X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Overvalued Outfielders To Avoid In Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

Starling Marte - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Jamie identifies five outfielders to avoid in fantasy baseball drafts for the 2024 season. These overvalued hitters are set to underwhelm at their current ADPs.

We're well into fantasy baseball draft season. Most people who have partaken in a draft (mock or real) will have identified where they need to take their favorite players before someone deprives them of that joy. However, as in all drafts, you'll never be able to get all your favorites and will need to pivot to alternatives.

While having sleepers and undervalued players on your wish list is important, knowing which players to avoid is equally important. Those who are being overvalued and ones that come with significant risk. It's those players we're looking at here; outfielders who are names to avoid in drafts.

These aren't players who should be ignored at all costs. They are players who have significant question marks, which leaves them very avoidable in drafts. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Without further ado, here are five outfielders to steer clear of in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 108

Thomas went from being a late-round flier to a 20/20 star last year. In 157 games, Thomas hit .268/.315/.468 with 28 homers, 86 RBI, 101 runs, and 20 stolen bases. With a line like that, you may think Thomas is a steal in drafts. However, there are significant concerns about his ability to replicate last year's numbers and regression is highly probable.

Before last season, Thomas had totaled 15 stolen bases in 275 MLB games. He was a beneficiary of the rule changes and while that won't change, opportunities might. His 682 plate appearances were the 24th most in baseball and something that might not be repeatable. Add that to his .255 xBA (expected batting average) and chances to steal bases are set to diminish.

Thomas also was pretty average regarding the quality of contact, as we can see from his Statcast profile. ATC projects him to hit .250/.309/.429 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 78 runs, and 15 stolen bases. That seems much more plausible than a repeat of 2023 given Thomas' underlying numbers. Those numbers are also similar to other outfielders going later (Daulton Varsho is a prime example with a ~213 ADP), making him a fade in drafts.

 

Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics

NFBC ADP: 121

Ruiz's elite speed is undeniable. If it wasn't for a month-long IL stint, he would likely have led the league in stolen bases. In 132 games, Ruiz hit .254/.309/.345 with five homers, 47 RBI, 47 runs, and 67 steals. There's no reason to believe the outfielder can't lead the league in steals, but he may not be afforded the opportunity to.

Following his return from a shoulder injury, Ruiz found himself starting fewer games with Lawrence Butler sharing duties in the outfield. He also spent significant time batting ninth in the A's lineup after ~10 weeks straight of hitting leadoff. Ruiz could slip straight back in at the top of the lineup and be an everyday player. No matter where he hits in the lineup, Oakland's offense isn't going to help him tally many RBI and runs.

The biggest issue with drafting Ruiz is that you're putting all your stolen base eggs in one basket. At least a large portion of them. Ruiz isn't helping in any other category, although he could reach double-digit homers. If something happens to him and he misses an extended period, you're not going to replace those steals from waivers. With steals up across the league, the need for one main source of stolen bases isn't worth it at this ADP.

 

Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP: 202

Nootbaar's plate discipline is elite. His 14.3% BB% ranked in the 95th percentile, his 17.1% Chase% in the 98th percentile, and 18.2% Whiff% in the 88th percentile. The problem is that hasn't translated into fantasy value in standard leagues. Last year, Nootbaar hit .261/.367/.418 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 74 runs, and 11 stolen bases (117 games).

If Nootbaar was able to stay on the field for the entire season, we'd be looking at things differently. However, three separate IL stints (for the thumb, back, and abdomen injuries) capped his value. While he doesn't project as an injury risk, we've also yet to see Nootbaar play more than 125 games in a season. That helps to explain why ATC projects him to play 122 games in 2024.

Nootbaar's strength in fantasy is also his weakness, which is he doesn't possess one standout skill (other than taking walks). His ability to get on base makes him an ideal leadoff candidate. Something he did in 68 games last year. However, his splits against RHP (right-handed pitching) and LHP mean that likely won't be in an everyday role (as shown below). Nootbaar might even find himself in a platoon.

