ran well, all with Juwan Johnson back in the lineup. Hill is bordering on being a must-start because of the scarcity at the position and his versatile usage. Johnson also found the end zone on the pass from Hill, so he could be a viable streamer.
Matchups We Hate:
Joshua Dobbs (QB, MIN)
What Dobbs did was historic when you consider the limited preparation he had entering the game. He didn't even know the plays or the names of his teammates, which makes sense because he was the backup. After being thrust into action, he led the Vikings to a miracle win, totaling three touchdowns along the way. It was an incredible performance, but it was against Tampa Bay. Taking on the Saints, he fades into the risky streaming range, although his rushing baseline keeps him as a deeper option.
Other Matchups:
Alexander Mattison (RB, CIN)
A lot of things swung in the right direction from Mattison. Dobbs showed what he can do for the offense, Cam Akers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, and the team has elected to compete for the playoffs. It's not a great matchup, but depending on the involvement of Ty Chandler, he could see 70-plus percent of the work, which makes him a solid starter. It will be a telling week in terms of his projectable volume moving forward.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Similar story here for Hockenson. The upgrade at quarterback is enough to push his ceiling closer to the top five, but certainly in the top 10.
UPDATE: Hockenson is listed as questionable, but seems likely to play.
Jordan Addison (WR, MIN)
Addison earned seven targets, hauling in five for 52 yards. It was a good matchup and Dobbs had success, so it's hard to think that his production will spike this week when New Orleans comes to town and he matches up against Marshon Lattimore. We know the talent is there, but with 12 targets going to Hockenson and nine different players catching a pass, it's tough to trust the volume. We saw Dobbs' tendency to target the tight end in Arizona earlier this year, so that's likely to continue, dropping Addison outside the top 24.
UPDATE: K.J. Osborn cleared the concussion protocol, but it's not a great spot to start him anyway. Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson, whose 21-day practice window is open, is technically listed as questionable, but all the reports indicate he'll be out this week.
Chris Olave (WR, NO)
By the time Kamara and Hill get their portion of the pie, there isn't much left for the receivers. The WR market share was 34% and 23% of that went to Olave. It rendered Michael Thomas unusable while Rashid Shaheed continues to be a shoot-for-the-moon type flex option. Olave is the only one you can trust against the Vikings, whose pass defense has shown improvement. They're now 15th in defensive EPA per dropback, 13th in pass DVOA, and 18th in yards per attempt allowed.
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
Both the positive and negative for Carr held true on Sunday. Hill continues to eat into his passing work, which lowers his ceiling. Yet, he has so many weapons that his floor is higher. He's the "won't bust but won't boom" steady option at QB.
Injuries:
Justin Jefferson (hamstring)
K.J. Osborn (concussion)
Kendre Miller (ankle)
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -3.0
Implied Total: Packers (17.75) vs. Steelers (20.75)
Pace: Packers (11th) vs. Steelers (7th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 17.7% Pass (14th), -17.7% Rush (25th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 7.2% Pass (21st), -10.9% Rush (22nd)
Packers Def. DVOA: 15.5% Pass (25th), -8.0% Rush (19th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -6.0% Pass (7th), -10.9% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Steelers RBs
Pittsburgh's plan of pound the rock and play defense worked to perfection against a very stout run defense last Thursday. They racked up 166 yards on 30 carries. Jaylen Warren was more explosive, as per usual, averaging eight yards per carry while Najee Harris was at a respectable 4.3. Warren finished with over 100 total scrimmage yards, and now they get the Packers. It's a great matchup for an offense that would love to lean on their rushing attack. Warren gets the edge as a top-24 back with Harris not far behind.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
The coaching staff said Jones would be unleashed and he was. He totaled 99 yards and a score on 24 touches. It's his best utilization of the season and could be an indication they're finally willing to give him a workhorse role. He's still on the injury report with his hamstring issue, but so long as he's removed on Friday like last week, then he's a top-24 back. A.J. Dillon saw 10 touches, but the matchup isn't good enough to make him a flex option unless you're desperate.
UPDATE: Jones is off the injury report again, locking him into the top 24.
Matchups We Hate:
Packers WRs
There are far too many receivers involved in a Jordan Love-led offense. Christian Watson is always injured, Romeo Doubs is touchdown-dependent, Jayden Reed doesn't get enough volume, and Dontayvion Wicks exists to sap value from the other three. There's no one to feel confident in despite an above-average matchup. Watson retains the most upside, but it's best to view him as a boom-bust flex option.
