RADIO
Ok I’ll admit it… I’m totally bought into the hype surrounding the Mile-High City’s basketball team. They have an extremely talented youth, their own unicorn, and a thrilling offense. In my heart, they’re vying for the best kind of nuggets out there (Sorry McDonald's).
Denver is currently 6th place in the Western Conference with a 32-26 record, only one game back from 5th place Oklahoma City. They’ve held a 10-5 record over their past 15 games. Their starting lineup has been lights out on offense. Following Nikola Jokic’s record speed triple double, they went into the All-Star Break finishing with, arguably, the most impressive showcase game. The Nuggets have the 7th best offensive rating in the league at 108.2, but they have lackluster defense (22nd in the league at 107.8). Defense is their issue, but I’ll talk about how this will be mended later.
Usually, I focus on single players and their impact in the realm of fantasy basketball, but today I will be focusing on the strengths of a whole team and how that allows its players to produce better stats. I will start with a broader overview of the team and end with important snippets of the important players on the Nuggets. Let’s begin!
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Dynamic Denver
Denver has a bright future in the NBA and they should continually have a foothold in the Western Conference playoff teams given their talent. It’s a near travesty that basketball is not more appreciated there. In 2017, Denver had the lowest total attendance out of all the teams in the league. Let me tell you why they are worth watching, and, more importantly, why you should be grabbing their players to own on your fantasy team.
Besides their great offense, they are also 2nd in the league for total offensive rebounds per game [11.2]. They’re right behind Oklahoma City, led by Steven Adams, who’s been a monster on the offensive glass this season. They are also 4th place in assists per game [24.4], and they are reminiscent of a pass-happy, deep shooting Golden State offense. Having good offensive rebounding is a plus for fantasy because of the second chance opportunities to produce. Additionally, being strong in assists allows the stats to spread out across the team. Denver is also not a strong isolation offense, and that doesn’t allow stats to stagnantly accumulate on a single star player. They are delivering their best offense through off screen plays. Running pick and roll with a big man who can drop off the ball to cutters makes for amazing plays. Denver is 2nd in the league for points per possession off screens [1.13] and they are 1st in effective field goal percentage for the same type of offense [58.5%]. Additionally, they are the 5th place team in the league for points off drives.
They are a lot of aspects to be pleased with in Denver, however, the defense has left fans wanting… Coach Mike Malone has been fiddling around with lineups to cover up his team’s defensive deficiencies. Jokic is not a shot blocking, stalwart defender. He has been trying to play Jokic at the 4 and playing Mason Plumlee at center as a traditional center to improve defense. But this combo has looked very unnatural playing together. Plumlee has been hurt recently, and when the Nuggets big free agent pick-up, Paul Millsap returns from injury to take the starting 4 spot, the defense should shore up. The projected starting lineup should be the following five players: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Millsap, and Jokic. Let’s take a closer glimpse at these players who might be overlooked due to where they play.
This has been a breakout sophomore season for the Blue Arrow. The Nuggets’ starting point guard has been ranked 68th over the season for fantasy. His value comes from his 30.3 minutes per game, 2 threes per game on high point value creation, 0.9 steals per game, and his 91.4% free throwing shooting on 2.9 free throw attempts per game. Murray needs to be owned; he has been ramping up over the season, and he is one of the most promising young point guards in the league.
The beloved vet from Dallas was moved to Denver for backup point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, and Harris has sneaky low end value being owned in 0% of leagues. In his three games for Denver, he has per-game averages of 20.4 minutes, 1.3 threes, 1 steal, low turnovers, and strong free throw value on two attempts per game. He has much surer value than in Dallas for fantasy, and in 14-16 team leagues, he could be a sneaky add.
Gary wins the annual award for “criminally underrated but not actually underrated” player. Any basketball fan should know the awesome 3&D value that Gary brings. He’s been ranked 33rd over the fantasy season with 34.9 minutes per game, 17.5 points on 13.6 field goal attempts per game, 2.4 threes, and 1.8 steals!!! He holds incredible value, but he’ll be hard to pry from owners’ hands (though he is apparently only 85% owned on Yahoo, so maybe you can pick him up as a free agent?)
Barton has been a frustrating own in the past for his streaky shooting, but he’s having his best fantasy season yet at rank 63 over the season. With Danilo Gallinari’s departure, Barton took over the starting small forward role, and he has been filling the stat sheet. Per-game averages of 32.4 minutes, 14.7 points on 12.3 attempts, 4.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.8 threes, 1.1 steals, and 0.6 blocks. Barton is 78% owned in all leagues, but he could be a buy low candidate after a poor shooting night that will inevitably turn up.
Chandler starts at the power forward spot most often, and he is not a fantasy friendly player, even despite the minutes he gets. His streaky shooting usually ends up hurting more than helping. He will be negatively impacted by Millsap’s return as he will go back to splitting minutes at the 3 with Barton. This team should see drastic improvements with Chandler playing less time.
Now we get into the most interesting bits. On November 19th , Millsap exited the game with a left wrist sprain. He ‘s supposed to return, at latest, on March 7th. That date should be the last regular week before playoffs for regular head to head leagues. His return means major minutes reductions for Trey Lyles, Kenneth Faried, and Mason Plumlee. Funnily enough, there have been exactly 224 minutes played together for the intended starting lineup AND the starting lineup since Millsap has been hurt. But the defensive rating with Millsap playing is 100.5 compared to 115.1 with Chandler in Millsap’s spot. The net rating with Millsap is 12.0 compared to 5.7. There is a lot of potential for greatness with Millsap looming on the horizon. Millsap should make any leagues with IL spots drool with his fantasy expectations, averaging ranks of 45, 10, 15, and 20 over the past four seasons.
All hail the Joker! The 23 year old shattered records for the fastest triple double in NBA history while outshining fellow unicorn Giannis Antetokounmpo with a 30/15/17 game. This man embodies Denver hype. His per-game averages are 31.4 minutes, 16.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.3 threes, 1.1 steals, and 0.8 blocks. He is definitely a first round pick for any league drafts next season.
Denver and their enormous potential has created great players to utilized in fantasy matchups, so take advantage of your newly gained knowledge of the flashy Nuggets squad.
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