Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Wild Card Round

January 5, 2020

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for he Wild Card Round. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi RotoBallers, and thanks for joining me here for the NFL Playoffs! Wild Card Weekend offers us a Thanksgiving-Day-like slate of four games spread over Saturday and Sunday. While this obviously limits our choices to a degree, it's a big enough slate that we can still find some ways to make our rosters unique. We'll dive into some of those opportunities in this week's article.

These DraftKings DFS lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are some great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Wild Card Weekend.

Good luck with your Wild Card Round DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Wild Card Round Picks

Drew Brees - MIN @ NO ($6,600)

After missing a large chunk of the season with a thumb injury, Drew Brees closed out the regular season on a tear, averaging nearly 30-DK points per game over New Orleans' last four. Brees and this Saints offense are currently projected to score just over 28 points at home in the Dome this week against a Vikings Defense that has failed to live up to expectations this year. Minnesota doesn't grade out horribly statistically, but this is no longer a matchup to shy away from. I expect Brees to stay hot in this one and he has the best floor/ceiling combination of any QB on the slate.

Josh Allen - BUF @ HOU ($6,500)

It's kinda hard to click Josh Allen's name at $6.5k when you have Deshaun Watson sitting right there at $6.4k. I expect most folks won't hesitate in siding with Watson, which makes Allen an intriguing pivot on this short slate. We haven't seen Allen's upside nearly as often this season due to his new, more conservative approach. However, this matchup against Houston lends itself to what Allen does best...throw the ball deep and run with the football. The Texans have allowed 5.66 yards per carry to opposing QBs, the second-highest average in the NFL. Houston has also struggled mightily in the secondary with injuries and poor play making them susceptible through the air, and has resulted in a ranking of 30th in the league in DK points allowed to the QB position.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Wild Card Round Picks

Derrick Henry - TEN @ NE ($8,200)

This is a tough slate for running backs, with injury questions, bad matchups, and committee situations clouding the position. In the absence of a clear slam-dunk situation, I like to bet on volume and talent. I have no doubt about Derrick Henry's talent and the Titans have proven themselves willing to give him the volume. That said, the matchup is brutal, as New England has relinquished the fewest DK points in the NFL and just one rushing TD to opposing RBs this year. Henry is purely a "expect volume & bet on talent" play here, but we know that he has slate-breaking ability.

Devin Singletary - BUF @ HOU ($6,000)

There are better RBs on this slate, but Buffalo's Devin Singletary may well have the best pure matchup. With just four games this weekend, I keep finding myself drawn to a Texans defensive unit that I feel is the weakest on the slate. We can utilize the Bills passing attack (which you can find mentioned throughout this article) or take aim with Singletary, a player that has morped into the Bills clear-cut top option in the backfield. He'll square off against a Texans run defense that is allowing a healthy 4.61 yards per carry to opposing backs.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Wild Card Round Picks

Michael Thomas - MIN @ NO ($9,300)

While we want to be a bit contrarian on a slate of this size, there are some spots where we must be willing to swallow the chalk. Michael Thomas will be popular, but he stands head and shoulders above the other receivers on this slate. Thomas is basically matchup proof due to more or less being used as an extension of the Saints' running game, which resulted in him leading the league in total targets and average targets per game at 11.6. He'll be primarily working against Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes, a player that has morphed from a matchup that we used to avoid into one we are able to target. Of the cornerbacks expected to start on Wild Card Round, Rhodes ranks above only Houston's Vernon Hargreaves with a PFF grade of 44.7.

Julian Edelman - TEN @ NE ($6,500)

I'm hoping that we can take advantage of some recency bias here with Julian Edelman. Edelman has been banged up recently, but we have to think that he will come to play Saturday (reports from Patriots practices indicate that he appears healthier). Edelman was targeted 153 times during the regular season - the fourth-most targets in the league - and even with his nagging injuries he's had recent target counts of 7/6/5/12 over the past month. I look for that number to be at or above double digits in this all-important playoff game against a Titans Defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass and has struggled to stop elite wide receivers with their less-than-stellar secondary.

Cole Beasley - BUF @ HOU ($5,600)

I'm actually interested in both Buffalo receivers in this matchup, but we'll give the nod to Beasley since he's a little cheaper than his running mate John Brown. Houston has struggled so badly against slot receivers that they were forced to bring in Tampa Bay Bucs castoff Vernon Hargreaves, which should tell you all you need to know. Of all the cornerbacks expected to start this weekend, Hargreaves carries the lowest PFF CB grade at just 42.2. Beasley might lack John Brown's explosiveness, but he's seen heavy volume as of late, averaging a shade over eight targets per game over his last five starts, while going for over 100 yards in two of those outings. In this matchup, at this price, Beasley offers a really nice combination of floor and ceiling.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Wild Card Round Picks

Dallas Goedert - SEA @ PHI ($5,200)

All eyes are gonna be on Zach Ertz's injury status here, but I'm of the belief that Dallas Goedert is a very viable play even if Ertz does somehow suit up. He's been heavily involved in this Philly passing attack over the last two weeks, racking up a MASSIVE 22 targets in Philly's last two games. The Seahawks are surprisingly a great matchup for Goedert, as they trail only the Arizona Cardinals in DK Points, receiving yards, and TDs allowed to the TE position. It all sets up for Goedert to be the first look for Carson Wentz this week.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Wild Card Round Picks

New Orleans Saints Defense - MIN @ NO ($3,000)

This Saints unit has been spotty this season, but I'm always interested in targeting them at home. They get a Minnesota offense that was rested last week and only managed 10 points against Green Bay in their last true outing in Week 16. Kirk Cousins has cut down on the turnovers, but we know that they can come in bunches for him - especially in what will be a hostile environment. The Saints are very good at getting to the QB and their 51 sacks ranked third in the NFL this season.

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