Other Matchups:
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB)
Musgrave led the way in yards and found the end zone. He's far from a lock against a talented defense, but still slots in as a streamer given his red zone prowess and big-play capability.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Johnson scored for the first time since the Big Ben era. It's exciting for his outlook and was long overdue statistically. Having played two games at full health, he's caught 15 passes for 175 yards and a score, locking him into the top 24. George Pickens has taken a back seat, hauling in three passes for 21 yards and a score during the same stretch. Pickens falls into the flex category.
Injuries:
Pat Freiermuth (ribs)
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -1.0
Implied Total: Titans (19.25) vs. Buccaneers (20.25)
Pace: Titans (28th) vs. Buccaneers (12th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 7.0% Pass (22nd), 2.1% Rush (7th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 15.1% Pass (16th), -23.6% Rush (30thj
Titans Def. DVOA: 14.4% Pass (24th), -17.0% Rush (8th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 10.5% Pass (16th), -13.4% Rush (12th)
Matchups We Love:
Buccaneers WRs
The Titans are a run-funnel defense, creating an opportunity for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Cade Otton stole the spotlight last week with six catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns, but that's more of an anomaly than a pattern. Evans was serviceable while Godwin disappointed, but both are in play against Tennessee as top-36 options with Evans as the go-to.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry still faced the second-highest amount of rushes with eight-plus defenders in the box, but it was down from Week 8, meaning the defense is somewhat concerned with their passing attack. He also earned four or more targets for the second straight game with Will Levis under center. Tyjae Spears got nine touches and remained involved as a receiver, but Henry was the clear starter. It's not a great matchup, but as slight favorites, you'd expect they'll ride Henry as far as he'll take them in this one.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN)
Hopkins didn't blow up like we hoped he would, but he gets another shot against a vulnerable Tampa Bay secondary. He did earn 11 targets, so with another plus matchup, he's firmly in the top 36. Kyle Philips led the team in receiving yards, but it's best not to go beyond Hopkins in this group.
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White went off with over 100 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns. The game was a shootout, resulting in multiple trips to the red zone, where they handed the ball off to White from the one-yard line twice. We know his role includes the goal line and pass-catching, but the offense hadn't been scoring many points until Sunday. Even with that game, they're still 22nd in points per game. It's hard to put anyone in the "matchups we love" section against Tennessee, but White is capable of overcoming the tough spot on the ground with his receiving ability.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
It's a good matchup and Mayfield has the weapons to succeed as a low-end streamer, which is how he should be viewed this week.
Injuries:
Treylon Burks (concussion)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Falcons -2.0
Implied Total: Falcons (22.75) vs. Cardinals (20.75)
Pace: Falcons (9th) vs. Cardinals (4th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 1.5% Pass (23rd), -6.3% Rush (15th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -7.9% Pass (27th), -4.3% Rush (13th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 23.3% Pass (28th), -16.6% Rush (9th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 31.4% Pass (31st), 2.3% Rush (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Robinson managers are surely infuriated by the decision-making of Arthur Smith and Co. He has just two carries inside the 10-yard line on the season with one inside the five-yard line. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier has 10 and four, respectively. Even Cordarrelle Patterson has two attempts inside the 10-yard line. Last week, we also saw a jet sweep from Jonnu Smith inside the five. It's clear Robinson is relegated to a committee and is not the favorite near the goal line. That being said, the matchup is too good to pass up. Allgeier is also an option in what could be a higher-scoring affair.
Matchups We Hate:
Cardinals RB
Clayton Tune against Cleveland was a recipe for disaster. Scoring zero points and 58 yards of offense is enough to get your team relegated in most leagues. The Falcons are also a stout run defense, but their pass rush is nowhere near as elite as the Browns. More importantly, the Cardinals finally get their superstar back to replace Tune. James Conner's 21-day practice window is open, so there's a chance he will suit up this week. If active, he'd be a top-24 back. If it's not him, it's best to avoid this group.
UPDATE: Conner is good to go for Sunday while Emari Demercado has been ruled out, making him even more intriguing with Keaontay Ingram as the primary backup.
