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Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 4

T.J. Hockenson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

This is the fourth week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 4, we saw stat lines such as the New York Giants wide receiver room combining for eight targets, the Detroit Lions tight end room combining for 179 receiving yards, and the Kansas City Chiefs running back room combining for 32 carries.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

Denver Broncos Running Backs

Nathaniel Hackett & Justin Outten

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2021 Broncos 24.29 109.59 0.71 4.29 5.47 32.41 0.29
Nathaniel Hackett Prior (117 Games) 24.44 104.83 0.68 5.86 7.73 46.41 0.26
Broncos RBs vs. Las Vegas Raiders 16 56 0 2 5 8 0

The Denver Broncos running back room combined for just 16 carries, 56 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, two receptions, five targets, eight receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders. After this game, the Denver Broncos running back room has totaled 87 carries (21.75 per game), 363 rushing yards (90.75 per game), one rushing touchdown (0.25 per game), 26 receptions (6.5 per game), 37 targets (9.25 per game), 136 receiving yards (34 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season.

It's going to be tougher for this group to perform going forward with the injury to Javonte Williams, but even with that, there should be at least some bounce-back for this group ahead – especially in the touchdowns department.

Fantasy players this impacts: Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Mike Boone 

 

Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers

Arthur Smith

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2021 Falcons 9.35 14.71 102.12 0.53
Arthur Smith Prior (49 Games) 10.47 15.82 141.35 0.92
Falcons WRs vs. Cleveland Browns 4 11 72 0

The Atlanta Falcons' wide receiver room was barely utilized in the win over the Cleveland Browns as they combined for four receptions on 11 targets for 72 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this performance, this group has totaled 34 receptions (8.5 per game) on 53 targets (13.25 per game) for 502 receiving yards (125.5 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.75 per game) on the season.

Arthur Smith's wide receiver room historically gets below-average usage relative to other play-callers, but Sunday's performance was on the lower end even for him. Expect Drake London to bounce back next week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Fantasy players this impacts: Drake London, Olamide Zaccheaus, Calvin Ridley, Damiere Byrd, Bryan Edwards, KhaDarel Hodge

 

Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends

Arthur Smith

TE Rec. TE Tgts TE Rec. Yds TE Rec. TD
2021 Falcons 6.35 9.29 79.71 0.29
Arthur Smith Prior (49 Games) 5.67 8.22 66.73 0.49
Falcons TEs vs. Cleveland Browns 2 5 47 0

Besides the Atlanta Falcons wide receiver room, the team's tight end room also was barely utilized in the win over the Cleveland Browns as they combined for two receptions on five targets for 47 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 15 receptions (3.75 per game) on 29 targets (7.25 per game) for 210 receiving yards (52.5 per game) and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season.

Comparing these numbers to Arthur Smith's career tight end room averages, it's clear that there should be a little bounce-back for this group but it's still not going to be enough to have Kyle Pitts live up to his preseason average draft position (ADP). If you have Kyle Pitts you are holding and hoping that the positive regression will be enough to make him a mid-tier TE1.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Pitts, Parker Hesse, Anthony Firkser

 

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Brian Daboll & Mike Kafka

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2021 Giants 10.59 19.06 127.24 0.29
Brian Daboll Prior (129 Games) 11.72 20.15 147.77 0.79
Giants WRs vs. Chicago Bears 3 8 25 0

In the victory over the Chicago Bears, the New York Giants wide receiver room combined for three receptions on eight targets for 25 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has totaled 40 receptions (10 per game) on 66 targets (16.5 per game) for 409 receiving yards (102.25 per game) and one receiving touchdown (0.25 per game).

While the Giants wide receiver room certainly isn't as talented as the 2021 Buffalo Bills wide receiver room that Brian Daboll worked with a year ago, they should see their averages rise into somewhere between Daboll's career averages and the 2021 New York Giants wide receiver room's averages. Because of this, in deeper leagues, players like Wan'Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, and Richie James may be worth buying into at their current prices.

