RADIO
The lineup (in draft order): Jacob Bogardus, Brad Johnson, Alex Brock, Harris Yudin, Max Petrie, Josh Leonard, Ross Williamson, Andrew Miller (from The Fantasy Fix), Nick Mariano (myself), Tom Bellucco, Brian Dunshee (also from The Fantasy Fix), and Edward Suletan. Scroll to the bottom for an image of the draftboard.
We put together a traditional 5x5 redraft 23 round mock with two catchers, a corner and middle infielder, and five outfield slots. Pre-draft chatter touched quite a bit on how having five OFs to start would affect draft strategies.
Eventually I’ll take on more rounds at once and speak on standouts, but early on I think it’s important to touch ‘em all. Let’s see about round three.
Analyzing The Third Round
Jacob gets us started with Joey Votto, who bounced back from an injury riddled 2014 with a great 2015 campaign. He squares up the ball so well, only registering a 9.5% soft contact rate, and there’s no reason for this not to continue. Losing Frazier does hurt his counting stats, but the man is one of the purest hitters in the game.
Brad took Chris Davis with the next pick as he continues to build an empire of home runs. I don’t think enough was made of Davis’ medical situation not being clear in 2014 and his TUE (Therapeutic Use Exemption) for Adderall being rejected. 2013/2015 feel much more real to me as opposed to having that weighing on you. Not to pin all of his struggles on that, he can still turn in a subpar year, but the possibility of MVP type numbers won’t see him slide far. The only player with a longer batted ball distance in 2015 was Giancarlo Stanton.
Alex takes Nelson Cruz next, with 40 homer bats being a valuable commodity to lock down. Even though he plays in Safeco, he managed to make the most of his road trips and hit 27 of his 44 dingers away from Seattle. Don’t draft him thinking he can be a .300 hitter now, an uncharacteristic .350 BABIP fueled it (his usual BABIP ranges from .288-.300).
Harris then taps Ryan Braun, continuing his “I’m building an elite outfield, just try to stop me” strategy. Braun battled through injuries again last year, but he still posted his best year since 2012, falling one stolen base shy of a 25/25 season. He turns 32 this year, and you’d probably be foolish to count on a healthy year out of him, but an 80% Ryan Braun is still capable of being valuable here.
Max selects Starling Marte next, who seems pretty safe for a line like 85-16-80-30-.285. I’m not a believer in the power surge, as his HR/FB rate jumped quite a bit but his FB% dropped from 29.2% to 22.7%. That said, the aforementioned line is certainly worth it here, especially in a 5 OF format.
Josh goes top shelf for Corey Seager with the sixth pick in the third, whose cup of coffee left a major impression on fantasy owners. Seager did look very good, there is no doubting it, but people are drafting him like his production in 113 plate appearances is the norm. I’d be very wary of spending a third rounder on him, but I am also one who shoots for a strong floor early. Steamer has him hitting .265, which will probably be closer than the .337 he hit at the end of last year.
Ross takes Yoenis Cespedes next, who the Mets just brought back on a very rich deal for Yo. His rookie year was incredible, but 2015 was definitely his career best in my eyes. A career high in homers comes with a career high in hard hit rate. He was raking in 2015, seeing the ball very well. If anyone is worried that he’ll rest on his laurels with this contract, the opt out should keep that grounded.
Andrew is the one to finally take Buster Posey, who has additional marginal value in a two catcher format. Posey’s consistent production is something you can take to the bank, he’ll only be 29 and gets to spell his catching days with first base work. Far and away the safest and best catcher, Posey in the third here has nothing debatable to it.
It was my turn to pick and I knew I had to get an outfielder after taking two infielders. Enter Adam Jones. As I mentioned, I seek floor here, and while I think I’ll probably look back and regret not taking Lorenzo Cain, I think Jones’ BABIP returns to his usual .310 range from last year’s .286 and he’ll hit 25 homers for me.
I didn’t take Lorenzo Cain, so Tom did. Cain turns 30 this year, and while I’m not saying that’s old, I think some think he is 27 or something. In 2014 he had an average fly ball distance of 260.65 feet, and in 2015 that shot up to 282.04 feet. Steamer isn’t a believer in Cain, calling for regression in all five categories. I have a lot more faith in Cain than they do, and clearly Tom does too.
Brian pledges allegiance to his name and takes Brian Dozier next, which prompted me to ask him in a follow-up email why he was deserving of a third round pick. He said he was expected a run on second basemen to come soon and is a huge fan of Dozier’s, so he had to lock him up. I don’t like Dozier as much as Brian and I won't be taking him in Round 3, but I do like him and his power/speed offering (even if it comes with a lousy average). Getting 25 bombs and 15 bags out of your second baseman is huge.
Ed aka “Crazy Reds Fans” takes Todd Frazier to end the third round. Frazier might be on the White Sox now, but the Reds player card was still calling Ed. Okay, on a serious note Frazier had a torrid first half that he capped off with a Home Run Derby victory on his home field. I don’t think anyone expected him to keep it up all year, but no one could have seen such a disastrous second half coming. Somewhere in the middle is “true Frazier”, and the move to Chicago is pretty lateral (though his runs and RBI potential does get a slight bump up). This is a good spot to take him.
No, your eyes are not deceiving you. Just like in Round 2, no pitcher was selected this time around either. I'd have taken them over guys like Corey Seager and Brian Dozier, but it was clear that the draft room was scooping up hitting early and this was the result.