Other Matchups:
Drake London (WR, ATL)
London is on track to suit up on Sunday after missing Week 9. He immediately becomes a top-24 receiver because there is no one else to compete within this group and the matchup is great.
Falcons TEs
Smith came through in the absence of London with five receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. Kyle Pitts had a decent game as well with four receptions for 56 yards. We saw Njoku succeed last week, so there's some hope for one of these two, but the excitement is diminished with London back in the fold.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray is set to make his 2023 debut against Atlanta. It's a decent opponent for him to kick things off with, but the key will be how much he's utilized as a runner. Coming off the injury, there's a strong possibility they limit his rushing attempts, but he's still in the top 12 immediately because there are so many backups starting this week.
Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)
It's a huge boost for Brown, who has struggled with catchable targets all year at only 68%. It's made his high-volume role less valuable, but that all changes with Murray at the helm. A.J. Terrell is a tough CB, so it might not be a huge game for him. That being said, he should receive enough looks to land around the top 24 with a handful of star receivers out or on a bye. Michael Wilson is trying to make his return from injury and would be a flex option if active.
UPDATE: Wilson is listed as questionable for Sunday. This one is tough to gauge, so we'll need more information over the weekend.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
As anticipated, McBride could not overcome the combination of Tune and the matchup. Both factors have improved for Week 10, putting him back into the high-end streamer category.
Injuries:
James Conner (knee)
Zach Ertz (quad)
Michael Wilson (shoulder)
Emari Demercado (toe)
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Lions -3.0
Implied Total: Lions (25.75) vs. Chargers (22.75)
Pace: Lions (29th) vs. Chargers (3rd)
Lions Off. DVOA: 32.0% Pass (6th), 2.7% Rush (5th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 28.6% Pass (8th), -10.0% Rush (20th)
Lions Def. DVOA: -5.2% Pass (8th), -13.1% Rush (13th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 12.7% Pass (21st), -7.6% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Lions RBs
David Montgomery is set to to come back in Week 10 against Los Angeles, in what could be a shootout. Jahmyr Gibbs has earned a role in this offense after multiple productive outings. These two should be able to coexist given that the Lions run the ball over 30 times per game at the fourth-highest rate on the season. Montgomery has the edge around the goal line while Gibbs is the preferred receiver. Both are top-24 tailbacks against the Chargers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
St. Brown is a target machine with minimal competition. That lackluster competition is led by Josh Reynolds, but now also features Donovan Peoples-Jones, who they acquired from the Browns. Whether because the team parted ways with Marvin Jones Jr. or because they've lost faith in Jameson Williams, Reynolds is the only receiver after St. Brown to consider as a flex option.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta has put together an impressive rookie resume with 43 receptions for 434 yards and four scores. He deserves to be viewed as one of the elite tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Throwing the ball to all these weapons is Goff, who is on the road and not where he thrives, but he does have a good matchup. The over/under is high and everyone is healthy, making him a solid streamer.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen was predictably good but not great against New York with eight grabs for 77 yards. It's fair to wonder what his ceiling is with Mike Williams out for the season and Joshua Palmer on Injured Reserve. Defenses are wise to the fact that he's the only weapon in this group, enabling them to double-team and hone in on him. It won't get much easier against Detroit, but he's in the top 20 thanks to the volume.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Even though Ekeler accumulated his fantasy points on the ground with multiple rushing touchdowns against the Jets, it was the seven targets that was nice to see. It only led to two catches for 23 yards, but it won't always be such a poor outcome. Aside from Allen, there's really no one to lean on, ensuring his floor as a receiving option.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Things are somewhat reminiscent of 2022 when Herbert was missing pieces and struggling to score touchdowns. It's only one week, so it's not time to panic just yet, but there could be cause for concern if he struggles again in Week 10.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC)
With so few players to lean on in the passing attack, Everett will always haver a chance to show out. He hasn't done that much in 2023, partly because Donald Parham Jr. is sharing the workload. He's a potential streamer here with plenty of scoring projected.
