College Football Picks Against the Spread: Expert Betting Predictions for Friday, September 5 (Week 2)

September 4, 2025

Mike's Week 2 college football betting picks against the spread for Friday, September 5, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

We had a huge weekend of college football to open the 2025 season over Labor Day. Most of the big games were good games. We had a few upsets. We saw a couple of FCS schools collect scalps.

Tarleton State knocked off Army in double overtime. Austin Peay beat Middle Tennessee State by 20 points. Even Kent State snapped its 21-game losing streak with a win over Merrimack. Alabama State gave UAB all it could handle. A couple of Group of 5 powers were knocked off as well.

We have another loaded weekend with 83 total games on Friday and Saturday. Four games are on Friday, but only two feature FBS vs. FBS teams. I don't pick FCS games. The lines usually aren't posted, and if they are, they most certainly are not in our favor. We'll also take a look back at my record for Week 1.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 2 (9/5/25)

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

James Madison at Louisville (-13.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line feels a touch high. The Dukes won't be able to run on Louisville with backs, but Alonza Barnett III may get some traction.

If you're betting on this, shop around. I found a couple of places still carrying this at -14.5. The juice is a lot higher, but I liked the Dukes more with that total. I still think JMU makes it close, but I could just as easily see Louisville winning by 14.

Pick: James Madison +13.5

Northern Illinois at Maryland (-16.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

NIU has a habit of uglying up games. It's how it beat Notre Dame last year. With a true freshman at QB for Maryland, I think we'll see plenty of NIU stacking the box and daring Malik Washington to beat it. He likely will.

Pick: Maryland -16.5

CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results

I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?

You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.

(25) Boise State (-6.5) at South Florida: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is absolutely insane. Not just the fake punt, South Florida snuck their backup QB in for the punter and #1 WR as the gunner and Boise State noticed none of it! pic.twitter.com/hhQhZLfQyW

— Bleed Blue Network (@BleedBNetwork) August 28, 2025

I was not shy about my South Florida pick, but I didn't expect Boise to get blown off the field. I was very impressed by South Florida's defense. It is a player in the CFP race this year. Don't be shocked if the American is better than all but the top two teams in the ACC.

Ohio at Rutgers (-15.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ohio came very close to winning this game. It's great to see Sieh Bangura making an impact at Ohio again. As for Rutgers, it is good enough to be in the top half of the Big Ten (18) and beat a team or two that it isn't expected to.

East Carolina at North Carolina State (-14.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

ECU was covered entering the fourth quarter. I'm glad Katin Houser and company didn't give up.

Jacksonville State at Central Florida (-20.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Tayven Jackson added an element to the offense that Cam Fancher didn't have. How ugly was this game? It was scoreless at halftime. Scott Frost has some work to do in Orlando.

Wyoming (-5.5) at Akron: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wyoming has built an empire in the Rockies, built on games like this. Run the ball. Play stifling defense. Repeat. Win.

Buffalo at Minnesota (-17.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It was a nice opening game for Drake Lindsey and the Gophers. Buffalo put up a little more resistance on defense than last year. It's progress.

Nebraska (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati at Kansas City, MO: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Nebraska has won TWO STRAIGHT games by one score.

Huskers had been 4-22 in one-score games since the start of 2021 before these last two.

— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) August 29, 2025

Some people aren't happy with Dylan Raiola's performance. Why not? He took what the defense gave and didn't turn the ball over. I've watched enough Nebraska football in the last 40 years and can count the number of Nebraska quarterbacks who have done that on one hand. This is still one of the most based fan bases in the entire world. Be happy winning a one-score game!

I'm upset because of the busted spread, but both defenses played well. Cincinnati looked good in one of the loudest road games the team has ever played in.

Miami (OH) at Wisconsin (-17.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I'm glad Wisconsin let off the gas. The Badgers had better hope that Billy Edwards Jr. won't miss most of the season. Danny O'Neil is still a limited passer.

Appalachian State (-6.5) at Charlotte: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I guess I should have maxed this out. App State isn't going to miss a beat with AJ Swann at quarterback.

Kennesaw State at Wake Forest (-17.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Demond Claiborne was hurt about a minute into the game. The Wake offense was putrid after he left.

Western Michigan at Michigan State (-20.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

If Michigan State was on the gas at any point, it let off it in the second half.