Split PA AVG OBP SLG K% BB% wOBA ISO wRC+
vs. RHP 379 .271 .381 .454 16.9% 15.0% .362 .183 130
vs. LHP 124 .229 .323 .312 28.2% 12.1% .289 .083 81

Nootbaar is a solid OF5 option to take in the last couple of rounds as a well-balanced outfielder. He is not someone you'd want to take in the middle rounds, as his ADP suggests.

 

Starling Marte, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 224

While I'm not prepared to say Marte is completely done as a fantasy-viable outfielder, another season like 2023 will make me believe otherwise. In 86 games, Marte hit .248/.301/.324 with five homers, 28 RBI, 38 runs, and 24 stolen bases. We could just lazily double his numbers and believe that's what he can do over a full season. That would ignore the fact Marte is now 35 years old and cannot stay healthy.

After impressively managing to play 61 games in the shortened 2020 season, Marte's health has taken a dramatic decline. He's spent time on the IL in each of the last three seasons and has been dealing with a groin problem since 2022, which has required surgery. Over the last three seasons, Marte has averaged just 108 games. His ATC projection of playing 112 games seems fair.

Those projections don't paint a picture of someone with much fantasy value either. ATC projects Marte to hit .261/.321/.391 with 11 homers, 47 RBI, 59 runs, and 25 stolen bases. Outside of the steals, the outfielder isn't providing your team with any tangible benefit. Ongoing groin issues may prevent Marte from stealing that many bases as well. Age, health, and a lack of production all combine to make him avoidable in drafts.

 

Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies

NFBC ADP: 270

Bryant's decline in fantasy relevancy has been pretty dramatic. He entered 2022 with a ~76 ADP. In 2023, he slipped to having a ~123 ADP. That fall is down to Bryant's lack of being healthy since signing with the Rockies. He's only managed 122 games over the last two years and his production has been lackluster when he's played. In his two years in Colorado, Bryant has 15 homers, 45 RBI, 64 runs, and no steals with a .259/.335/.404 slash line.

Of course, his struggles on the field will in part be down to his struggles to stay healthy. If there was just one major injury that Bryant was overcoming, it might be more realistic to believe he can stay healthy. However, he has had six different IL stints in the last two years. His recent comments suggest he regrets signing with the Rockies, which would normally signal the beginning of the end of his time in Colorado.

The problem with that is Bryant has five more years on his contract. Given his health and production struggles, no team is going to burden themselves with that contract. A change of scenery isn't going to cure what ails. Even if a trade was likely, without discarding his recent fragilities, Bryant isn't someone worthwhile rostering in anything but the deepest fantasy leagues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jon Runyan

Limited During Minicamp
Saquon Barkley

Feels Great Physically
Justin Simmons

Panthers Have Talked With Justin Simmons
Jordan Addison

Trial Date Set for July 15
New York Jets

Jets Sign Kingsley Jonathan, Marquis Hayes
Jarace Walker

Remains Sidelined for Game 5
Justin Verlander

Returning to the Rotation on Wednesday
Tony Finau

Finishes Tied For 38th at U.S. Open
Bud Cauley

Misses The Cut at U.S. Open
Cameron Young

Finishes Tied For Fourth at U.S. Open
J.J. Spaun

Wins U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 12th at U.S. Open
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at U.S. Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 42nd at U.S. Open
Vershon Lee

Vikings Ink Undrafted Offensive Lineman Vershon Lee
Luke Clanton

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
San Francisco 49ers

C.J. West Signs Rookie Deal with San Fran
Jaylen Warren

Training to Handle Larger Workload
Giancarlo Stanton

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Will Campbell

Ends Minicamp as Top Left Tackle
Sam Cosmi

Making Good Progress From Torn ACL
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Adonai Mitchell

Impresses at Minicamp
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Bradley Chubb

Fully Healed, Looking Disruptive
Jonnu Smith

Contract Talks "Still Fluid"
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF