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The NFL Draft and free agency are officially complete. With these big transactional periods in the rearview window, fantasy managers can now officially look back and see who has been the biggest winner of the offseason. For this series, I’ll review each fantasy-relevant positional group and identify the biggest winners and why they’re winners.
The first series started with the quarterback position, which you can find here. This series will briefly explain why these players see their fantasy values rise from where they started in March and April. Multiple things have broken their way for many of these players, setting them up for a surprisingly good 2024 season.
The 2024 NFL running-back draft class wasn’t great, but there have been many winners this offseason, which we’ll identify. Let’s get started. If you’d like a 10% discount on all of our premium RotoBaller Tools, please use the discount code “BOOM” at checkout.
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Chase Brown and Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati traded Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans. In 2023, Mixon logged 257 carries, 64 targets, and 52 receptions for 1,410 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
Brown, who was on the roster last season as a rookie, played well and saw his role grow at the end of the season. Cincinnati didn’t bring in a big name or draft a highly sought-after prospect. Instead, they only signed Zack Moss. Moss played well in Indianapolis last season in relief of Jonathan Taylor. Both of these players have little competition. Moss is a four-year journeyman, and Brown is a former fifth-round pick. Both will have ample opportunities to carve out a sizable role in what has been a very productive fantasy backfield.
The Bengals also strengthened their offensive line this offseason by signing former Patriot Trent Brown to play right tackle and drafting Amarius Mims out of Georgia in the first round. The team has done little to improve its tight-end position, adding only Mike Gesicki to a group that included Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson. The lack of quality receiving options could lead to more drop-off passes for the running backs.
Redraft RB Bargain 🚨 Zack Moss
Currently the (RB34!!!) via @FantasyPros for redraft.
Joe Mixon has finished as a top 10 RB (PPR) in the last 3 years for the Bengals.
Over the last 3 years, he’s averaged:
🔹253 rushing attempts
🔹51 receptions
🔹12 TDsAdditionally, has… pic.twitter.com/1DkJApBZ8c
— Lobo (@LobosFFDen) May 8, 2024
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Say what you will about Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, but both players are light years better than Kenny Pickett. The acquisition of Wilson and Fields will ensure the Pittsburgh offense receives better and more dynamic quarterback play in 2024. This will increase scoring opportunities for everyone involved, including Harris and Warren.
The Steelers focused on their offensive line heavily in this year’s draft. They added left tackle Troy Fautanu out of Washington in the first round, center Zach Frazier out of West Virginia in the second round, and guard Mason McCormick out of South Dakota State in the fourth round. Their biggest holes were at left tackle and center, which they filled with their first two picks.
Harris, the primary ball-carrier, will get better blocking and more scoring opportunities. Warren, the primary pass-catcher, will also receive the same benefits as Harris, but Wilson has targeted running backs at one of the highest rates the past two seasons.
Think sneaky offseason winners are #Steelers RBs:
* Run-game hardo Arthur Smith hired as OC
* QB position improved/stabilized
* Draft yielded LT Troy Fautanu (20th overall), C Zach Frazier (51st overall), OG Mason McCormick (119th overall)— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 29, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Going into this year’s offseason, the Patriots offense looked abysmal. It was ugly, but a lot of talent has been added to it since then. With their first-round pick and No. 3 overall pick, the Patriots drafted Drake Maye out of North Carolina. They had already signed quality veteran Jacoby Brissett to potentially be a bridge quarterback. Either way, the Patriots offense will receive better quarterback play this season.
New England drafted Ja'Lynn Polk out of Washington in Round 2 and Javon Baker out of UCF in Round 4. These two receivers add a much-needed infusion of young talent to a depleted pass-catching group. They also selected offensive linemen in the third and fourth rounds, Caedan Wallace from Penn State and Layden Robinson from Texas A&M.
New head coach Jerod Mayo hired former Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to run the offense. When Nick Chubb had some of his best years, Van Pelt was in Cleveland. With the improved coaching and the influx of young talent around him, Stevenson is in a good spot to have a nice bounce-back campaign.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There was a lot of possible turnover with the Tampa Bay offense, but the front office got deals done with Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, ensuring they stay with the team for the next year or two. That’s a great thing for White! After making those deals, Tampa Bay's biggest offensive hole was at center. In the first round, it selected Graham Barton out of Duke. Barton will start at center and should immediately improve the team's offensive-line play.
White was a true three-down workhorse last year. Despite this heavy workload, the team did very little to add competition to the backfield. They selected Bucky Irving from Oregon first in the fourth round. Considering his size limitations -- he’s just 195 pounds -- it’s hard to imagine Irving stealing too much of White’s work. White is set up for another 300+ touch season on what should be another quality offense.
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
Carolina wasn’t viewed as one of the better landing spots for a rookie running back, but it looks fairly appealing now. First, the organization hired Dave Canales, Tampa Bay’s former offensive coordinator. Before that, he was in Seattle. He helped revitalize the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield and is viewed as one of the NFL's young, up-and-coming offensive minds. Theoretically, this should help get the most out of second-year passer Bryce Young and the entire offense.
Carolina traded for Diontae Johnson from the Steelers, giving its pass-catching group some legitimate talent outside. It also selected receiver Xavier Legette from South Carolina for the first round. He had over 1,250 yards in his final year in college. Together, Legette and Johnson will vastly improve this team’s talent at receiver, which will help teams from stacking the box.