Auburn (-2.5) at Baylor: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

This was a miserable defensive showing by Baylor. I concentrated too much on how well the offense looked. The defense was a total disaster. Auburn didn't look very good and still won easily.

Georgia Tech (-4.5) at Colorado: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

FBS players this century with 140+ passing yards, 140+ rushing yards & 3+ rushing TD in a season opener:

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (2019)
Haynes King, @GeorgiaTechFB (2025) pic.twitter.com/knM4hwVWc1

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) August 30, 2025

This is exactly what I expected out of Haynes King this year. There's more where this came from. However, Jamal Haynes is going to have to be a part of this offense at some point as well.

UNLV (-9.5) at Sam Houston: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Passing Yards Leaders

1. Anthony Colandrea(UNLV) 444
2. Micah Alejado(Haw) 367
3. EJ Warner(Fresno) 355
4. Walker Eget(SJSU) 308
5. Jayden Maiava(USC) 295
6. Kaden Anderson(Wyo) 260
7. Sam Leavitt(ASU) 257
8. Maalik Murphy(OSU) 244 pic.twitter.com/or010ml7W0

— West Coast College Sports Guy (@WCCSG_) September 1, 2025

This is what I expected out of Anthony Colandrea at Virginia. Colandrea has learned a lot in his time in Vegas. He played so well that Alex Orji had no prayer of playing for an entire series. This QB competition is over.

Central Michigan at San Jose State (-11.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Central Michigan played Joe Labas entirely too much in this game and still won. Angel Flores looked much better. He ran for 30 yards and didn't have an incompletion in three pass attempts.

For a team that was supposed to have a high-powered offense, this was a miserable showing for the Spartans. Walker Eget had over 300 passing yards again, but he threw two interceptions, and the team couldn't run the ball on a questionable defense. So much for MWC sleeper team...

(1) Texas at (3) Ohio State (-1.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Ohio State's defense played very well. Texas couldn't move the ball for the first 55 minutes of the game. Arch Manning was sailing passes all over the place. This score could have been even worse if not for a couple of dropped passes by Jeremiah Smith and one by Max Klare.

Julian Sayin's line was hurt a little by those dropped passes, but he did what Ohio State needed. No turnovers. Sayin was efficient and had a good command of the offense. We can't say the same for the golden boy on the other side.

Syracuse at (24) Tennessee (-13.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Syracuse didn't really play a bad game. Joey Aguilar and Tennessee were just that good. It took Aguilar all of one half to have a better game on Rocky Top than Nico Iamaleava ever did. Don't bury Tennessee. It is not dead yet.

Mississippi State (-13.5) at Southern Mississippi: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Southern Mississippi made the right coaching hire, but Blake Shapen's monster third quarter was too much for the Eagles. Southern Miss might be a bowl team this year, which means that the Bulldogs may not be the SEC cellar dweller this year.

Florida Atlantic at Maryland (-14.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I should have flipped this pick when I heard Malik Washington was starting. He had a big debut. The best thing for Maryland is that the defense played well against a dangerous offense. The defense was a sore spot in College Park last year.

Ball State at Purdue (-17.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

It was a nice start for Ryan Browne, but it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Ball State might be the worst team in the MAC. Yes, I'm aware that Kent State is still in the MAC. So is UMass. Ball State is right down there with them.

Northwestern at Tulane (-5.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Jake Retzlaff in a 23-3 win vs. Northwestern : 18/31 for 152 yards, TD & a 77.7 QBR; 10 carries for 113 yards & a TD (Transferred from BYU last offseason) pic.twitter.com/CoSe3AqRKB

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) August 31, 2025

Saying that Retzlaff transferred last offseason is a bit disingenuous. He has only been at Tulane for about two months.

Jon Sumrall said that Brendan Sullivan will get snaps this week if healthy, but I wouldn't count on it. It's the same as the Colandrea situation at UNLV. Both have played so well that the team can't bench them or rotate them out.

Toledo at Kentucky (-9.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I knew better. Zach Calzada had his 15 minutes of fame four years ago. He's not getting 15 more.

Old Dominion at (20) Indiana (-23.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Indiana had no interest in covering this line. That said, the Hoosiers played a sloppy game at times. That was surprising to see from a Curt Cignetti team.

