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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 7 of the 2025-26 season, starting on 10/3/2025. He picks out the best plays and looks at how to target the fixtures for fantasy purposes.
Matchday 6 was certainly not short of controversy and drama. Last-minute goals, VAR intervention (and lack of), and the managerial merry-go-round dominated proceedings. Thankfully, we still came out of the weekend with a profit and more productive fantasy picks.
Here, we'll be looking at the best betting plays for Matchday 7 and where you can gain an edge in your fantasy lineups. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
There are FPL, UCL, and DFS articles every week on RotoBaller.com, along with our weekly betting picks and game previews articles. All of which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@F1FantasyEuan, @TheFPLManual, @df_solutions, @thefplbois, and yours truly, @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Betting Picks
Bournemouth (-110) vs. Fulham (+300) - 3:00 p.m. - Friday, October 3
Bournemouth head into the weekend unbeaten in their last five games. The Cherries have also kept three clean sheets during that run. After back-to-back wins, Fulham slipped to a second defeat of the season last week. It was the fifth time in six games that Fulham failed to score more than once.
Fulham has scored just two goals in three away games so far. Bournemouth's three home games have seen a total of four goals. This doesn't look set to be a high-scoring encounter. This fixture ended 1-0 in favor of the home side last season, and a similar result seems likely. We'll add under 3.5 goals to our pick.
The over/under line for corners is set at 10.5. There haven't been more than 10 corners in any of Fulham's three away games. Bournemouth's three home games have averaged 8.7 corners, and there's not been more than 11 in any of them. We'll give ourselves some leeway and take under 11.5 corners here.
Finally, we'll add a total of four or more cards to be shown. Simon Hooper is the referee for this game. No one has shown more cards this season, and Hooper's six yellow cards per game average is the highest among all EPL referees (stats courtesy of whoscored.com).
Bournemouth's 16 yellow cards this season are the second most in the league. Fulham's right behind them with 15 yellow cards. If this is a close and cagey game, there's even more chance we see a few bookings. We'll play over 3.5 cards in a single-game parlay with our other two picks.
Betting Pick: Under 11.5 corners, under 3.5 goals, and over 3.5 cards (+165) 1 unit
Aston Villa (-180) vs. Burnley (+500) - 9:00 a.m. - Sunday, October 5
Aston Villa quadrupled their goal tally for the season when beating Fulham last weekend. Burnley suffered another heavy road defeat. The Clarets have now conceded 11 goals in their three away games. Provided Villa's attack has begun to click, we should see at least three total goals in this game.
Ollie Watkins opened his account last weekend and will be expected to add to it this week. Four of the 11 away goals conceded by Burnley were scored by their opponents' central striker. Burnley's defensive frailties mean Watkins is odds-on to score anytime, but it's still priced well enough to back.
Jaidon Anthony has scored four times for Burnley. Predominantly playing from the left wing, Anthony has had 12 shots in six EPL games, hitting the target with seven of them. His 58.3% SoT% (percentage of shots on target) is second best among the 30 players with at least 10 shots taken this season.
Aston Villa has allowed a total of 75 shots in six games, the joint fifth-most in the league. We'll back Anthony to have a shot on target. That's something he's managed in five of his six appearances this season. Anthony's game log below is courtesy of fbref.com.
Betting Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-121) 1 unit
Betting Pick: Ollie Watkins to score anytime (-117) 1 unit
Betting Pick: Ollie Watkins and Jaidon Anthony over 0.5 shots on target (+135) 1 unit
Brentford (+390) vs. Manchester City (-159) - 11:30 a.m. - Sunday, October 5
After beating Manchester United 3-1 at home last weekend, the Bees welcome Manchester City this week. Brentford has scored in all six EPL games this season. City has conceded at least one goal in four of their last five league games, as they continue to struggle to keep teams out.
This will be a much more difficult game for Brentford than last week. Still, we'll be backing both sides to score and at least three total goals in the match. That's happened in three of the last four meetings between these two sides, and the last two games they've played at the Gtech Community Stadium.
* courtesy of 11v11.com.
City's 14 goals are the most in the league, and only the bottom three sides in the standings have conceded more than Brentford. A reverse scoreline of Brentford's win against Manchester United last week wouldn't come as a surprise.
We'll also play Dango Outtara to have a shot on target. Brentford's record signing has only started three league games, but has tested the opposing goalkeeper in all three matches.
Of the five goals City has conceded in open play, three were scored by opposing wingers. Outtara's direct style lends itself to counter-attacking, which Brentford will need to rely on this weekend. Outtara having a shot on target is well priced and something worth playing.
Betting Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-139) 1.5 units
Betting Pick: Dango Outtara over 0.5 shots on target (-106) 1 unit
Parlay 1: Ollie Watkins and Erling Haaland to score (+246) 1 unit
Parlay 2: Aston Villa over 1.5 goals, Fulham under 1.5 goals, and Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals (+199) 1 unit
Fantasy Premier League Game Previews
Every matchday, we will look at games to target and avoid in fantasy for attack and defense based on what the oddsmakers are pricing. We'll also be highlighting some individual players worth considering based on how games are expected to unfold.