Carolina has dished out two of the most expensive contracts to offensive linemen this offseason, signing guards Damien Lewis, formerly of the Seahawks, and Robert Hunt, formerly of the Dolphins. These two additions should drastically improve the offensive line's play.
Canales leaned on Rachaad White last season in Tampa Bay, and Brooks could become his version of that in Carolina. This offense has received a ton of talent this offseason, both on the sidelines in the form of Canales’ play-calling and scheming and talent both at offensive line and receiver.
In Dave Canales' offense last year, Rachaad White ranked:
-9th in targets (70)
-4th in receptions (64)
-3rd in route participation (68.9%)Now Jonathon Brooks, a stellar pass-catching RB, could find himself in that role in Carolina.
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) April 27, 2024
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
If you’re going to get traded from one of the most fantasy-friendly backfields in the NFL, it’s nice to land in another one of the most fantasy-friendly backfields in the NFL. Houston currently employs three first-round, two second-round, and one third-round offensive linemen. This doesn’t include starter Shaq Mason, who was a fourth-rounder. This offensive line has blue-collar talent and plenty of depth. That includes tackle Blake Fisher, whom it added out of Notre Dame in the second round this year.
Last year, the Texans made Devin Singletary their lead and starting running back in Week 10. Within Weeks 10-20, Singletary averaged 16 carries per game, 70.6 rushing yards, 0.45 rushing touchdowns, 3.3 targets, 2.6 receptions, and 18.5 receiving yards per game. Dameon Pierce was effectively relegated to a bench role. Singletary’s averages over 17 games would equal 272 carries, 1,200 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, 56 targets, 44 receptions, and 315 receiving yards.
Houston did not bring in any other running-back competition, so it’s just Mixon and Pierce. Mixon should be expected to be the clear No. 1 running back in Houston this season. With the trade acquisition of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, Houston’s offense should be one of the best in the NFL, which will give Mixon plenty of scoring opportunities.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Since being drafted by the Raiders, Josh Jacobs has averaged 17.9 carries, 3.3 targets, and 2.7 receptions per game. That amounts to 304 carries, 56 targets, and 45 receptions a season. He’s also averaged 98.2 scrimmage yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game, which amounts to 1,669 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns a season. Jacobs is now a member of the Green Bay Packers.
The only competition the Raiders brought in for White is Alexander Mattison. Mattison has 2,370 rushing yards in five seasons. From 2021-2023, Mattison has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Based on these offseason moves, White should be expected to be the lead back for the Raiders offense, which could easily result in 250+ touches for the second-year running back.
The Raiders signed Gardner Minshew II to help provide more stability at the quarterback position. They also selected Brock Bowers in the first round. With Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and now Bowers, defenses cannot stack the box to stop the run. Las Vegas also drafted Jackson Powers-Johnson out of Oregon, the consensus No. 1 center in this year’s NFL Draft.
Nice vote of confidence from #Raiders in Zamir White this offseason:
1. Let Josh Jacobs walk in free agency
2. Only added Alexander Mattison, PFF's No. 56 RB among 63 qualifiers last season
3. Used just 1-of-8 draft picks at RB, a Round 6 pick on pass-catcher Dylan Laube
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 28, 2024
Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh as head coach and Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. Together, these two have had some of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. They’ve also effectively run offenses dating back to their respective time in San Francisco and Baltimore.
Los Angeles drafted the consensus best offensive lineman in the draft, tackle Joe Alt, out of Notre Dame. Alt and Rashawn Slater will give the Chargers one of the best tackle duos in the NFL and should immediately benefit what was a below-average group of blockers last season.
Vidal is just a sixth-round pick, but the competition at running back is incredibly scarce. The team has signed Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Edwards is a five-year veteran who has received over 145 carries in a season just once, had over 725 rushing yards just once, and had 30 receptions in his career. Dobbins has played in just 24 out of 51 games. He suffered a torn Achilles in 2023, which ended his season in Week 1. In 2022, he suffered a torn ACL, LCL, hamstring, and meniscus.
Vidal is in a run-heavy offense, with excellent coaching, an elite quarterback, and competition at running back that amounts to a five-year journeyman and a running back with a significant injury history who might never be the same.
Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard, currently a Titan, had 252 carries, 1,005 yards, and six touchdowns. He also had 67 targets, 55 receptions, and 311 receiving yards. The Dallas depth chart features Elliott, Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, and Royce Freeman. Vaughn is 175 pounds.
Based on their offseason moves, the team will use a running back-by-committee approach. Dowdle has the best chance of securing a three-down role. Vaughn is best seen as a pass-catching, change-of-pace back, and Elliott is your goal-line touchdown vulture. Pollard finished sixth with the most carries inside the 10-yard line and sixth in carries inside the 5-yard line with 13. Zeke will likely get the first crack at these touches, which could result in a double-digit-touchdown-scoring season.
Vaughn and Elliott are incapable of handling a three-down role; Vaughn due to his size, and Elliott due to his age and decreased skill set. Dowdle is the most likely candidate to play the most snaps and have a combination of targets and touchdowns. He’s the ideal target, and the backfield competition sets him up to run away with the job if he can outplay those two alternatives.
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