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Dave's Week 5 NFL player props picks. Get his best Week 5 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
October has arrived, and the first month of the 2025 NFL season is now in the rearview mirror. We had a pretty good showing in this article last week. Woody Marks popped for a big game, and we hit the over on his rushing yardage and other props. Omarion Hampton had his best game as a pro and ran for 128 rushing yards against the New York Giants. Our biggest hit, though, was a 20-1 long shot play on Ashton Jeanty to have the most rushing yards in Sunday games. That ticket returned a sweet payday to anyone who tailed, so hopefully you got in on that action.
However, now is no time to rest on our laurels. Even though we scored some big wins last week, it means absolutely nothing for Week 5. We have to continue to grind it out to identify the best plays possible, win, lose, or draw. Now, let's get to all the good stuff.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Here are some of my favorite player prop bets for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
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Best NFL Player Props Week 5
Before we begin, I want to make a quick note. You'll notice that the betting lines recommended below might be different than the ones you're currently viewing at your sportsbook. That's because the prop lines move up and down throughout the week. This is due to an influx of money on one side of the line, and it causes the books to adjust the prop accordingly.
I do my best to update each prop as the lines move, but the prop market sees some wild fluctuations. That makes timing essential when it comes to successful prop betting. The goal is to get solid CLV (closing line value) on every play.
If you want to make sure you're getting the best of the number for some of these plays, consider signing up for a RotoBaller Premium membership. Myself and the rest of the RotoBaller NFL Betting team release props in our Discord throughout the week to try and beat the market. A good example of this: last week, I released a play on the OVER for Omarion Hampton's rushing yardage prop at 58.5 on Wednesday morning. A few hours later, the line had moved into the low 60s, and by kickoff on Sunday, it was up to 70.5 at some sportsbooks. Even though Hampton blew by all these numbers, that is not always the case with player props, and that type of CLV (closing line value) could be the difference between winning or losing your bet.
Week 5 Passing Prop Bets
C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+159) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1 Unit to Win 1.59 Units
The Houston passing game finally showed signs of life against the Tennessee Titans last week. Stroud now draws a matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defense that has been one of the worst in the league. Baltimore currently ranks 24th in FTN Fantasy’s defensive passing DVOA and has allowed the second-most passing yards per game.
This is a good opportunity for Stroud to build on last week’s success, and I believe he is live to throw multiple touchdown passes for the second consecutive week. Getting this line at plus odds makes it even more appealing.
Dillon Gabriel UNDER 178.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .3 Units
Gabriel gets the nod this weekend after the Browns benched veteran Joe Flacco. He gets a tough opening assignment as the Minnesota Vikings currently rank eighth in defensive passing DVOA and have allowed the third-fewest passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this year.
Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for his aggressive, blitz-heavy defense, and that could give Gabriel fits in this game. Cleveland’s offensive line ranks 30th in PFF’s pass-blocking grade, so this looks like a bad match-up for the Browns' rookie.
Expect Cleveland’s offense to struggle moving the ball, with Gabriel specifically struggling to push the ball downfield. The Vikings' defense could also really get after him in this game and force him into several poor decisions.
It will be fun watching Gabriel over the next few games. Things might get really ugly this week. This is a low number, hence the small unit size, but I expect Gabriel to largely struggle against Minnesota's defense.
Week 5 Rushing Prop Bets
Chase Brown UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk 1.14 Units to Win 1 Unit
Four weeks into the season, and Brown continues to be one of the worst running backs in the league. Among 43 running backs with 25+ carries, Brown ranks:
- 32nd in PFF elusive rating
- 39th in PFF rushing grade
- 41st in explosive run rate per Fantasy Points Data Suite
- 42nd in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected
Now Brown gets to face a Detroit Lions defense that ranks fourth in defensive rushing DVOA and allows the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game. The Bengals rank dead last in offensive rushing DVOA and PFF’s offensive run-blocking grade. This is just a bad matchup for a Bengals team averaging only 50 rushing yards per game.
I will be fading Brown this week and would play this number down to 50.5.
Kendre Miller OVER 28.5 Rush Yards (-116) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.16 Units to Win 1 Unit
Miller had one of his best games as a professional last week against the Buffalo Bills. He ran for 65 rushing yards on 11 carries and scored a touchdown.
Yessirrrrrr😤
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/luooz9jl8l
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 28, 2025
He also played a season-high 37% of offensive snaps and looked a lot like the exciting prospect we saw coming out of TCU a few years ago. Miller and the Saints have a great matchup this weekend as they face a New York Giants team that just allowed 152 rushing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4. The Giants also rank dead last in defensive rushing DVOA and 25th in PFF’s run defense grade.
Sunday’s game presents one of New Orleans’ best chances to win a game this season, and the team should be hungry for a victory after playing the Buffalo Bills tough last week. Expect New Orleans to be competitive here and lean heavily on its ground game to pick up the win.
If that’s the case, then Miller could finish with double-digit carries for the second straight game and should easily surpass this total.
*This line has been bet up to as high as 33.5 at some sportsbooks. I would still feel comfortable playing it at that number.*
Michael Carter OVER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-125) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .63 Units to Win .5 Units
There’s some speculation regarding who will function as the Cardinals' RB1 with James Conner and Trey Benson both on injured reserve. While some think Emari Demercado will get the nod, Carter seems like the more logical choice as Arizona previously used him as a bellcow last year in Weeks 17 and 18 while Conner was hurt.
The Titans' run defense has been dreadful and allows over 141 rushing yards per game. This is a good matchup for Carter and the Cardinals' offensive line. I am a bit hesitant to bet the over on Carter’s rushing yards, as he was up and down with efficiency while filling in for Conner last year.
