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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 3 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points - expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I missed on both my nine and 10-point picks last week, so I sank toward the bottom of the standings in the RotoBaller Reader's Group. We had two entries that got 47 points this week (Rakija Brown and Pick-and-Morty). Three more entries hit 45 points, so we have a little pack starting to separate at the top.
Rakija Brown has 93 points in the first two weeks to lead the group. That is in the top 99.9% of picks in the entire contest! Cliff316 is in second place with 88 points. Pick-and-Morty and Niceville War Eagle are tied for third with 86 points. bdean811 rounds out the top five with 85 points.
11 more entries have at least 80 points, and nine more have at least 75. One big week can still vault you up the standings in a hurry.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This week looks a little tougher with some of the expected stronger teams struggling in the first two weeks of the season.
(1) Southern Mississippi over Appalachian State
Southern Miss gets its first win of the Charles Huff era, and its first win in 364 days with a 38-20 victory against Jackson State.
The Golden Eagles begin conference play next week when they host App State. #SMTTT @wdam https://t.co/ZhQrWW1a3R
— Scott Kirk (@ScottKirkTV) September 7, 2025
After Kent State beat Merrimack in Week 1, Southern Miss was tagged with the longest losing streak in FBS at 11 games. That went away last week when the Eagles topped Jackson State.
Charles Huff brought most of his defense from Marshall, the reigning Sun Belt Champions, with him to Hattiesburg. That has been the strength of the team. Appalachian State struggled against Lindenwood last week, hanging on for a seven-point win. I believe in the Southern Miss defense more than the App State offense right now.
(2) Texas A&M over Notre Dame
This is me trying to point steal again. The Irish are the favorites in the books (-240) and the public (75%), but it feels like people are sleeping on the Aggies this year. Le'Veon Moss didn't even play against UTSA, and the Aggies took them out. The offense looked even better with Moss last week.
There is no returning SEC QB who has progressed more than Marcel Reed pic.twitter.com/HgJ3wuwnD5
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 7, 2025
Almost no one is talking about how well Marcel Reed has run this offense. Both Utah State and UTSA are in the upper tier of Group of 5 teams. Notre Dame played a really good game against Miami, but I feel like A&M's offense is more explosive. Can they stop it?
(3) Georgia Tech over Clemson
This one is interesting because Vegas (-300) and the public (76%) greatly differ from ESPN's FPI rankings. In-season, ESPN's FPI metric has been one of the better ones publicly available that is not behind a paywall.
Georgia Tech is at home, so I'm surprised that Vegas is that heavily behind Clemson, especially after the Tigers trailed Troy 16-0 in the second quarter at home last week. With FPI supporting one of my upset specials this week, I'm going to try to steal a couple more points, as I missed a lot of high ones last week, and I need to catch back up in the standings.
(4) Tennessee over Georgia
If this turns into a scoring contest, Georgia is in trouble. The Bulldogs have held their two opponents to a combined 13 points. Austin Peay took out an FBS school (Middle Tennessee State), but Marshall lost to a first-year FBS school, Missouri State.
Tennessee didn't look great against Syracuse, but the offense looked good. Joey Aguilar is a perfect fit in this offense. Chris Brazzell II has played well. Tennessee has opted for a two-back system (Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop) to replace Dylan Sampson with great success.
This is another spot where the public is very heavy on Georgia (73%) in a road game against a ranked team. I'm not convinced that the Bulldogs are that much better than the rest of the SEC anymore. I also feel that many publications feel that Tennessee took a big step back, losing Nico Iamaleava. They did not. The Vols are better off and are playing like it.
(5) Minnesota over California
The public is nearly split on this one (52% Cal, 48% Minnesota), and I get it. Even FPI is close on this one (52.6% Minnesota). Both teams have first-year starters. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has arguably been the most exciting freshman quarterback of the season so far.
Cal fans find out this week if Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is truly elite as a true freshman - taking on an incredibly tough Minnesota defense.
The Golden Gophers defense is No. 3 in these Defensive Ratings. https://t.co/xZZ9lcIfXd
— Thomas Christopher (@TommyCFB) September 8, 2025
What has me leaning towards Minnesota is the RB room of the Gophers. Darius Taylor is a load and is very well rested from Minnesota's easier wins over Buffalo and Northwestern State. I like Cal more than I thought I would this year, but it's going to be difficult for Sagapolutele to have a strong game against this disciplined defense.
(6) South Carolina over Vanderbilt
This one makes me nervous. The Commodores got smacked by South Carolina last year, but the Gamecock defense was better in 2024 than it has been early on. I still feel like South Carolina takes this at home, but it should be a close game. Closer than the 90% that the public is currently riding the Gamecocks at.
(7) Pittsburgh over West Virginia
I'm not going to pile on the Mountaineers for losing to Ohio. It was a road game against a tough Group of 5 team, and they played the last 40 minutes without star RB Jaheim White. This iteration of the Backyard Brawl looks like a cakewalk for Pitt, but if we've learned anything from this century-long rivalry, it's that records mean little and looks mean nothing.
If I go down, most are going with me. 93% of the pickers are on Pitt with me. It's easy to see why. Pitt looks like the far better team. Eli Holstein has enough positives (eight touchdown passes) to offset his mistakes. Nicco Marchiol has been a walking mistake for West Virginia so far.
I expect a closer game than Vegas does, but I find it hard to believe that West Virginia wins outright, especially if White remains out for this game.
UPDATE: Jaheim White is OUT. I may move this up.
(8) North Texas over Washington State
Once again, the FPI rankings favor the home team. North Texas is 59.4% to win based on FPI. The public is only 30% on the Mean Green.
The North Texas defense is still a bit of a sore spot, but Drew Mestemaker has been outstanding in the first two games. North Texas has brought in some good quarterbacks to Denton, but Mestemaker may be the best. He doesn't make mistakes.
Mestemaker, in 3 college starts, has amassed over 1,000 yards passing.#GoMeanGreen #GMG #UNTouchable
— Mean Green Moniker (@MGMoniker) September 8, 2025
Given the heat and humidity in Denton in September, this is going to be a tough one for the Cougars on the road. The players who made Wazzu exciting are off to other pastures this year. This feels like a game where North Texas can make a statement.
(9) Memphis over Troy
Troy did well against Clemson for a half. Vegas isn't buying it (+170) and I'm not either. Memphis is the far better team and shouldn't have much trouble here.
(10) Tulane over Duke
Tulane vs Duke: what’s at stake 👇
- Tulane will look for another P4 victory on their home field to build their CFP resume
- Duke QB Darian Mensah will attempt to spoil Tulane’s playoff hopes for a second straight year
— Tampering University (@sohowistexas) September 8, 2025
There is a storyline here, but no real rivalry. Tulane hasn't missed a step despite losing Makhi Hughes to Oregon and Darian Mensah to Duke. Mensah makes a homecoming in Week 3 this year with BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff taking Mensah's spot for Tulane.
It's easy to pile on Duke after the loss to Illinois. The Illini dominated the game, but Illinois didn't force all of the drops from Duke receivers. Mensah needs more help, and he's not going to get it in a week.