Nevada at (2) Penn State (-44.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I was sweating this until Nevada scored that garbage touchdown. This game was never in question, much as we all thought.

Marshall at (5) Georgia (-38.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This was WAY too close for comfort. Georgia could have easily blown past this.

(8) Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I had a feeling about this game. I never thought Alabama would lose, but I thought FSU would keep it close. Then, like a dummy, I looked into Alabama's roster. That "elite" defense was nowhere to be found against the Seminoles.

Nick Saban coached 230 games at Alabama - he had four losses to unranked teams during that stretch.

Kalen Deboer has coached 14 games at Alabama - and just lost his fourth game to an unranked opponent.

Debate, discuss. pic.twitter.com/hNNAMZ8tCW

— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) August 30, 2025

FSU ran the ball at will on the Tide. Thomas Castellanos brought a swagger with him from Boston College that this team didn't have last year.

What was going on the last time Alabama was ranked in the 20’s

- The #1 Song was “Disturbia” by Rihanna
- “Tropic Thunder” was #1 in the box office
- Ryan Williams was a 1-year old
- George W. Bush was president
- Pete Carroll was at USC & Urban Meyer was at Florida

— Cruz Oxenreider (@TheRealCruzOx) September 2, 2025

This is the first time Alabama has started the season with a loss since 2001. Most of the players on this team weren't even alive yet. Honestly, Alabama is lucky to still be ranked at all.

After how Florida State started (and finished) 2024, this was much-needed for Mike Norvell. The seat was warm coming into the season. Now, he likely won't be fired in-season, no matter what happens.

Temple (-1.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I forgot my 2024 credo. #neverUMass.

Coastal Carolina at Virginia (-12.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I would have expected this with Anthony Colandrea. Not so much with Chandler Morris. We've seen this episode before with Morris. He has had some good games at previous stops. This one does feel a little different.

UTSA at (19) Texas A&M (-24.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

That touchdown with under a minute left for the Roadrunners saved me. However, UTSA had a lead in this game in the third quarter. The Aggies stepped up, and Marcel Reed went nuts. The UTSA defense could hold the rest of the team back.

(9) LSU at (4) Clemson (-3.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Do you blame me? LSU had lost five consecutive season openers coming into this one. Three of those were to unranked teams. It's safe to say that LSU outplayed Clemson all over the field in this one. LSU left points on the field. The officials took some away as well.

LSU players wore "1-0" shirts before their season opener against Clemson 😯

They backed it up 🔥

(📸 @JacquesDoucet) pic.twitter.com/5FxdsrMg2z

— ESPN (@espn) August 31, 2025

When it comes down to it, LSU needed this game more, and it played like it. Clemson is still the favorite in the ACC, though the conference may be a little tougher than we thought 10 days ago.

New Mexico at (14) Michigan (-34.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Some are going to want to pile on Michigan for not playing that well. I won't be one of them. Sure, giving up 17 points to New Mexico is a felony in some states, but what stuck out to me was the performance of Bryce Underwood.

How about the touch on this Bryce Underwood toss? 🎯💯 pic.twitter.com/flzeBEZdfj

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 3, 2025

It has only been one game, but I haven't been this impressed with a Michigan quarterback in a very long time. It's not just the arm strength. It was the touch on passes. And most importantly, he didn't make ill-advised throws.

We'll see what happens when he runs into a defense that can confuse him, but for now, the hype wasn't too much.

Missouri State at USC (-35.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I bet UMass is glad that the Bears moved up. The Minutemen may not be the worst FBS team anymore...

UTEP at Utah State (-6.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

We saw some good things from Malachi Nelson in this game. Kenny Odom is still the best receiver you have never heard of. The good ends there for the Miners. They couldn't run the ball, and they couldn't stop Bryson Barnes.

Georgia State at (21) Mississippi (-34.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Look, Georgia State is not a bad team. It sure looked like it in this one. The Rebels didn't let up. This looks like a team on a mission. I had it ranked in my top 12 in the preseason. Maybe others should have as well.

Is it the offensive scheme that failed Harrison Wallace III at Penn State, or was it the quarterback? After Week 1, we know that he's a perfect fit in this scheme.

Rice at Louisiana (-11.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is the first time a group of Cajuns has ever failed to cook Rice https://t.co/DK50Ashmt8

— Alex Hickey (@bigahickey) August 31, 2025

He said it better than I ever could...

