Overvalued Outfielders To Avoid In Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

March 7, 2024

Jamie identifies five outfielders to avoid in fantasy baseball drafts for the 2024 season. These overvalued hitters are set to underwhelm at their current ADPs.

We're well into fantasy baseball draft season. Most people who have partaken in a draft (mock or real) will have identified where they need to take their favorite players before someone deprives them of that joy. However, as in all drafts, you'll never be able to get all your favorites and will need to pivot to alternatives.

While having sleepers and undervalued players on your wish list is important, knowing which players to avoid is equally important. Those who are being overvalued and ones that come with significant risk. It's those players we're looking at here; outfielders who are names to avoid in drafts.

These aren't players who should be ignored at all costs. They are players who have significant question marks, which leaves them very avoidable in drafts. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Without further ado, here are five outfielders to steer clear of in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.

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Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 108

Thomas went from being a late-round flier to a 20/20 star last year. In 157 games, Thomas hit .268/.315/.468 with 28 homers, 86 RBI, 101 runs, and 20 stolen bases. With a line like that, you may think Thomas is a steal in drafts. However, there are significant concerns about his ability to replicate last year's numbers and regression is highly probable.

Before last season, Thomas had totaled 15 stolen bases in 275 MLB games. He was a beneficiary of the rule changes and while that won't change, opportunities might. His 682 plate appearances were the 24th most in baseball and something that might not be repeatable. Add that to his .255 xBA (expected batting average) and chances to steal bases are set to diminish.

Thomas also was pretty average regarding the quality of contact, as we can see from his Statcast profile. ATC projects him to hit .250/.309/.429 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, 78 runs, and 15 stolen bases. That seems much more plausible than a repeat of 2023 given Thomas' underlying numbers. Those numbers are also similar to other outfielders going later (Daulton Varsho is a prime example with a ~213 ADP), making him a fade in drafts.

Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics

NFBC ADP: 121

Ruiz's elite speed is undeniable. If it wasn't for a month-long IL stint, he would likely have led the league in stolen bases. In 132 games, Ruiz hit .254/.309/.345 with five homers, 47 RBI, 47 runs, and 67 steals. There's no reason to believe the outfielder can't lead the league in steals, but he may not be afforded the opportunity to.

Following his return from a shoulder injury, Ruiz found himself starting fewer games with Lawrence Butler sharing duties in the outfield. He also spent significant time batting ninth in the A's lineup after ~10 weeks straight of hitting leadoff. Ruiz could slip straight back in at the top of the lineup and be an everyday player. No matter where he hits in the lineup, Oakland's offense isn't going to help him tally many RBI and runs.

The biggest issue with drafting Ruiz is that you're putting all your stolen base eggs in one basket. At least a large portion of them. Ruiz isn't helping in any other category, although he could reach double-digit homers. If something happens to him and he misses an extended period, you're not going to replace those steals from waivers. With steals up across the league, the need for one main source of stolen bases isn't worth it at this ADP.

Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals

NFBC ADP: 202

Nootbaar's plate discipline is elite. His 14.3% BB% ranked in the 95th percentile, his 17.1% Chase% in the 98th percentile, and 18.2% Whiff% in the 88th percentile. The problem is that hasn't translated into fantasy value in standard leagues. Last year, Nootbaar hit .261/.367/.418 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 74 runs, and 11 stolen bases (117 games).

If Nootbaar was able to stay on the field for the entire season, we'd be looking at things differently. However, three separate IL stints (for the thumb, back, and abdomen injuries) capped his value. While he doesn't project as an injury risk, we've also yet to see Nootbaar play more than 125 games in a season. That helps to explain why ATC projects him to play 122 games in 2024.

Nootbaar's strength in fantasy is also his weakness, which is he doesn't possess one standout skill (other than taking walks). His ability to get on base makes him an ideal leadoff candidate. Something he did in 68 games last year. However, his splits against RHP (right-handed pitching) and LHP mean that likely won't be in an everyday role (as shown below). Nootbaar might even find himself in a platoon.

Nootbaar is a solid OF5 option to take in the last couple of rounds as a well-balanced outfielder. He is not someone you'd want to take in the middle rounds, as his ADP suggests.

Starling Marte, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 224

While I'm not prepared to say Marte is completely done as a fantasy-viable outfielder, another season like 2023 will make me believe otherwise. In 86 games, Marte hit .248/.301/.324 with five homers, 28 RBI, 38 runs, and 24 stolen bases. We could just lazily double his numbers and believe that's what he can do over a full season. That would ignore the fact Marte is now 35 years old and cannot stay healthy.

After impressively managing to play 61 games in the shortened 2020 season, Marte's health has taken a dramatic decline. He's spent time on the IL in each of the last three seasons and has been dealing with a groin problem since 2022, which has required surgery. Over the last three seasons, Marte has averaged just 108 games. His ATC projection of playing 112 games seems fair.

Those projections don't paint a picture of someone with much fantasy value either. ATC projects Marte to hit .261/.321/.391 with 11 homers, 47 RBI, 59 runs, and 25 stolen bases. Outside of the steals, the outfielder isn't providing your team with any tangible benefit. Ongoing groin issues may prevent Marte from stealing that many bases as well. Age, health, and a lack of production all combine to make him avoidable in drafts.

Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies

NFBC ADP: 270

Bryant's decline in fantasy relevancy has been pretty dramatic. He entered 2022 with a ~76 ADP. In 2023, he slipped to having a ~123 ADP. That fall is down to Bryant's lack of being healthy since signing with the Rockies. He's only managed 122 games over the last two years and his production has been lackluster when he's played. In his two years in Colorado, Bryant has 15 homers, 45 RBI, 64 runs, and no steals with a .259/.335/.404 slash line.

Of course, his struggles on the field will in part be down to his struggles to stay healthy. If there was just one major injury that Bryant was overcoming, it might be more realistic to believe he can stay healthy. However, he has had six different IL stints in the last two years. His recent comments suggest he regrets signing with the Rockies, which would normally signal the beginning of the end of his time in Colorado.

Pressure. Expectations. The scrutiny of the public eye.

All these things have defined Kris Bryant’s baseball career, first with the Cubs and now, in a different way, with the Rockies.@SamBlum3 on Bryant's journey and his new expectations in Colorado ⤵️https://t.co/7x4OaFbGh4

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) February 29, 2024

The problem with that is Bryant has five more years on his contract. Given his health and production struggles, no team is going to burden themselves with that contract. A change of scenery isn't going to cure what ails. Even if a trade was likely, without discarding his recent fragilities, Bryant isn't someone worthwhile rostering in anything but the deepest fantasy leagues.

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