The Cardinals are listed as 7.5-point favorites in this game, and there should be plenty of opportunities for Carter to surpass this total.
*This line has fallen to 11.5, but I am still willing to play the over.*
Kenneth Walker III UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .44 Units to Win .4 Units
Seattle plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5. Tampa Bay’s defense has had some issues with pass coverage, but its run defense has been elite. The Buccaneers rank first in defensive rushing DVOA and have allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing backs through four games.
Walker has played well but remains in a timeshare with Zach Charbonnet. That means Walker will have a hard time surpassing this total on volume alone. Seattle might also utilize Charbonnet more in this matchup, as his north/south running style could work better against the Tampa Bay front as opposed to Walker’s all-or-nothing approach.
There are too many variables working against Walker this week, and I am fading him as a result.
Week 5 Receiving Prop Bets
Jameson Williams OVER 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.15 Units to Win 1 Unit
This is my favorite prop of the week. Williams only caught two passes for 40 yards in last week’s game, but Detroit came close to hitting him for multiple big plays in that game. The Lions are now set to face a Bengals defense that has been dreadful at defending opposing passing games.
Cincinnati ranks 27th in defensive passing DVOA and has allowed the seventh most receiving yards to opposing receivers this year. The Bengals have also allowed a receiver to catch a pass longer than 22 yards in every game this season.
I think Williams is live for a monster performance this week, and I think he is live for at least one splash play in this game, too.
*This line has been bet up to as high as 24.5 at some books. However, this is still a 22.5 available at DraftKings (-115), and I'd still wager a full unit at that number.*
Nico Collins OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet 365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
We already touched on the Ravens' porous passing defense being great news for C.J. Stroud this week. However, it’s even better for Collins' outlook, who has surprisingly eclipsed 80 receiving yards just once this year.
Baltimore's defense is not playing well. That means Stroud could have plenty of time to find Collins down the field, and he could pop for a few big plays as a result.
This number is too low given the Ravens’ defensive struggles this season, and Collins could crack triple digits for the second time this season. I’d play this number up 79.5 for a full unit.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Harrison turned things around in the second half of his Week 4 game against the Seattle Seahawks. Now he gets to face a Tennessee Titans defense that’s been among the worst in the league. Tennessee ranks 23rd in defensive rushing DVOA against opposing WR1s and allows nearly 80 yards per game to the position.
The Cardinals will look to run the football in this game, but I am not sure they’ll be as efficient in that area as they'd like. That could mean the best course of action is to attack the Titans' defense through Harrison and tight end Trey McBride.
Harrison is live for his best game of the season here. I’ll look to play some of his alternate receiving lines, too, as I think he could crack 100 receiving yards for the first time this year.
🤩 IT'S MARV 🤩
📺 Amazon Prime pic.twitter.com/LfzYZCZQZQ
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 26, 2025
*This line has been bet up to 54.5. I think there is still plenty of value at this number and would still play it for a full unit.*
Mason Taylor Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-118) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .59 Units to Win .5 Units
The Jets are in desperate need of a second pass-catcher behind Garrett Wilson, and Taylor could be emerging as that option. He has seen consistent playing time in New York’s offense since Week 1, but last weekend it finally started to translate to some production. Taylor posted a 5-65-0 line on seven targets Monday night against the Miami Dolphins.
This week presents a perfect opportunity for Taylor to build upon that game. New York takes on the Dallas Cowboys, who have arguably the worst defense in the league. Dallas ranks 32nd in defensive passing DVOA and allows over 297 passing yards per game, which also ranks last in the league. The Cowboys haven’t been any better against tight ends as they rank 27th in DVOA against the position.
I expect another solid performance from Taylor and think he covers this number. Play it up to 35.5.
Evan Engram UNDER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-111) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .33 Units to Win .3 Units
Engram has been disappointing so far in his first season in Denver. He hasn’t played 50% of offensive snaps in any game this year and has yet to surpass 29 receiving yards in a game as well.
That appears likely to remain the case this weekend as Denver travels across the country to take on a Philadelphia Eagles team that’s been very good at limiting opposing tight ends. Philadelphia ranks first in DVOA against opposing tight ends and allows an average of 24.3 receiving yards per game to the position.
Engram has been stuck platooning with fellow tight end Adam Trautman due to the latter being a better run-blocker. That could prove even more problematic for Engram this weekend as Denver could choose to rely on its running game to move the football rather than trusting quarterback Bo Nix to consistently beat the Eagles' defense.
Engram just hasn’t panned out so far in Denver. He will have his moments later in the year, but this week doesn't look like one of them. This is a very low number, hence the small unit size, but this is a bad matchup for a player who hasn't had a large role on offense. This prop is as low as 21.5 at some sportsbooks, but I would not play it any further below the number in this article.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Kendre Miller Most Rushing Yards in New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants (+750) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .25 Units to Win 1.9 Units
Jameson Williams Most Receiving Yards on Sunday - Excluding MIN at CLE (+4000) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 4 Units
De'Von Achane Most Rushing Yards on Sunday - Excluding MIN at CLE (+2000) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .1 Units to Win 2 Units
Alvin Kamara Most Rushing Yards on Sunday - Excluding MIN at CLE (+4500) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .05 Units to Win 2.25 Units
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play calling and thus influence props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time. You can read our weekly NFL Weather Report here.
Week 5 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the rushing props I recommended in this article in one place!
- C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+150) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Dillon Gabriel UNDER 178.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Chase Brown UNDER 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kenneth Walker III UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-125) Fanatics Sportsbook
- Kendre Miller OVER 28.5 Rush Yards (-116) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Michael Carter OVER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-125) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Jameson Williams OVER 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) BetMGM Sportsbook
- Nico Collins OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet 365 Sportsbook
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Evan Engram UNDER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-111) DraftKings Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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