Eastern Michigan at Texas State (-13.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Since conference realignment is all the rage, I want to see Texas State and UTSA join the Big 12. The conference name is an oxymoron anyway. Why not add two more fun teams to the mix?

Georgia Southern (-1.5) at Fresno State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

E.J. Warner had a bad game. Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke are the ones who carried the Bulldogs to victory. I hammered the money line on this one. I should have raised the bet here.

California at Oregon State (-1.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was electric in his collegiate debut for Cal 🐻

20/30 | 234 yards | 3 TDs

An ESPN 300 prospect, he competed at 5 different camps & events during his time in HS. The early success is no surprise for guys who love to compete 💯https://t.co/G1eMriyavZ pic.twitter.com/ex2MC2O4dX

— Billy Tucker (@TheUCReport) September 3, 2025

There were a lot of highly anticipated college debuts for quarterbacks in Week 1. Almost nothing was said about Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He was better than all of the rest, and his game was on the road at one of the most annoying places to play for opponents.

Listening to a chainsaw rev for hours on TV is bad enough. Imagine trying to call plays through that!

Hawaii at Arizona (-17.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Hawaii did the right thing and pulled Micah Alejado from this game. He clearly was not operating at 100%, and the game was mostly out of reach before Luke Weaver came in. Weaver sealed it.

Utah (-5.5) at UCLA: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

This was easy money. Utah is going to be a dangerous team in the Big 12 (16). I wondered for all of last season how Devon Dampier would look on a better team. I got my answer.

Call him Dynamic Dampier⚡️
3 TDs
290+ Yards
21/25 Pass Completions
Devon Dampier Highlights vs. UCLA🎬#Big12FB | @Utah_Football pic.twitter.com/mMTmQug9NJ

— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) August 31, 2025

Colorado State at Washington (-21.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Colorado State looked the part on offense, but run defense is going to be a problem. There isn't a back quite as good as Jonah Coleman in the Mountain West, but there are a lot of teams that love to run the ball. What is Jai'Den Thomas from UNLV going to do to this D?

Virginia Tech vs. (13) South Carolina (-7.5) at Atlanta: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Shane Beamer randomly just accepted an illegal formation penalty on a punt and forced Va Tech to kick again

Instead of getting the ball on the 25, we got this

Incredible scenes in Mercedes Benz Stadium pic.twitter.com/Brb0IiZsg0

— Nick Perkins (@NickyPerkss) August 31, 2025

LaNorris Sellers played a solid game, but the story of this was the South Carolina defense. It made Kyron Drones look like JaMarcus Russell with the Raiders.

(6) Notre Dame (-2.5) at (10) Miami (FL): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

MIAMI HAS NOTRE DAME'S NUMBER IN SOUTH FLORIDA 😤 pic.twitter.com/fwOeZnyeSK

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) September 1, 2025

I came out of this game thinking that I just watched two playoff teams. I didn't think either was a playoff team going into this one. CJ Carr played well in his Irish debut, but Miami's run defense was stellar.

Carson Beck's elbow is fine. How quickly some fans forget that Beck played several games like this at Georgia. We know who he is by now.

TCU (-2.5) at North Carolina: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The last time North Carolina lost a non-conference game by 27+ points, Bill Belichick’s girlfriend was in middle school.

It was only 11 years ago, but still.

— Robert Behrens (@rcb05) September 2, 2025

Kevorian Barnes is going to be a problem. Josh Hoover is nothing flashy, but he keeps getting results. I'm not going to overreact too much. The hype on North Carolina was unfounded, and most of us knew it. We'll just say that TCU looked really good and go from there.

College Football Betting Season Results

Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. After a perfect Week 0, I had a strong Thursday in Week 1. I didn't miss a game until Nebraska (figures). I closed strong after a rough stretch on Friday to finish the week at 26-18. That puts me at 30-18 on the season. I'm happy with that start!

The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.

1. 3-1 (3-1) = 2
2. 11-7 (12-7) = 10
3. 6-6 (7-6) = 3
4. 5-2 (6-2) = 16
5. 1-2 (2-2) = 0

After gaining 14 points in Week 0, I gained another 17 points in Week 1. I'm up 31 points on the season, but I'm still down overall. How far? I don't know. I can't seem to find all of my 2019 and 2020 articles, but I'm trying!

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