Attack
Arsenal's game with West Ham United is the only one with a line set at over/under 3.5 total goals. As you may suspect, Arsenal is also the only team with minus odds to score three goals (-113). That's an implied probability of 53.05% that the Gunners score three times.
Following an impressive start to the season after a tough set of fixtures, it's understandable that Arsenal are so heavily favoured. The one concern is that West Ham's new manager, Nuno Espirito Santo, will keep his team a lot tighter defensively than they have been in the early goings.
🔴 @Arsenal's strong start to the 2025/26 season continues with a 2-0 win over Olympiacos:
7️⃣ Wins
1️⃣ Draw
1️⃣ Loss
1️⃣8️⃣ Goals scored
3️⃣ Goals conceded
6️⃣ Clean sheets pic.twitter.com/nFBAcRjcfr— Premier League (@premierleague) October 1, 2025
While I would certainly look to include a couple of Arsenal attacking players, I'd leave some room for their defense (more on that shortly). Speaking of Nuno Espirito Santo, his former team travels to Newcastle United this weekend. The Magpies are a team I would focus on targeting in DFS and FPL.
Nottingham Forest's 10.81 xGA (expected goals against) is the second highest in the league. That's despite the 69 shots they've allowed being the 10th most. Ange Postecoglou's attacking brand of football has yet to fully formulate at Forest, and they continue to leak goals.
Newcastle just scored four in their Champions League tie and have an extra day of rest, with Forest playing their Europa League tie on Thursday. Newcastle did the double over Forest last season, scoring seven goals in the process, and would be the main attack I'd focus on in fantasy this week.
Defense
With odds of -143 to not score, West Ham's got an implied probability of 58.85% to blank at Arsenal. Arsenal's 4.46 xGA is the best in the league, and no side has conceded fewer goals this season (three). Arsenal's defenders have also been productive in attack, with three of their back four ranking in the top-7 for points in FPL.
Arsenal defenders have delivered an impressive return this season 📈
With favourable fixtures coming up, are you bringing any in? 🤔#FPL pic.twitter.com/9rDGeGGae5
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) October 2, 2025
Gabriel would be the best target for Arsenal's defense, given his set-piece prowess and West Ham's inability to defend set plays. But he picked up an injury in midweek and is a doubt for the weekend. Gabriel would be my number one target, but any Arsenal defender is worth playing.
Players to Target
Outside of the players we've included in our betting picks and team plays, Jeremy Doku is someone I'm targeting this week. If you're playing Haaland, pairing him with another Manchester City player should be something you're considering, and Doku has been among the returns lately.
Doku has started City's last three EPL games, bagging four assists. Two of those assists were for Haaland. He's still only on 6.1% of FPL teams, which will likely increase considerably if he continues to be among the goal involvements.
Jack Grealish has the third-most shot-creating actions this season (29). He's looked like his old self again with Everton and has been their most creative player by far. Everton hosts high-flying Crystal Palace this Sunday, but that shouldn't mean you shy away from Grealish.
Jack Grealish has made more key passes (17) than any other player in the Premier League this season. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/ucDEOSJIhD
— WhoScored (@WhoScored) October 1, 2025
Palace's 5.55 difference between goals conceded (three) and xGA (8.55) is the biggest in the league. The Eagles also played Dynamo Kyiv away on Thursday. While the game was played in Poland, the travel and midweek games can still be impactful, especially for sides not used to it.
Everton's in a great spot to end Palace's unbeaten record to begin the season, and Grealish will be instrumental in most of Everton's victories this season. Many will look elsewhere this week, especially in DFS. That makes Grealish a more appealing option for Sunday's slate.
Matchday 5 Review
Below is a quick recap of how our picks last matchday turned out. We'll be tracking all our picks throughout the season. Good luck with those FPL and DFS teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
As expected, Manchester City scored a few goals against Burnley. While it was looking bleak for a while, Erling Haaland bagged a late double to return a big points haul and salvage many FPL and DFS lineups. He finished the weekend as the second-highest points scorer in FPL.
Enjoy that, @OfficialFPL fans? 😆 pic.twitter.com/h2mPGhmop5
— Manchester City (@ManCity) September 27, 2025
We avoided Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur's attacks. We were justified to do so as both teams only managed a late goal and didn't offer much by way of fantasy returns. The only downer from our plays was Manchester City's inability to keep a clean sheet.
As well as Haaland, our 'under-the-radar' play of James Garner also provided a return. The Everton midfielder registered his first assist of the season while also picking up two bonus points in FPL. That makes him the Toffees' highest points scorer so far this season.
On the betting front, the biggest disappointment was Bryan Mbeumo's dud for Manchester United. All we needed was a shot on target from the United man against his former club to turn a good weekend into a great weekend. Unfortunately, we were denied that by a cynical foul (and more refereeing controversy).
Should Nathan Collins have been shown a red card for this last-man foul on Bryan Mbeumo? 👀
It led to a penalty, which Caoimhin Kelleher saved. pic.twitter.com/ZNY0REikUR
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) September 27, 2025
If Mbeumo managed to find the net in that moment, we'd have swept two of our three games and hit both of our parlays. Thankfully, that game plus Chelsea's encounter with Brighton saw goals at both ends and made it back-to-back profitable matchdays.
Matchday 6: +0.73 units (9 units played)
Season: +2.23 units (45 units played)
