Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 11)

May 31, 2024

Jarod's fantasy baseball breakout hitters watch list, underachievers, and overachievers for Week 11 (2024), including hit streak leaders, ISO leaders, and more.

We're going to take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of some meaningful trends that can be revealing in some form or another. Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell.

Checking in on who's hot (or not) can bring to light some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

(data through 5/30)   

Masyn Winn (18)

Anthony Volpe goes hitless Sunday night, ending his hit streak and providing us with a new leader that you may not have realized was on fire. Masyn Winn is the new leader at 18 games and it hasn't been all singles. The 22-year-old has six doubles and two home runs during this streak. Now slashing .308/.358/.440 on the season, the former second-round draft pick is available in almost 80% of leagues, so go scoop him up while you can.

Kevin Pillar (12)

I've touched on Kevin Pillar in this article before, so I'm not going to do a deep dive, but I will point out that he's now got a 12-game hit streak going where he's batting .467 during the streak. He's a fine fill-in for someone needing an outfielder (hello, Ronald Acuna Jr. owners). He's sure to cool off, but for now, ride the wave! He's available in 64% of Yahoo leagues.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/29) 

Check out the names on this list as there are some interesting ones for sure that could help in both season-long and DFS, but we'll discuss the top two names in depth below.

Luis Rengifo (.550)

Luis Rengifo was highlighted in last week's article, mentioning that he's having a career year in terms of on-base percentage which has provided him additional stolen-base opportunities. While he didn't steal any bases this past week, he's been on a tear at the plate and eventually that will translate into more steals. The switch-hitter has six multi-hit games in his last eight, hitting .455 over that stretch and .550 over the past week (five games). The 27-year-old is a Swiss Army knife when it comes to fantasy, as he's eligible at 2B, SS, 3B, and OF in Yahoo leagues.

USDA Prime Geef 👌#RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/3pgr1Oyiog

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) May 22, 2024

Keibert Ruiz (.526)

Keibert Ruiz was coming off a solid 2023 in which he belted 17 home runs and made contact at a superb rate (87.0%), which helped him to a decent .260 average. The backstop got off to a poor start in 2024, though, batting just .143 over the first month of the season. His Contact% is even better so far this season (88.3%), so the average was bound to come around.

ball is mindful of why it was invited to section 140 pic.twitter.com/VKjWPYLXmG

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) May 25, 2024

Ruiz has picked it up in May, hitting .256 during the month, but even more so lately, hitting .526 over the last week (six games) including a pair of doubles and a home run. The 25-year-old even stole a base this past week after stealing one all last season. The switch-hitter is available in over 70% of Yahoo leagues for managers hurting at the catcher position.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

(minimum 13 AB, games through 5/29)

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Corey Seager (.833)

Corey Seager was also mentioned in last week's article as an SLG underachiever, meaning his actual slugging percentage was well below his expected slugging percentage. We take a look at that to see who could begin to outperform. Well, Seager did that in a big way over the past week. Granted, he had just six hits over the past week (6-for-18, .333 over five games), but five of those six hits were home runs, giving him an out-of-this-world ISO of .833.

8 homers in his last 8 games

Corey Seager is on another level 🤯 pic.twitter.com/FPU92wNIWb

— MLB (@MLB) May 29, 2024

The four-time All-Star's actual SLG still trails his xSLG by a wide margin, but it'd be hard to stay this hot. With a BA still 30 points lower than his xBA, however, he could begin to rack up the hits as he probably won't finish as a .260 hitter by season's end.

