March Madness Busts: Five Teams On Upset Watch In The 2025 NCAA Tournament

March 17, 2025

Dominick's 2025 NCAA March Madness tournament busts. Which teams are on upset alert early in the 2025 NCAA tournament? Read the college basketball picks and analysis.

There are always teams who get upset in March. Most of them are unforeseen, but not all of them. After all, the tournament is called March Madness. There's nothing worse than taking a bold stance on a team to reach an Elite 8 or Final Four just for the squad to get upset early, so it's always key to take a look at potential NCAA tournament busts ahead of filling out your brackets.

Certain teams are put into a bad spot by way of the draw. Others put themselves in a bad place with their play entering the tournament. We are going to look at these teams before the start of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to uncover potential betting and bracket avoids.

With a 68-team tournament, anything can and will happen. However, only the top six seed lines can truly be considered busts, so we'll focus on those in this piece. Below, let's dive into the top bust candidates. For detailed March Madness strategy, check out our "How to Win March Madness Brackets Complete Guide." This guide comes with general information, strategy tips, and historical data.

(6) Ole Miss Rebels - NCAA Tournament Bust

There are two things we know about Ole Miss. They will do anything they can to win and always come up a yard or a basket short. The Rebels brought in Chris Beard, a talented yet flawed coach, to revamp the basketball team. In a difficult SEC, he managed to do so in 2024-25 getting the Rebels to a 22-11 record. That's good for a sixth-place conference finish.

The Senior out of Edmond, Oklahoma, Sean Pedulla, led the team in scoring at 14.9 points per game. But this was a balanced team as they did not rank in the top 50 in team offense or team defense on the season. It is also not a good rebounding team as the Rebels' leading rebounder, Malik Dia, only brought down 5.7 boards per game.

Both the lack of offense and the lack of rebounding could be the downfall of Ole Miss in March. The Rebels were over-seeded, and this could work in their favor. Had they been seeded correctly on the eight or nine lines, a matchup against a one seed would be in store come the second round. As it were, a first-round game against either San Diego State or North Carolina would be followed up by a match against a dangerous three-seed in Iowa State. Good luck getting out of Milwaukee.

𝐌𝐀𝐓𝐂𝐇𝐔𝐏 𝐈𝐍𝐅𝐎 ⤵️

San Diego State and North Carolina play in Dayton on Tuesday night. We will face the winner in Milwaukee on Friday at 3:05 p.m. CT on TNT!https://t.co/jwPht5bbdS | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/8PWAo9uBpf

— Ole Miss Men’s Basketball (@OleMissMBB) March 17, 2025

(2) St. John’s Red Storm - NCAA Tournament Bust

Rick Pitino has done remarkable things in his two seasons back in the Big East.

WE’RE HEADED TO PROVIDENCE‼️#RedStorm #WeAreStJohns pic.twitter.com/rdhliMZ9YK

— St. John's Men’s Basketball (@StJohnsBBall) March 16, 2025

After leaving New Rochelle, NY, and Iona University to return to New York City, many were skeptical of what he could do. After missing the tournament in year one under Pitino, St. John’s rose to a No. 2 seed. This is largely due to the Red Storm winning the Big East regular season crown, followed by winning the Big East tournament, the team's first in 25 years.

St. John’s, who ranks No. 31 nationally in defense and allows 65.9 points per game, should have an easy time with Omaha in Round 1. The difficulty comes in Round 2 with a game against either an underperforming yet talented Kansas or a talented Arkansas squad that fought through the gauntlet of the SEC to garner a 10 seed. Both opponents have the offensive potential and the defensive chops to hold St. John’s down and win the game.

Coaches Bill Self and John Calipari will make sure their teams are ready to go. And if the Red Storm end up encountering the Razorbacks, imagine how much both Pitino and Calipari would love to with against another former Kentucky Wildcats coach.

(4) Texas A&M Aggies - NCAA Tournament Bust

Buzz Williams has a talented team in College Station. The Aggies showed they have the ability and defensive talent to beat anyone when they defeated the Auburn Tigers. The Aggies did so by grabbing 24 offensive rebounds in the game, a stat where Texas A&M ranks No. 1 in the country. If they can continue gaining a rebounding edge in the tournament, this could be a foolish pick. On the other hand, this has been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season, finishing the season by losing five of their last seven games after winning their previous five.

A dangerous matchup awaits in the first round with the Yale Bulldogs. While many will think an Ivy League opponent is a pushover, the Bulldogs are different. They have dominated the league this season and are also top-25, averaging 81.4 points per game.

Texas A&M is DANCING! #MarchMadness @aggiembk pic.twitter.com/3y3LoQQ7HM

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2025

If Texas A&M can get by the Bulldogs, a game against either Michigan or UC-San Diego awaits in the second round. Both teams can beat the Aggies or any team on any day.

(3) Texas Tech Red Raiders - NCAA Tournament Bust

The Red Raiders started the season as hot as any team in the country. But they fizzled down the end, leading to a three-seed rather than a potential one or two-seed. A team normally known for hard-nosed defense, Texas Tech became a scoring juggernaut in the 2024-25 season, averaging 80.9 points. That was good for No. 28 nationally.

The Red Raiders are led on the court by sophomore forward JT Toppin. The 6-foot-9 player from Dallas leads the team with 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds per game during the regular season. He can lead this team to a deep run. A run much like the Red Raiders had before losing to Virginia in the title game in 2019.

However, if it happens this time, it will be due to an offensive explosion, especially in the potential and dangerous second-round matchup against six-seeded Missouri, a Tigers team ranked No. 9 in the nation on offense, averaging 84.5 points per game on their own.

Wichita, here we come. pic.twitter.com/hszEbXOxxy

— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) March 16, 2025

(3) Wisconsin Badgers - NCAA Tournament Bust

After finally finding an offense for the first time in seemingly forever, the Badgers of Wisconsin stumbled in the Big Ten final, only scoring 53 points against a Michigan squad that allowed 71.8 points per game, good for 176th of 364 teams in the nation. It would be easy to say neither team cared about this game. Both were safe in the tournament. But after years of disappointment, the Badgers wanted to win the Big Ten title but failed to show up.

They might get away with this in a first-round matchup against Montana. However, in a potential second-round matchup against a BYU team averaging 81.0 points per game, this type of showing will mean an early departure.

Down but not out.

Bigger things are ahead pic.twitter.com/Y79NtQrnJL

— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) March 16, 2025

More NCAA Tournament Bust Candidates

• Marquette Golden Eagles
• Oregon Ducks

More March Madness Analysis