Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 18)

July 20, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 18 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

Welcome back to my Week 18 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! Today we'll take a look at players like Nico Hoerner, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Luis Robert Jr., and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on. Julio Rodriguez, Rece Hinds, and Lane Thomas were a few good ones from last week who continued to hit over the weekend before the All-Star break.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 7/14

Carlos Correa has the longest current hit streak at 13 games, going 18-for-51 (.353) over that stretch, including five home runs, but we spoke about his streak last week, so we'll skip down to some other notable names.

Nico Hoerner (11)

After finishing last season hitting .283, Nico Hoerner had a slow start to the season, hitting .248 as of the end of June. Hoerner has turned it on July, however, hitting .296 so far in the month and is riding an 11-game hit streak. The downside though is that the 27-year-old stole 43 bases last season and 14 so far in 2024, however, he has yet to steal a base through 13 July games. Fantasy managers need not panic though, as long as he continues to get on base, the steals will come.

Nico Hoerner two-run blast gives the Cubs the lead! pic.twitter.com/5jTJLMijNC

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 27, 2024

Juan Yepez (10)

Juan Yepez had a solid 78-game debut in 2022, hitting .253 and belting 12 home runs, but 2023 didn't go nearly as well. He's getting another shot here in July with the Nationals, and so far he's shown well, collecting a hit in each of his first 10 games since being recalled, going 14-for-37 (.378) with six doubles and a 6:7 BB:K thus far. If he comes out of the break continuing to hit, especially if he starts hitting long balls, he could become a waiver wire pickup in deeper leagues. The 27-year-old is eligible at both 1B and OF on Yahoo, adding to his potential appeal.

juan yepez knows what we love .....

BABY SHARK WITH PARRA after his first hit as a nat 🦈 pic.twitter.com/S4sNydTwpM

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 5, 2024

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 7/14

Since we're only looking back a week, the data we're looking at only includes four games as a result of the All-Star break. Still, there are some intriguing names here that can help fill out a DFS lineup and could also be worthwhile adds in redraft leagues.

Mike Yastrzemski (.533)

Ok, you're probably not running out to add Mike Yastrzemski off the waiver wire, but his last four games before the break were great. The 33-year-old went 8-for-15 (.533) with three doubles, a triple, and a home run. The left-handed hitter also chipped in three runs and three RBI. The veteran gets an enticing three-game set against the Rockies in Colorado starting on Friday, with a particularly juicy matchup against LHP Kyle Freeland on Saturday, who he is 7-for-15 (.467) off of in his career including a double and a home run.

Little League Yaz 🏟️

Mike Yastrzemski triples and scores on a Twins error to win the game in walk-off fashion! pic.twitter.com/4xXFjrsPA2

— SF Giants Update (@Giants__Update) July 14, 2024

Ke'Bryan Hayes (.471)

It might be too soon to declare Ke'Bryan Hayes back, but he's been hitting solid of late. It hasn't just been the last four games. Since June 28, he's 19-for-58 (.328). The good news? The 27-year-old has also stolen three bases since then, giving him eight on the season. His stolen base total last season (10) was a disappointment after stealing 20 bags in 2022, so it is nice to see him running again. The bad news? Despite the solid hitting lately, most have only been singles, collecting just two doubles, no triples, and no home runs since the aforementioned June 28.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is 3-4 today after this double.

LET'S GO.

100.2 MPH exit velocity, .380 xBA pic.twitter.com/rwIfgtdsmq

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) July 14, 2024

The former first-round draft pick had a strong spring  (.412) and was a multi-hit machine to begin the season, so if he can return to some semblance of that, we might be able to welcome him back into our lineups. Hayes is available in almost 70% of leagues for managers looking for a hot bat at the hot corner (as long as power isn't a requirement).

Highest ISO in Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, games through 7/14

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Michael Toglia (1.071)

I love it when a plan comes together! Michael Toglia was mentioned as an xSLG underachiever in my Week 16 Breakout Watch article. I'm not sure we expected this kind of outburst though. Just before the break, the 25-year-old hit five home runs in four games, including a three-homer game. He also had one a few games prior, giving him six homers in eight games. The former first-rounder now has 16 on the season, so managers in need of power could consider adding him in redraft leagues, just know it might cost you some batting average (.197) and he's still only collected 34 RBI despite the HR total.

Michael Toglia goes deep for his THIRD home run today! pic.twitter.com/v0I9ogxrOl

— MLB (@MLB) July 14, 2024

Honorable Mention: Lawrence Butler (.857)

Lawrence Butler had a Toglia-like surge just before the break, also having a three-homer game and four home runs in a three-game span. He too is hitting near the Mendoza Line (.211), however, so buyer beware.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data as of 7/14

Luis Robert Jr. (3)

You don't need me to tell you about Luis Robert Jr.'s offensive prowess, even though the offensive production hasn't been as hoped this season, but after stealing a career-high 20 stolen bases last season, it was painful for fantasy managers to see him come into July with only three. The Cuban stole three bases just before the break in a two-game span; however, he's been running since the calendar flipped to July. Eight of the 26-year-old's 11 steals have come in July, so hopefully this is something we see continuing in the second half, especially if some of the other offensive numbers aren't there.

Honorable mention: Xavier Edwards (3)

xBA Underachiever

Data through 7/14, minimum 200 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Keibert Ruiz (.220 vs. .270)

Keibert Ruiz was viewed as a potential sleeper pick at catcher this season after batting .260 with 18 home runs last season, but so far it has not come to fruition. The catcher is hitting .220 with six homers over 70 games. The low average has persisted despite a strong Contact% of 87.7% and a low 11.3% K%. A side-by-side comparison of his Baseball Savant page (left side) and that of Luis Arraez (right side) shows some striking similarities.

I'm not saying Ruiz is Arraez or even close to him, but it's fair to forecast a batting average north of .220 by season's end. The 25-year-old has already started to show signs of a turnaround as well, having come into July slashing .203/.243/.295 on the season, but for July he is slashing .302/.318/.488 with two doubles, two home runs, eight RBI, and just one strikeout in 11 games (43 AB).

Honorable mention: Christopher Morel (.202 vs. .248)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 7/14, minimum 200 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Connor Wong (.307 vs. .253)

Connor Wong's name has shown up in this section before but he continued to hit. That is, until July. Wong came into July on a 15-game hit streak, batting .327, and added two games to the streak at the beginning of the month, finishing with a 17-game hit streak. Since July 4, however, the backstop is 4-for-26 (.154) with just one extra-base hit (1 HR) and has seen his batting average drop to .307. While that is still good, it'll be interesting to see how far it drops. His Contact% is 75.0% compared to last year's 69.9% and his chase rate has gone from 39.2% to 31.4%, so he still might wind up with a respectable BA.

Also: Josh Smith (.293 vs. .240)

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