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In 2020, Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Justus Sheffield had his most sustained success as a big-league pitcher to date. He made 10 starts and posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while averaging 7.8 K/9. It was far from the breakout season we have been hoping for from Sheffield. However, it was a big step in the right direction.
A first-round pick in 2014, Sheffield was one of the top prospects in the New York Yankees system for a few years. In 2018, he was traded to the Mariners as the headliner in a package deal for his now-teammate James Paxton.
Sheffield still has a long way to go to live up to his potential. He might never get there, but last year provided several signs suggesting that he’s worth targeting late in drafts as an intriguing post-hype sleeper heading into 2021.
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Staying Out of Trouble
In 2019, Sheffield only reached the end of the fifth inning in three of his seven starts. He only reached the end of the sixth inning once, his only quality start of the year, which came against the Cincinnati Reds in September.
2019 was a rough year across the board for Sheffield, his first extended stretch in the majors as he pitched just 2 2/3 innings prior to the 2019 season. In 2019, he posted a 5.50 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over 36 innings.
Last year, Sheffield earned a quality start in six of his 10 starts. He allowed six earned runs to the Los Angeles Angels in late August, but apart from that start, he never allowed more than four earned runs in an outing.
There was a clear change in Sheffield’s approach in 2020. He was a solid strikeout pitcher in 2019, despite his overall struggles. He averaged 9.3 K/9 in 2019 and that rate dropped to just 7.8 K/9 last year. Instead of focusing on bat missing in 2020, he was more focused on generating weak contact and limiting base runners.
As a result, his WHIP dropped from 1.72 in 2019 to 1.30 in 2020 and his BB/9 dropped from 4.5 in 2019 to 3.3 last year. If he can continue to improve on those rates in 2021, we will likely end up seeing his ERA continue to inch downward.
Limiting Barrels
Sheffield excelled in limiting barrels last year. He ranked fifth in the league in barrel rate amongst pitchers who faced at least 200 batters.
His 3.7% barrel rate in 2020 was a significant improvement from 2019, when he registered a barrel rate of 5.5%. He was tagged for five home runs in 2019 and only two in 2020, despite throwing nearly 20 more innings in 2020 than he did in 2019.
He also did a great job at generating pop-ups in 2020. He had an infield fly ball rate of 15.6% last year, up from 6.3% in 2019.
Pitch Mix
In 2019, Sheffield had horrible results from his four-seam fastball. He threw the pitch 47.8% of the time and it generated a put-away percentage of just 7.1%. It had no movement whatsoever on it, averaging just 21.1 inches of vertical drop, nearly 4 inches beneath the league average vertical drop of 24.8 inches.
Last year, Sheffield cut the pitch from his arsenal almost entirely, throwing it just six times. Instead, he led with his two most effective pitches, his slider and a new sinker that he didn’t throw in 2019.
Both pitches had solid movement, generating more average vertical drop than league average. The slider, which he threw 33.5% of the time, registered a put-away rate of 23.1% while the sinker, which he threw 47.4% of the time, generated a put-away rate of 18.1%.
Current Draft Value
Sheffield currently has an ADP around 350. Nearly 150 pitchers are being drafted over him.
He may not have the overall upside potential of some other pitchers being drafted in the same range like Michael Kopech, Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal. However, he could very well end up with a superior ERA and more quality starts than anyone of that group.
The Mariners finished just six games under .500 in 2020 and the team has a good chance to inch above .500 this coming year. It’s a young team with numerous promising prospects nearing their big league debuts. Sheffield is set to be right in the middle of the team’s rotation and could be one of the Mariners’ top arms if he continues to improve from last year.
Take Sheffield in the late rounds of deep leagues and AL-only leagues if you need rotation depth. His value is boosted in any league that rewards quality starts. Conversely, his value is a bit lower in any rotisserie or head-to-head categories league that utilizes K/9.
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