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Buy or Sell: Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 21


Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early-season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.

If you need a win in H2H or a particular category filled in rotisserie, buy or sell what you must to get to where you need.  The home stretch is dark and full of terrors. Injured and underperforming players can be let go if they are taking up a roster spot that could be filled by someone much more productive. Players mentioned in this piece, and coming editions as we wind the season down, are more "add/drop" candidates rather than "buy/sells" given that trade deadlines are either passed or passing. Evaluate wisely.

Anyway, these buys and sells are worth noting for this upcoming week. Best of luck.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Undervalued Players - Week 21

 

Freddy Galvis - SS, CIN

32% owned

Galvis has had an underrated season thus far. His accomplishments in Toronto went mostly unnoticed because of how poor their offense was all season along with the fact that Galvis is an unreliable producer historically. He's presented *some* fantasy value throughout the years but never much to write home about.

Now, in Cincinnati, Galvis is surrounded by a more potent lineup (albeit just average) and plays in an even more favorable hitting park. The lack of DH is a bit of a hit to any player's value moving from the AL to NL, however, that is offset by the other factors. Galvis could be a reliable shortstop for anyone in need of a replacement going forward, and could even be an upgrade for some.

 

Matt Beaty - UTIL, LAD

2% owned

Matt Beaty came into the year as an unknown commodity and has made a name for himself with consistent hitting. Beaty is an intriguing talent who is viable in most deeper formats. He walks almost as much as he strikes out and he's shown a bit of pop throughout the year with his 24 extra-base hits in fewer than 200 plate appearances. Beaty's minor league numbers coincide with what he's done thus far and as long as he's hitting, he should remain in the lineup, mostly against lefties.

Given the potential issues with Kike Hernandez's return, Beaty is not viable in shallower leagues but should be owned in roto and points formats. His multi-positional eligibility is a bonus for any owners in need of filling corner IF or OF spots.

 

Adrian Houser - SP, MIL

12% owned

Adrian Houser has come out of nowhere and presented himself as a legitimate option to add. He's viable as a streamer for his next two matchups, both of which are against St. Louis (one home, one away). Afterward, the schedule is rough with the Astros and Cubs, unless a start gets pushed, then he'll face the Marlins. Houser's ERA and xFIP are very close and his SIERA is below four as well. He's striking out more than a batter per inning and not getting any BABIP luck to boost him.

Houser is worth grabbing and holding for a bit, with hopes that he can get pushed one day back over the next two weeks then it's smooth sailing until the last week of the season. Things look legit, but if it gets choppy, jump ship.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 21

 

Jeff Samardzija - SP, SF

62% owned

Samardzija's had a fantastic season thus far. The juiced ball has not seemed to affect his surface numbers, but the decline in his peripherals should not go unnoticed. Shark is outperforming his xFIP and SIERA by more than a run, and his schedule to end the year is pretty rough. Over the next few weeks, he has to face the Cubs in Chicago, Dodgers in LA and Red Sox in Boston, a brutal stretch that could wreck what's been a magnificent season thus far.

Luckily, he has the safety net of ATT Park to rely on to suppress runs for a handful of his other starts. Shark is a big regression candidate for the last month of the year and can potentially be dropped in shallower H2H leagues.

 

Daniel Vogelbach - 1B/DH, SEA

44% owned

Vogelbach's hot start to the year has been significantly slowed down with the unraveling of the Mariners. Voggy looked like the second coming of Frank Thomas before regression hit, and now he's looking like a poor man's Kyle Schwarber. He's still decent in OBP leagues due to his 16 percent walk rate, but he is still home run or bust when it comes to hitting the ball.

With the extremely poor team context and unfavorable home park, it is probably best to cut Vogelbach loose to create a streaming spot or for for a hot bat.

 

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