Injuries:
Joshua Palmer (knee)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -17.0
Implied Total: Giants (10.75) vs. Cowboys (27.75)
Pace: Giants (20th) vs. Cowboys (24th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -29.7% Pass (32nd), -28.9% Rush (32nd)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 17.4% Pass (15th), -13.9% Rush (24th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 12.6% Pass (20th), 1.1% Rush (28th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -7.4% Pass (6th), -17.7% Rush (6th)
Matchups We Love:
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb is unstoppable at the moment after another huge day against the Eagles. He's an easy must-start. Beyond him, it's unlikely they need to air it out against a Tommy Devito-led offense, so it's best to tread cautiously with Brandin Cooks or Michael Gallup.
Matchups We Hate:
Giants Passing Attack
After first losing Tyrod Taylor to Injured Reserve, the Giants lost Daniel Jones to a season-ending knee injury. Devito has been named the starter, which eliminates everyone here from contention as an option.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
The only player from New York you can start is Barkley, who will rely solely on volume against a quality defense. The last time these two met, the result was 40-0 for Dallas.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Ferguson has been heating up the past two weeks, much like the rest of the offense. Unfortunately, he may not be required to do too much in this one, but he's still a reliable streamer who has a strong shot to score.
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
If ever there was ever a spot for Pollard to break off big runs and find the end zone, this would appear to be it. The defense is bound to create turnovers leading to short fields. It merely comes down to whether the touchdowns come on the ground or through the air, and at what point they pull their starters. If you've got Pollard on your roster, it feels like a situation you have to start him. Rico Dowdle is also a sneaky flex option because the cleanup duty could be assigned to him.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
It's the same theme here for Prescott, who played awesome against Philly, but came up just short as the Cowboys often do. It's hard to move off of him after multiple high-end weeks, but the damage could be done by the defense and rushing attack.
Injuries:
Darren Waller (hamstring)
Tyrod Taylor (ribs)
Daniel Jones (knee)
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -6.0
Implied Total: Commanders (18.75) vs. Seahawks (25.75)
Pace: Commanders (16th) vs. Seahawks (13th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -5.1% Pass (25th), -0.3% Rush (9th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 26.1% Pass (9th), -7.3% Rush (18th)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 28.6% Pass (29th), -15.1% Rush (11th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 12.5% Pass (19th), -9.2% Rush (18th)
WEATHER: This game may have rain, which could result in more turnovers and drops.
Matchups We Love:
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
The Seahawks became the most recent victim of the Ravens, getting trounced 37-3. It's an embarrassing loss, but hosting Washington is an ideal way to get back on track. It's hard to make conclusions in such a lopsided contest, but Walker earned more touches while Zach Charbonnet played more snaps. It's a smash spot for both backs with Walker as a top-12 back and Charbonnet as an upside flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
It's not such a good situation for Robinson Jr., who had experienced the low of a fumble and the high of a touchdown against New England. Furthermore, Antonio Gibson keeps excelling as a receiver, hauling in five passes for 42 yards. Both are outside the top 24, but it projects to be another pass-heavy game script, favoring Gibson as a flex option.
Other Matchups:
Sam Howell (QB, WAS)
They're running the offense similar to how Eric Bieniemy was with the Chiefs, passing a lot and spreading the ball around. Nine different players caught a pass on Sunday. It worked for Howell a couple of weeks ago against the Eagles, but not so much against the Patriots. He's still a viable streamer because Washington leads the NFL in passing attempts, but the matchup forces him to rely on that volume and his receiving corps.
Commanders WRs
The leaders of that group are Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. They both earned eight targets. McLaurin led the way in receptions and yards, while Dotson found the end zone. One thing that's been beneficial is the absence of Curtis Samuel, who has been practicing and could be in the lineup on Sunday. McLaurin will be in the top 24 regardless of who else is active, but Dotson falls outside of that range if Samuel is back.
UPDATE: Samuel is listed as questionable, but is expected to play, which lower Dotson's value.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Now that Howell is utilizing his receivers more and spreading the ball around, Thomas has become inconsistent. It's typical of most tight ends, so he's not a complete avoid, but the floor is much lower with so many other players involved.
Seahawks WRs
Tyler Lockett led the team in targets, followed by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and then DK Metcalf. As mentioned above, it's hard to extrapolate what happened in their blowout loss, but the rookie may begin to grow his role. It's a fantastic matchup, so Lockett stays in the top 24, followed by Metcalf and Smith-Njigba in the top 36.
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
After two passing touchdowns in Weeks 7 and 8, Week 9 was not so kind. Same situation here, he was outmatched last week but gets a shot at redemption against the Commanders as a potential streamer.