Fantasy players this impacts: Richie James, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Wan'Dale Robinson, David Sills

 

Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers

Matt Rhule & Ben McAdoo

WR Rec. WR Tgts WR Rec. Yds WR Rec. TD
2021 Panthers 11.53 20.88 132.76 0.59
Matt Rhule Prior (33 Games) 13.55 22 168.15 0.61
Ben McAdoo Prior (60 Games) 13.18 22.12 171.42 1.23
Panthers WRs vs. Arizona Cardinals 9 18 76 0

The Carolina Panthers wide receiver room combined for nine receptions on 18 targets for 76 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals. After this game, this group has totaled 31 receptions (7.75 per game) on 66 targets (16.5 per game) for 438 receiving yards (109.5 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.75 per game) on the season. These numbers are all clearly lower than the averages we've become accustomed to seeing from a Matt Rhule or Ben McAdoo wide receiver room, and it suggests that brighter days are ahead for D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson in fantasy.

Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson, Laviska Shenault Jr., Shi Smith

 

Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends

Greg Roman

TE Rec. TE Tgts TE Rec. Yds TE Rec. TD
2021 Ravens 6.94 10.06 84.47 0.53
Greg Roman Prior (131 Games) 4.91 7.59 60.78 0.51
Ravens TEs vs. Buffalo Bills 2 5 15 0

The Baltimore Ravens tight end room combined for two receptions on five targets for 15 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 31 receptions (7.75 per game) on 49 targets (12.25 per game) for 319 receiving yards (79.75 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (one per game).

The Ravens' tight ends were due for a subpar game after their hot start to the 2022 season and after Sunday's disappointing game their averages are more in line with the per-game expectations most had set for this group. There's not really a buy-low opportunity here because of the group's already high season averages but if you have Mark Andrews on your fantasy team you should feel confident in a bounce-back week next week.

Fantasy players this impacts: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Josh Oliver

 

 

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs

Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy

RB Carries RB Rush Yds RB Rush TD RB Rec. RB Tgts RB Rec. Yds RB Rec. TD
2021 Chiefs 19.18 81.94 0.71 5.12 6.41 46.65 0.29
Andy Reid Prior (369 Games) 19.93 87.18 0.64 4.95 6.73 42.83 0.28
Eric Bieniemy Prior (65 Games) 19.17 82.78 0.71 4.98 6.38 43.52 0.35
Chiefs RBs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32 154 1 2 3 3 1

In the Sunday night game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Kansas City Chiefs running back room combined for 32 carries, 154 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions, three targets, three receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. On the season this group has now totaled 86 carries (21.5 per game), 401 rushing yards (100.25 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.75 per game), 19 receptions (4.75 per game), 22 targets (5.5 per game), 149 receiving yards (37.25 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (one per game).

These numbers are well above the averages we've seen from Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy's running back rooms in the past and suggests that regression will be coming for this group in the future. If you can manage to sell high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire's early season performance, now would be the time to do so.

Fantasy players this impacts: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco

 

Detroit Lions Tight Ends

Dan Campbell & Ben Johnson

TE Rec. TE Tgts TE Rec. Yds TE Rec. TD
2021 Lions 4.71 6.65 45.71 0.35
Dan Campbell Prior (29 Games) 4.17 6.17 38.62 0.34
Lions TEs vs. Seahawks 8 12 179 2

The Detroit Lions' tight end room went off against the Seattle Seahawks this past Sunday as they combined for eight receptions on 12 targets for 179 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 19 receptions (4.75 per game) on 31 targets (7.75 per game) for 286 receiving yards (71.5 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.75 per game) on the season.

Hockenson is a good tight end, but it was the perfect storm for him to have a big game with Amon-Ra St. Brown, D'Andre Swift, and D.J. Chark all out against a weak Seattle Seahawks passing defense. Expect Hockenson to come back down to Earth next week against the New England Patriots.

Fantasy players this impacts: T.J. Hockenson and Brock Wright

 



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