RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 3 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 2 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 2, our biggest risers were Jameson Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, Isaiah Likely, Brock Bowers, and J.K. Dobbins. Our biggest fallers were Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison Jr. (whoops), Javonte Williams, Christian Kirk, and Zamir White. What do you think? Not bad, huh?
Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 3.
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Week 3 Fantasy Football Risers
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
Shaheed was an “other riser” last week, but this week, I’m putting him in the spotlight. He’s only averaging 4.5 targets per game, but they’re highly valuable ones. He’s scored in both games and was even used in the running game in Week 2 with three rush attempts.
New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has turned this offense into a powerhouse. Through two games, they’re averaging 45.5 points per game. As a result of the two blowouts, Derek Carr has only thrown the ball on average 19.5 times per game. That gives Shaheed a 23.7% target share. Last season, he had just a 14.3% target share. Maybe he’s just as good as Chris Olave:
Over their last 21 full games together...
Chris Olave
+ 64.3 YPG (WR21) ✅
+ 2.20 YPRR (WR16) ❌
+ 8.1 YPT (WR40) ❌
+ ESPN ADP: WR10 ❌Rashid Shaheed
+ 56.6 YPG (WR30) ❌
+ 2.21 YPRR (WR15) ✅
+ 11.8 YPT (WR1) ✅
+ ADP: WR56 ✅— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 16, 2024
After being a part-time player for two seasons, Shaheed is finally getting an opportunity to showcase his talents as a full-time receiver. And he’s thriving!
CARR TO SHAHEED 70 YARDS 🔥
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GV0MW5cduw— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Before Week 2 of the 2024 season, JSN’s previous career-high in targets was 11. He had also never gone over 63 yards in a single game. He blew both of those numbers out of the water this past week, catching 12 balls for 117 yards on 16 targets. That came a week after putting up a dud in Week 1 against the Broncos.
Some very promising signs on #Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba:
1. Has run 69 routes on 76 Geno dropbacks this season. That's more than Tyler Lockett (62).
2. Still getting a lot of short-area targets, but now mixing in deeper routes. Average depth of target yesterday was 10.6… pic.twitter.com/45PT8IlzFM
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024
He’s never done this before, so maybe this is just a one-time thing. The likelihood is that Denver's defense is very good and that this Smith-Njigba from Week 2 is what we should come to expect going forward. His NFL Next Gen chart goes wild and is vastly different from how we saw him utilized under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron last season.
You might have benched him in Week 2, but that's okay, brighter days are ahead. You're now holding onto a gold mine with some nice matchups on the horizon as long as the utilization from Week 2 sticks going forward.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers put Godwin back in the slot this season and he has eaten through two weeks. He’s been so good in the slot that we’re officially nicknaming him “The Slot God.”
Chris Godwin wide open 🙌 A 41-yard TD for the @buccaneers!
📺: #TBvsDET on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/kxcTAKc9uD— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Last season, Godwin played 35% of his snaps from the slot and averaged 1.73 yards per route run (YPRR). This season, he’s played 65% of his snaps from the slot and is averaging 3.92 YPRR. The Bucs told us he’d go back to playing primarily out of the slot this season, but they didn’t tell us he’d be this good!
Highest graded wide receiver this season in receiving?
Chris Godwin
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 16, 2024
Last season, Godwin had just two touchdowns on 130 targets. This season, he already has two on just 16 targets. If this level of production continues, we could be looking at one of the biggest steals of fantasy drafts this season.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Flowers has now started the season with back-to-back double-digit target games, a feat he wasn’t able to accomplish as a rookie. He now looks like the clear-cut No. 1 option in Baltimore despite the presence of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. His utilization is looking mighty nice through two games:
Zay Flowers looking like clear-cut No. 1 for Ravens through two games:
16.6 fantasy points per game
98% routes
30% targets
29% air yardsNice aDOT bump in Week 2 (11.0) with 37% air yards.
If that continues, more big days to come.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 15, 2024
What’s even more impressive about his Week 2 production is that it was a positive game script for most of the game. Despite the Ravens playing with the lead, Flowers still managed to put up a line of 7-91-1 on 11 targets. As the kids say these days, he’s him.
First TD of the year for @ZayFlowers 💐
Tune in on CBS and @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/XIrwdkOhn1
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 15, 2024
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
The gift that keeps on giving. Through two games, Conner is averaging 21 opportunities per game. He’s currently the RB8 overall in fantasy football. He was drafted as the RB20 this season after the Cardinals spent premium draft capital on Trey Benson. But it’s been Conner who’s been the workhorse. And he’s been really good!
The sample could not be smaller. But I'm posting RB efficiency stats anyway.
Missed tackles forced vs. yards from scrimmage per touch:
- Singletary has been very elusive!
- Aaron Jones/James Conner not washed
- Dobbins is amazing
- Data is pre-MNF, Saquon likely better now pic.twitter.com/Nj01plnNQM
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) September 17, 2024
Despite missing multiple games each of the last three seasons, Conner has completely resurrected his career in the desert. He’s now scored 37 total touchdowns in 43 games with the Cardinals. Head coach Jonathan Gannon loves this guy. Here he was talking about him in training camp. We should have listened.
#Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon on James Conner:
“He’s been fantastic. He’s improving his game. He looks very explosive out there. Fresh, big, strong. He’s gonna have a good year.” pic.twitter.com/HsUcA2NWBI
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 1, 2024
Other Risers: Hunter Henry, Alvin Kamara, Jalen Tolbert, Zach Charbonnet, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary, Braelon Allen
Week 3 Fantasy Football Fallers
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White has totaled just 49 yards on the ground on 25 carries through two games. If not for the six catches for 75 yards in Week 1, we'd be talking about him as one of the biggest busts at his average draft position (ADP) this season.
His snap share remains high (70%), but rookie Bucky Irving has looked like the better of the two runners. White has lacked explosiveness this season.
RB percentage of carries that were explosive runs (10+ yards) or stuffed (tackled for a loss or no gain) this season (min. 15 carries, PFF)
Only five players rank as bottom-10 backs in both:
Kyren Williams
D'Andre Swift
Rachaad White
Javonte Williams
Zach Charbonnet pic.twitter.com/HFvlTswrrf— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 17, 2024
That should come as no surprise, as White was 47th among running backs in breakaway run rate (2.2%) a season ago. He was propped up by volume last season. However, despite the fourth-most weighted opportunities in 2023, White finished as the RB14 in half-PPR leagues.
He was going to need that volume once again this season to pay off at ADP. With Irving playing the way he's played, that doesn't appear like it'll be the case again this season.
.@BuckyIrving amassed a team-high 62 rushing yards & his 6.9 yards per carry is the highest mark by a Buccaneer in their first career game in franchise history 💰
🔜 #TBvsDET 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX pic.twitter.com/LrqToL7XoG
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 9, 2024
Consider selling White while there's still some semblance of name value.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Was Arthur Smith the problem? Through two games, Pitts has caught just six balls for 46 yards on seven targets. He saved his fantasy managers in Week 1 by scoring a touchdown, but no such luck came in Week 2.
What's even worse is that Pitts' route participation came down drastically in Week 2. Fantasy managers were feeling good after Week 1 when he posted a 100% route participation rate. Then, in Week 2, that number came down to just 74%. As a reminder, Pitts had an 87% route participation rate in 2023 with Smith as his offensive coordinator.
Maybe he's not getting open. Maybe the knee injury from a couple of years ago never truly healed correctly. Whatever the case may be, Pitts isn't anything close to what he was in college and in his second season when he posted a 27.3% target share and 34.3% target rate before suffering the injury.
If his route participation stayed near 100% in Week 2, maybe we'd be talking about Pitts a little differently this week. However, it did come down and it appears Kirk Cousins has eyes for Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and even Ray-Ray McCloud III more than he does for Pitts.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Ford looked like a workhorse in Week 1, handling 79% of the RB opportunities on a 75% snap share. However, things changed drastically in Week 2. Ford was out-touched 15-8 by D'Onta Foreman, who played just one snap in Week 1. That came in a game the Browns played with the lead throughout.
In Week 3, their opponent is the New York Giants, and in Week 4, they get the Raiders. Both teams are susceptible to the run, which is good news for Foreman and not-so-good news for Ford based on their respective usages in Week 2.
It's not necessarily all doom and gloom for Ford, though. He's still averaging 5.68 yards per carry this season and the Browns are now without Pierre Strong Jr., who suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2.
If the Browns play from behind, Ford likely sees more snaps (and more opportunities) than Foreman. However, it's hard to know when that'll be the case. For now, Ford is a faller with Foreman taking away significant opportunities in the run game.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
MPJ has fallen victim to Anthony Richardson's passing woes. Through two games, he's caught just seven balls for 52 yards on 15 targets. The 15 targets are solid, but the catch percentage (46.7%) and low yards per catch (7.43) are an issue.
That's without Josh Downs (ankle) in the mix. Downs practiced in full last Friday, so the expectation is he returns in Week 3 in some capacity. That only complicates things further for Pittman, who is already battling Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce for targets.
Last season, Pittman got by on sheer volume (159 targets) and a high catchable target rate of 75.6% (per PlayerProfiler). Although a small sample size, his catchable target rate is just 50% this season.
Richardson's struggles as a passer (49% completion rate through two games), as well as the Colts' desire to run the football, spells bad news for a receiver that needs a lot of volume to return fantasy value.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
You might be thinking to yourself, "How is Najee Harris a faller after getting 19 opportunities in Week 2?" Well, his RB opportunity share dropped from 73.3% in Week 1 to 59.4% in Week 2. That came as a result of Jaylen Warren going from a 31% snap share in the opener to a 48% snap share in Week 2.
That trend likely continues heading into Week 3 given the success he found this past weekend. It's even more likely if he pass-blocks his butt off like he did here:
Broncos send a cool pressure with Alex Singleton fake dropping out before looping around. Jaylen Warren shows great eyes to pick it up. Justin Fields puts an out breaker on the money. Fun third down snap all around. pic.twitter.com/eb8Jbs9aoG
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) September 17, 2024
Harris also isn't being used in the passing game. Through two weeks, he has just a 19.6% route participation rate (per PFF). Last season, his route participation wasn't very high, either, but it was still over 30%.
The Steelers have also scored just one touchdown in two games. If Najee isn't scoring touchdowns or catching passes out of the backfield, his ceiling is severely capped. If you're looking for 7-9 fantasy points per game, he's your guy. But if you yearn for double-digit points consistently, it'd behoove you to look elsewhere.
Other Fallers: Tyler Lockett, Wan'Dale Robinson, Greg Dortch, Jaleel McLaughlin, Amari Cooper
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