Injuries:
Curtis Samuel (foot)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Jets -1.0
Implied Total: Jets (18.75) vs. Raiders (17.75)
Pace: Jets (15th) vs. Raiders (18th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -14.3% Pass (29th), -19.2% Rush (26th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: -10.8% Pass (28th), -19.3% Rush (27th)
Jets Def. DVOA: -13.1% Pass (4th), -7.1% Rush (21st)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 5.3% Pass (15th), 1.9% Rush (29th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
After cleaning house, the Raiders decimated the Giants. They then proceeded to celebrate like they'd won a playoff game, which is understandable after all the negativity they dealt with. Jacobs was particularly pleased with his new coach, who allowed him to tote the rock 26 times for 98 yards and two touchdowns. The game was over quickly, allowing them to lean on their rushing attack. Jacobs is a must-start given the matchup and his usage.
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
13 targets is an amazing number to hit. Only 67% were catchable, which aligns with the seven he hauled in. Wilson has a 32% target share on the season, which is tied for the league lead. The ceiling isn't there because Zach Wilson is a below-average signal-caller, but he's a solid top-24 receiver.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Hall, on the other hand, is a little more volatile. The workload will be there, but the offense's inability to sustain drives and get into scoring position forces him to break off a big play. He has six breakaway runs (15-plus yards) on the year, so it's certainly in his arsenal, but depending on that is risky.
Matchups We Hate:
Raiders Passing Attack
Putting someone with the talent of Davante Adams in this section feels criminal. Yet, he's struggled to produce regardless of who is tossing him the pigskin, and now he'll face Sauce Gardner. It's not great for him or Jakobi Meyers, who saved his day with a rushing touchdown. It could also be a blowout win because the Jets tend not to generate much offense.
Other Matchups:
None
Injuries:
None
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -7.0
Implied Total: Broncos (19.75) vs. Bills (26.75)
Pace: Broncos (22nd) vs. Bills (27th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 13.9% Pass (17th), -2.9% Rush (12th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 49.7% Pass (2nd), 0.9% Rush (8th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 35.3% Pass (32nd), 6.4% Rush (31st)
Bills Def. DVOA: 12.4% Pass (18th), -10.9% Rush (15th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to be a little colder with moderate wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
The shoulder continues to be a point of emphasis for Allen, but he keeps coming through for fantasy. He'll be featured in prime time once again, this time taking on Denver in his quest for another top-five performance.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Similar to Allen, Diggs has been very consistent in 2023, finishing inside the top 16 in half-PPR scoring in seven of his nine games, including three top-five weeks. While Gabe Davis busted in Week 9, the offense as a whole didn't look so good against Cincinnati. He'll avoid Patrick Surtain II in coverage, which could lead to a spike week.
UPDATE: After limited participation at practice on Saturday, Diggs is questionable to play Monday night. Khalil Shakir becomes a good pivot option, but hopefully we know more on Sunday.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
Kincaid led the team in targets (11) and receptions (10). He also had 81 yards. Until Dawson Knox is back, Kincaid is locked into the top 10 with top-five upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
The Bills are still lacking elite superstars in their secondary, but trusting Wilson on the road in prime time feels like a dangerous bet to make. There are likely better streaming options.
Other Matchups:
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Cook didn't have to deal with Leonard Fournette, nor was Latavius Murray a nuisance in Week 9. However, he ceded eight carries to Allen, which cratered his rushing output. He did earn four targets, all of which he caught. It's a really good matchup in a game they should dominate, so he's a high-upside flex option, especially if Fournette is inactive again.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
Williams was taking over the lead back role before the Broncos entered their bye week. He should emerge even healthier now, setting him up as a top-24 back against a Buffalo defense that is reeling. The last time we saw this group, it was Williams with the majority of the work, so it's best to move away from Samaje Perine or Jaleel McLaughlin.
Broncos WRs
Both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy found pay dirt against the Chiefs in their surprising victory. The Bills rank 18th in pass defense DVOA, 18th in defensive EPA per dropback, and 19th in yards per attempt allowed. Denver should be trailing and need to rely on this duo to come back. Sutton is the favorite because his touchdown streak has been incredible, but both are flex options.
Injuries:
Dawson Knox (wrist)
Damien Harris (neck)
Stefon Diggs (back)
Greg Dulcich (leg)
