RADIO
That was fun, wasn't it? Wild-card weekend is a wrap, and jeez, was it wild.
It started with a kickoff return for a touchdown, ended with the Green Bay Packers completing the first-ever wild-card weekend sweep for road teams, and in between we had a shutout in Houston, a self-inflicted collapse and near riot in Cincinnati, and Blair Walsh's infamous 27-yard shank in Minnesota.
Some of our top projected daily fantasy stacks worked out (Kirk Cousins-Jordan Reed), and some didn't (Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin), but that's just how it goes sometimes. Trust the numbers and trust your own process. Here's how we rank the potential stacks for the divisional round games, sorted in order of appeal rather than price.
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Strong DFS Stacks
Arizona QB Carson Palmer and WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Green Bay
The Cardinals' passing attack, led by the veteran MVP candidate Palmer, represents the safest floor for fantasy production this weekend. The trick here will be finding the receiver(s) that Palmer connects with the most. The hunch here is that Fitzgerald will be on the receiving end of at least Palmer touchdown strike.
The Packers' defense allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 329 yards in the wild-card round, albeit with large chunks of those yards coming late in the fourth quarter. Cousins' longest completion was 38 yards on a dump-off to running back Chris Thompson. Green Bay held deep threat DeSean Jackson to just 17 yards on two receptions. If the Packers similarly defend John Brown and Michael Floyd, that should leave plenty of room for Fitzgerald to operate over the middle. This game also has the highest over/under (50) of the weekend, so Las Vegas expects plenty of points.
Carolina QB Cam Newton and TE Greg Olsen vs. Seattle
What more can be said about Newton's season? It's simply one of the greatest final stat lines we've ever seen -- 3,837 passing yards, 636 rushing yards, 45 total touchdowns. However, there are a few things to consider in this particular matchup against the Seahawks. Newton is just 1-4 in five career starts against Seattle, with a 4-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On the whole, that's simply not good.
Of course, the one win came earlier this season, when Newton engineered three 80-yard scoring drives in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning drive that culminated with a touchdown pass to Olsen. The Panthers will be able to move the ball against Seattle, and Olsen (seven catches, 131 yards in Week 6 meeting) will play a major role. The Seahawks have struggled defending tight ends all season, and a 24-yard catch-and-run by Kyle Rudolph almost cost them dearly against Minnesota.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson and WR Doug Baldwin at Carolina
The wild-card win against the Vikings wasn't pretty for Wilson and the Seahawks' offense. For most of the game, it was downright ugly. But in the fourth quarter, that turned around. First, Wilson turned a botched snap into a scramble-drill, 35-yard completion to Tyler Lockett. Two plays later, he connected with Baldwin on the game's only touchdown.
Baldwin led Seattle with five catches for 42 yards on seven targets. The biting cold of Minneapolis clearly had an effect on both teams, so it's reasonable to chalk the low offensive numbers up to the weather. With temperatures projected for the mid-40s in Charlotte this Sunday, weather shouldn't be a factor. Wilson moved the ball well in the first meeting back in Week 6, finishing with 241 passing yards, 53 rushing yards and a touchdown. A similar performance in the divisional round rematch is a fair expectation.
Risky DFS Stacks
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and WR James Jones at Arizona
Rodgers' placement in the "risky" category is less an indictment on him than it is on the entire Packers offense. Which one will see in the divisional round? Will it be the offense that used a balance attack to score 17 straight points in the first half and 18 straight in the second half against Washington? Or will it be the unmitigated disaster that scored just eight points and allowed nine sacks in a 38-8 throttling by Arizona just three weeks ago?
The safe bet is that it'll fall somewhere in the middle. If Green Bay is going to have any chance of upsetting the Cardinals in Arizona, Rodgers must have a great game. That means 300-plus yards and two, maybe three touchdowns, and if that happens, expect Jones to be heavily involved. His seven receptions, 11 targets and 81 yards were all team highs in the wild-card round, and there's little evidence to suggest he isn't Rodgers' top target at this point.
New England QB Tom Brady and WR Julian Edelman vs. Kansas City
Mandatory disclaimer: Make sure Edelman is active and in the lineup Saturday before deploying him. The assumption here is that the shifty wide receiver will play for the first time since suffering a broken bone in his foot back in November. Brady will look to Edelman early and often against an imposing Chiefs front seven that includes Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, among others.
Rob Gronkowski is always a viable pairing with Brady, but the Chiefs rank No. 1 overall in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. A sneaky pairing could be running back James White. To combat Kansas City's formidable pass rush, a healthy dose of screens and short passes to White could do the trick.
Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown at Denver
This will be the trickiest play of the week. As of Tuesday evening, the statuses of both Roethlisberger and Brown remain unclear. Roethlisberger confirmed Tuesday that he suffered a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder in the wild-card win over Cincinnati. Brown remains in the league's concussion protocol.
At this point, it would appear Roethlisberger is a safer bet to play than Brown, but even if he does, how effective will he be? Denver's defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, so the matchup was tough for Roethlisberger to begin with. The upside here, of course, is that this could represent a major contrarian play. The injuries and substantial cost associated with this duo could drop their ownership numbers significantly. Just make sure to proceed with caution.
Denver QB Peyton Manning and WR Demaryius Thomas vs. Pittsburgh
It's been two months since we've seen Manning start a game, and even longer since we've seen him start and finish a game. Manning came on in relief of Brock Osweiler in the regular-season finale and finished a modest 5-of-9 for 69 yards. He'll likely have to produce more than that against Pittsburgh, which can be beaten through the air on defense.
Thomas is one of the NFL's premier receivers and his value shouldn't change much with the switch from Osweiler to Manning. His consistency gives him a relatively safe floor -- he's had at least five catches and 59 yards in five straight games (with four total touchdowns). Emmanuel Sanders is also a fine play, as he torched the Steelers for 181 yards and a score on 10 catches in Week 15.
DFS Stacks to Avoid
Kansas City QB Alex Smith and TE Travis Kelce at New England
We don't have anything personal against Smith, we swear! He perfectly fits what the Chiefs need from him, but from a fantasy perspective, there's just not much to like. Case in point: Kansas City has now won 11 straight games, including a 30-rout of Houston this past weekend, and Smith has thrown for more than 200 yards in just four of those games.
He does offer upside with his running ability, but it's not enough to offset the lack of yards and touchdowns. If you're digging for a low-owned dart throw for a GPP, Smith certainly fits the bill. But if he's without Jeremy Maclin (ankle), Kelce stands as his only proven, productive target.
