RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 14 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 13 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 13, our biggest risers were T.J. Hockenson, Bucky Irving, Aaron Jones, and Devaughn Vele. Irving made us look great, while Jones unfortunately can't stop fumbling the rock. Our biggest fallers were Cade Otton, Javonte Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Rachaad White. All of these guys continued their downward trend in Week 13.
Even though he continues his meteoric rise, we won't highlight Irving again as a riser. We also won't continue to beat a dead horse with Otton, Williams, and White as fallers. Instead, we'll talk about some other guys who saw their values rise or fall coming out of Week 13. Without further ado, here are some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 14.
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Week 14 Fantasy Football Risers
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers
The rookie wideout from Georgia just continues to get better and better. It appears that both the coaching staff and Justin Herbert have the utmost confidence in McConkey. Believe it or not, Week 13 was the first time he had double-digit targets in a game this season. He turned that into a season-high nine receptions for 117 yards.
Every catch today by Ladd McConkey👍 pic.twitter.com/q6PnDPthHh
— La-Dee-Dee Mc-Con-Kay⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ (@SunnySideUp211) December 2, 2024
But what's even more impressive from Week 13 are his advanced receiving metrics. Per Fantasy Points Data, McConkey led all wide receivers (minimum 10 routes) in both yards per route run (4.88) and first-read target share (60%) this past weekend. He has produced 100 receiving yards in three of his last six games.
After a tough loss to the Ravens in Week 12, in which McConkey had just a 16.7% target share, the Chargers coaching staff game-planned around the rookie in Week 13. That led to a whopping 50% target share against the Falcons.
Up next are multiple favorable matchups. McConkey and company get the Chiefs in Week 14, and then it's the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Patriots for the fantasy football playoffs.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans
Forget Calvin Ridley, NWI is the new sheriff in town. He now has eight touchdowns in eight games since the Titans' bye in Week 5. Before the bye, Westbrook-Ikhine hadn't even drawn a single target on his 25% snap share.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a TD machine. His 8th TD in 8 games!
📺: #TENvsWAS on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Cu6cD0Ep82— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024
So, why was he never considered a riser in previous weeks? Maybe he should have been, but in Week 13, he did something he hadn't done during the entire season. Per Fantasy Points Data, he bested Ridley in target share (18.9% vs. 16.2%), yards per route run (1.65 vs. 1.22), and first-read target share (25.9% vs. 18.5%).
Westbrook-Ikhine rarely comes off the field. The Titans also have a very friendly schedule for receivers the rest of the way, with matchups against the Jaguars (x2), Bengals, and Colts. He might not be a high-volume guy, but clearly, he always has a chance to find the end zone.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
With Austin Ekeler now on IR, this is (mostly) Robinson's backfield. That came to fruition in Week 13, with B Rob getting most of the work before being spelled by Chris Rodriguez Jr. once the game got out of hand.
12. 12 of Chris Rodriguez’s 13 touches came in the 4th quarter.
Through the first three, Brian Robinson saw:
* 68% backfield carry share
* 2 of 2 carries inside the five-yard line— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) December 2, 2024
Here, he is making a house call in the first quarter. Just look at that patience, vision, and burst to get to the second level:
GOOD AFTERNOON
📺 #TENvsWAS CBS pic.twitter.com/ycmkOYTdWP
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 1, 2024
The Commanders are heading into their bye in Week 14, but they have two nice matchups in the fantasy football playoffs. The first one comes in Week 15 at New Orleans, with the second coming at home against the Falcons in Week 17. Be careful with Robinson in Week 16 vs. the Eagles, however, as he has been somewhat game-script-dependent this season.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In his first game back from injury in Week 12, Evans was limited to just six targets on a 60% snap share. In Week 13, he was fully unleashed back into his typical WR1 role, this time without Chris Godwin on the field. That led to eight catches for a season-high 118 yards on 12 targets. He looked like his old self again.
ARE YOU KIDDING ME, MIKE EVANS?!
📺: #TBvsCAR on FOX pic.twitter.com/p8PvFvlkVQ
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 1, 2024
Evans led all Bucs receivers in Week 13 with a first-read target share of 44% and an air yards share of 63%, per Fantasy Points Data. Those are McConkey and A.J. Brown-type percentages.
