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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on April 11th, 2019. Ben Rolfe's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Another Thursday split slate for us to break down here in this article. The opening slate kicks off at 12:35 with the Athletics @ Orioles, before handing over to the late at 7:10 pm when the Blue Jays and Red Sox face off.
Oakland is the biggest favorites on the early slate but there are a few matchups that look lopsided among those first five. The key lineups to watch for run scoring are the Mariners and Athletics, who seem to be benefiting from starting their season a week earlier than everyone else. However, only the Mariners seem to have really seen a team-wide price increase, while the Athletics remain decent prices. On the late slate, the Red Sox are the biggest favorite but questions over Nathan Eovaldi make it hard to lean on him. This slate could see less run scoring, but there are still plenty of teams who can put up big totals when they get it right.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/11/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @benrolfe15.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Sonny Gray, CIN (vs. MIA) - $8,900 (Early)
I do not enjoy picking Sonny Gray ever for DFS, as his performances can vary wildly from start to start. However, he is coming off a seven-strikeout one-earned run performance last time out against the Pirates and has a relatively favorable matchup here. The Marlins have scored over four runs on just one occasion this season, and are hitting just .211 against right-handed pitchers in 2019. They struggled against right-handed pitching last season as well, ranking last in the majors in slugging percentage against them (.361). Gray pitching in hitter-friendly Cincinnati is always risky, but this might be the least risky matchup in that park that he faces all season.
Aaron Brooks, OAK (@ BAL) - $6,900 (Early)
Outside of 12 run breakout on Monday the Orioles lineup has been pretty cold over the last five days. Over the course of the season, they rank 21st in home runs (12), 21st in slugging (.383) and 22nd in OBP (.299). This is reflected in their team run over/under of 4.5, suggesting that Vegas does not see them piling on the runs in this outing. Brooks has had two contrasting starts so far this season, but his upside was demonstrated in a six strikeout, zero earned run performance against the Red Sox in his first outing. As an added benefit, Brooks has not done damage to himself this season, with just two walks in his 11 innings. This is a risky pick because when the conditions are wrong in Camden Yards things can go badly very quickly.
Jon Gray, COL (@ SF) - $9,300 (Late)
I am a big proponent of the theory of giving Jon Gray a chance when he is pitching outside of Coors. That is especially the case when he is pitching in San Francisco, against a team who ranks in the bottom five in the majors this season in batting average, OBP, home runs and slugging. Gray demonstrated in his first start that he can rack up the strikeouts when he is facing bad teams, with 10 against the Marlins. His last start was against a hot Dodgers team in Coors and was always going to be tough. Additionally, Gray has surrendered just three walks in 12 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts, which is an extremely positive start.
Zack Godley, ARI (vs. SD) - $8,300 (Late)
This feels like a pay up for the top guys kind of slate and Godley has enough upside to be worth it. His ERA this season is inflated by a disastrous first start at the Dodgers but he bounced back nicely against Boston (one earned, five strikeouts). The Padres are a streaky team, who have scored three runs or less in three of their last six games. They also are entering the final part of an 11-game road trip which could see them somewhat fatigued in this outing.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Omar Narvaez, SEA (@ KC) - $3,800 (Early)
The cost for Narvaez is high but with the light pitching, it is worth it. When it comes to wOBA (.371), ISO (.169) and wRC+ (124) against right-handed pitching, Narvaez leads the position. Additionally, he is part of one of the hottest lineups in baseball right now and the price bump is worth the risk for this position.
C - Tyler Flowers, ATL (vs. NYM) - $3,500 (Late)
Flowers is off to a solid start this season, with a .400 batting average and a home run in 15 at bats. He struggled against right-handed pitching last season but did have success when left-handed pitchers were on the mound, posting a .489 wOBA, .258 ISO and 259 wRC+.
1B - Kendrys Morales, OAK (@ BAL) - $3,600 (Early)
There are a number of options you could take at first base but Morales has interesting upside. He has struggled this season so far, but has registered hits in each of his last two games. Additionally, he had a .366 wOBA and .221 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season. In the same vein, Dylan Bundy struggled against left-handed-hitters last season, surrendering a .379 wOBA and 1.95 HR/9 against him. He has also struggled in each of his last two starts, giving up six earned runs in total across just 7.1 innings.