Matt Vierling (.600)

Matt Vierling began the season with a solid average, hitting .268 over the first month of the season, but with just six XBH in 82 AB. In May, however, the 27-year-old is batting .312 with 10 XBH in 77 AB. Four of his seven total HRs came within his last three games, and he's hitting the long balls with runners on base, collecting 10 RBI over the last week alone (28 on the year). The former fifth-round draft pick has scored 22 times in 2024 and is now hitting leadoff, which should help boost that number. He's owned in just 30% of Yahoo leagues for managers looking for a hot bat and is eligible at both 3B and OF.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

(data as of 5/29) 

Brenton Doyle (5)

After stealing just four bases over his first 36 games, Brenton Doyle has stolen 10 bases over his last 17 games, with five of those coming over the past week alone (seven games). Doyle was caught stealing and also picked off once on Wednesday, so if not for that, his total could be even higher. The 26-year-old has seen his average drop from .330 to .271 since April 25, but he's been able to continue to get on base due to his patience at the plate, having walked 14 times in his last 16 games. As long as he can keep getting on base, he'll keep stealing bases. Doyle is still available in over 30% of Yahoo leagues.

Brenton Doyle goes DEEP and the Rockies are rolling pic.twitter.com/GAgBZOLLtL

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 9, 2024

xSLG Underachievers

(data through 5/29, minimum 100 AB)

Normally we look at xBA here, but many of those same names still appear on that list, so we'll look at xSLG this week and revisit xBA another time. Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current slugging percentage and their expected slugging percentage, or xSLG. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain. Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xSLG throughout their career, so regression to the xSLG may not happen.

Dansby Swanson (.318 vs. .432)

Dansby Swanson has had a bit of a rough go of it to begin the season, with some underperformance combined with an IL stint resulting in a batting average of .204 and slugging percentage of .318. He's a career .251 hitter and has a career slugging percentage of .412. Perhaps the knee injury that put him on the IL is somewhat to blame, but the 30-year-old still has a 10.1% Barrel% and his BABIP is .267 (.309 career BABIP), so there are some reasons to think he should be getting more extra-base hits.

A career-low Contact% and career-high SwStr% might be the counterargument, but only time will tell. While he's been somewhat underwhelming for a No. 1 overall pick in terms of offense, that kind of pedigree tells me that he's going to rebound closer to career norms.

Vinnie Pasquantino (.388 vs. .490)

Vinnie Pasquantino was expected to hit for more power after hitting 28 home runs in 2022 between Triple-A and the majors. Although he missed a lot of time last season, the lefty was able to pop nine home runs in 61 games (231 AB, ~25 AB/HR). This season, he's got five HRs through 53 games (183 AB, ~37 AB/HR).

The 26-year-old is barreling the ball even more than last season (10.1% vs. 7.4%). Mix that with an increase in Contact% and hard-hit%, plus a reduction in chase rate and SwStr%, and there's reason to believe he's going to start seeing more extra-base hits. A year-over-year decrease in average launch angle of more than three degrees is what needs improvement.

(Update: Pasquatch went deep in Thursday's game)

xSLG Overachievers

(data through 5/29, minimum 100 AB)

We'll touch on two hitters below who will eventually cool off. In this case, the SLG is much higher than the xSLG, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well, so don't expect them to go ice-cold. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Ezequiel Tovar (.463 vs. .379)

While Ezequiel Tovar may be the answer for Colorado in the long-term at shortstop and he develops into an offensive hitter that deserves a seven-year, $63.5 million contract, right now it seems he's a little out over his skis. He's making the least contact of his career, striking out the most he ever has and chasing at an alarming rate, and yet he's hitting a solid .286 with a .463 SLG. The swollen .395 BABIP could have something to do with it, but whatever the reason, it appears the 22-year-old is due for some regression.

We stand corrected. Witness the second-longest home run of the career of #Rockies SS Ezequiel Tovar -- 443 feet. His longest was 447, May 2, 2023 at Coors Field. pic.twitter.com/jm2xJlnSRe

— Thomas Harding (@harding_at_mlb) May 22, 2024

Daulton Varsho (.438 vs. .333)

This one I can't put my finger on, as he's got a lot of different numbers as compared to Tovar. He's making decent contact (79.3%), chasing less, has a lower SwStr% compared to last season, and barreling about the same as last year. The 27-year-old's BABIP is a low .224 (career .262) to boot. His average launch angle has increased dramatically (+6.8 degrees), but all of this points to someone who should be hitting for power, and he is. Maybe some regression is due, but so far this looks like a continuation of his power breakout after hitting 27 and 20 home runs in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

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