And let's talk about the schedule for the Bucs down the stretch. They get the Raiders at home in Tampa in Week 14, the Chargers in Los Angeles in Week 15, the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 16, and the Panthers back in Tampa in Week 17. They either play in warm Florida weather or indoors the rest of the way.
At this rate, Evans is shaping up to be one of those guys on a lot of fantasy championship rosters in 2024.
Other Risers: Isaac Guerendo, Khalil Shakir, Juwan Johnson, Michael Wilson, DJ Moore, Jerry Jeudy
Week 14 Fantasy Football Fallers
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts had been trending down heading into the Falcons' Week 12 bye, but it all came crashing down in Week 13 after the bye. Pitts played on a season-high low 41% of the snaps and didn't catch a single pass on two targets. That was the second time this season he didn't catch a pass in a game.
Some seem to think he's even been quitting on his routes. Take a look at the video and you make the call:
Did Kyle Pitts quit running the route on this play? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/a98w6TN1CQ
— Sportsville (@Sportsville_) December 2, 2024
If the Falcons go back and look at the tape from this weekend and determine Pitts isn't giving it his all, it's possible his reps are pulled back even more than they were in Week 13. At this point, it's extremely hard to trust Pitts, even with the very favorable upcoming schedule (at Minnesota, at Las Vegas, vs. NYG, and at WAS).
If something changes in Week 14 against the Vikings, maybe we can trust him going forward, but until that happens, he's best left on benches. His utilization is (and has been) going in the wrong direction.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hall apparently picked up a knee injury in Week 11 that limited his practice participation ahead of Week 13. That led to a more split backfield against the Seahawks. Hall played 62% of the snaps and registered a 59% RB opportunity share.
Both rookie tailbacks saw several opportunities in Week 13. Braelon Allen had five carries and two targets, while Isaiah Davis' four touches were a season-high for him. One of those touches even led to his first career NFL touchdown, a four-yard pass from Aaron Rodgers.
It's pure speculation here, but Hall appeared to be favoring his knee a bit during the game. With the Jets out of the playoff hunt, there's at least the possibility they continue to scale back his workload moving forward.
Breece Hall -
Looks like he’s favoring his right knee.
He entered this game with “knee soreness” from their Wk11 game. Would be surprised if he continues to play if he’s limping like this into halftime.Note: his prior ACL was to his Left knee. pic.twitter.com/hV86mq56o0
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) December 1, 2024
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco returned from his ankle injury this week. While he was limited to just a 37% snap share, that meant less work and fewer opportunities for Kareem Hunt.
Since taking over as the starter in Kansas City, Hunt had been averaging over 22 opportunities per game. In Week 13, with Pacheco back in the mix, Hunt got just 11 opportunities. His nine touches and 15 total yards were both season lows.
The expectation going forward is that Pacheco's workload will increase while Hunt's workload will decrease. Even if the backfield opportunities were to be split 50/50, there are some very tough run defenses on the Chiefs' upcoming schedule. The Chargers, Browns, Texans, and Steelers are all top-11 in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this season.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson continues to play on every down, but he's losing targets to Davante Adams. That trend continued in Week 13, with Adams being targeted 12 times, compared to Wilson being targeted 10 times. In the last three weeks, Adams has out-targeted Wilson 32-24.
Not only is he losing targets to Adams, but his yards per catch is declining as well. Wilson is being peppered with short and intermediate targets, while Adams is being utilized more down the field. In his last three games, Wilson is averaging just 7.1 yards per catch while Adams is averaging 9.9 yards per catch.
The Jets also look extremely dysfunctional. Aaron Rodgers has all but said he isn't sure if he wants to play in 2025. He's also hinting at the possibility of not playing for the Jets, even if he does return to the NFL next season. Rodgers hasn't topped 200 passing yards in each of his last three games and hasn't eclipsed 250 passing yards since Week 7.
Other Fallers: Tank Dell, Amari Cooper, Rome Odunze, Gus Edwards, Devaughn Vele
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