1B - Justin Smoak, TOR (@ BOS) - $4,100 (Late)
Smoak has been struggling with an injury and has been out of the Blue Jays lineup the last few games. However, facing the right-handed Eovaldi, who is also struggling, could be just the cure he needs. Last season Smoak hit for a .378 wOBA, .259 ISO and a 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
2B - Jurickson Profar, OAK (@ BAL) - $3,800 (Early)
Building off the numbers for Bundy against left-handed hitters means that Profar is another interesting Athletics hitter today. Profar has struggled to open the season but is coming off the back of back-to-back games in which he has hit a home run, registering five hits and seven RBI in that time. Much like Morales, he enjoyed facing right-handed pitching last season, with a .350 wOBA and a .216 ISO.
2B - Ben Zobrist, CHC (vs. PIT) - $3,700 (Late)
With the chance he could be back leading off on Thursday, Zobrist makes for a really interesting selection. Last season he had a .371 wOBA, .158 ISO and 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. He is off to a good start getting on base with a .34 batting average, but the lack of extra-base hits might be enough of a concern to stop his ownership being high in this one.
3B - Justin Turner, LAD (@ STL) - $4,100 (Early)
It has been a slow start to the season for Turner but a .394 wOBA and .190 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season gives me hope he can turn it around. Wacha also allows 1.29 HR/9 against right-handed hitters, so hopefully, Turner can open his account in this one.
3B - Josh Donaldson, ATL (vs. NYM) - $3,900 (Late)
It has been a rough start for Donaldson but a matchup with the left-handed Steven Matz may be just the tonic. Last season, Donaldson hit for a .382 wOBA and a .241 ISO against left-handed pitching. Additionally, Matz allowed 1.68 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, which may mean we see Donaldson open his account for 2019.
SS - Adalberto Mondesi, KC (vs. SEA) - $4,900 (Early)
I seem to pick Mondesi every single time, but that is because of how successful he has been to open the season. There is not much power but with four doubles and three triples already on the season, he is finding ways to contribute. He is hitting in the meat of the order for the Royals every game, and with Whit Merrifield ahead of him, he is seeing regular opportunities with runners on base.
SS - Trevor Story, COL (@ SF) - $4,500 (Late)
I have no real faith in Jeff Samardzija any more and all the faith in Story to turn his season around. Story demolished right-handed pitching last season, with a .364 wOBA and a .237 ISO. Samardzija does not give up much against right-handed hitters but crucially for Story, he struggles with strikeouts against them as well.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Cody Bellinger, LAD (@ STL) - $5,400 (Early)
If you have the cash, it is hard not to pick Bellinger, who has a .426 batting average and .907 slugging this season. He is perhaps due a home run, having gone three games without one, and had great numbers against right-handed pitching last season, with a .377 wOBA, a .233 ISO and a 131 wRC+. He has been living up to those numbers again this year, hitting five of his seven home runs with right-handed pitchers on the mound, giving him a .611 wOBA and a .541 ISO against them.
Khris Davis, OAK (@ BAL) - $4,800 (Early)
Davis comes into this game off the back of a two-home run performance yesterday, taking his total to seven on the season. He crushed right-handed pitching last season, putting up a .377 wOBA and a .316 ISO against them with a 151 wRC+ to boot. Bundy was marginally better against right-handed hitting last season, but Davis should still be able to do damage.
Stephen Piscotty, OAK (@ BAL) - $3,800 (Early)
Piscotty has not had the explosive start that Davis has, but he also had nice numbers against right-handed pitching last season. In 2018 he posted a .367wOBA and a .232 ISO when right-handed pitchers took to the mound.
Hunter Renfroe, SD (@ ARI) - $4,400 (Late)
The outfield for the late slate is a bit of a struggle outside of the top few guys. One slightly cheaper option on the slate is Renfroe, who posted a .347 wOBA and .266 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season. this season he has a .324 batting average, .824 slugging, and four home runs already.
Charlie Blackmon, COL (@ SF) - $4,400 (Late)
Again on the more expensive side, Blackmon has all the stats on his side. Not only did he do well against right-handed pitchers last season (.378 wOBA and .237 ISO) but Samardzija also struggled against left-handed hitters (.347 wOBA and 2.04 HR/9).
MLB DFS News and Injury Alerts
