RADIO
Michael Florio's fantasy football sneaky starts, pivot plays, and post-waiver waiver pickups for Week 8 of the NFL season. Start 'em as under-the-radar fantasy sleepers this upcoming week.
We are now officially halfway through the fantasy football regular season so this is crunch time for many of you as you are fighting to make the playoffs, or maybe secure the first-round bye. If you are sitting pretty, you can take a long-term approach and worry about making your lineup as strong as possible down the stretch. Those sitting under .500 need to take more of a week-to-week approach, even if that means getting away from a struggling big-name player.
A week after six teams were on a bye, there are no teams off this week. More balance would be appreciated by the fantasy football community - but the good thing, at least for Week 8, is that it should be much easier to set your lineup.
Injuries and tough matchups are the only reasons you should have to potentially replace someone in your lineup. Still, some of you need sneaky starts or pivot options so you’ve come to the right place!
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Quarterback Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options in case, Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, or Jimmy Garoppolo, don’t play or you don’t like your QB's matchup…
Kenny Pickett has not shown much upside yet, but that is partially on him and partially on his schedule. He has faced the Niners, Browns, Texans, and Ravens – some of the toughest QB matchups in the league. He has topped 15 fantasy points in his other two starts showing he can put up solid numbers in the right matchup. He gets a better matchup this week, going up against the Jaguars who have allowed the second-most passing yards this season. They’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy PPG to QBs as well. Pickett, who has his full allotment of weapons again, is in play as a streamer.
Huge credit to Kenny Pickett for getting this ball off as accurately as he did.
Rams bring pressure. Steelers have it blocked up. Donald manages to push the LG into Pickett as he's releasing the ball. Not an easy throw. pic.twitter.com/b1Sm2wzSbu
— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) October 24, 2023
Desmond Ridder has averaged 18.7 fantasy PPG over his last three games. That is despite having three fumbles last week, including one that was inches away from being a second rushing touchdown. He has two rushing scores in that three-week span and that one would have made it three. He has also topped 250 passing yards in all three and twice topped 300. He has notoriously been better at home than on the road, but the Titans are not a matchup to avoid. They already were much better against the run than the pass and they just traded their former All-Pro safety Kevin Byard. Ridder is a streaming option this week.
Sam Howell put up a dud last week against the Giants, but he has topped 18 fantasy points in four of his last six games. His down weeks are very low, but there is an upside there. Especially this week against the Eagles. He scored 19.6 fantasy points throwing for 290 yards and a touchdown with a season-high 40 rushing yards against Philly in Week 4. The Eagles have also allowed the 10th-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season. Howell is in play as a streaming option this week.
Running Back Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options if Kyren Williams and Zack Moss don't play…
Kareem Hunt played 26 percent of snaps, right around the same as Pierre Strong Jr. last week. However, Hunt out carried Strong 10-8, was the primary back in the passing game, and has been the Browns' red zone back even before the Jerome Ford injury. He has a tough matchup this week against the Seahawks, but volume keeps him in play. Especially at running back, which thins out fast. Hunt is in play as an RB2 this week, while Strong is a deeper flex option.
Roschon Johnson has cleared concussion protocol and will be good to go this week on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers. It could be a potential coming-out stage for the rookie, who is a very talented runner. The Bears like to mix in two running backs, often having them share drives, usually with the lead option playing two of every three drives. So do not expect D’Onta Foreman to completely go away or anything, but Johnson will have a role and he is playing as a fantasy sleeper this week. Especially if the Bears are in catchup mode, as he is the better pass-catching back of the two.
The last time we saw Chuba Hubbard he was manning the Panthers backfield all by himself. With Miles Sanders sidelined, he posted 90 yards and a touchdown, scoring 16 fantasy points. It was more than Sanders has scored in all but one game this season. He will go back to sharing the backfield with Sanders, but head coach Frank Reich has said they will be a committee and usage could vary from week to week. That is not great for fantasy purposes but if you are diving deep this week, Hubbard is in play against the Texans who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy PPG to RBs.
Devin Singletary outsnapped Dameon Pierce in Week 6 playing 52 percent to Pierce's 35 percent. They split carries basically down the middle (13 for Pierce, 12 for Singletary) and Singletary was the back used in the passing game. It could be a one-week blip, or perhaps we see more of a committee coming out of the bye. They get the Panthers this week who have issued the third-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns despite already having their bye. They allow the second-most fantasy PPG and 5.3 yards per carry to backs, the second-most in the NFL. Singletary is a sneaky option and even if you do not start him, he is worth a flier on your bench in case the uptick in usage sticks.
#Texans Week 6 RB Usage
- Devin Singletary: 52% snaps, 12 carries, 14 routes, 2 targets (62 yds)
- Dameon Pierce: 35% snaps, 13 carries, no targets (34 yds)This is concerning for Dameon Pierce
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 15, 2023
Wide Receiver Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options in case Deebo Samuel doesn't play…
Michael Thomas brings one of the safest receiver floors in the game. He has topped nine fantasy points in every game this season. The issue is the ceiling has also been low, but this could be a week when we see his upside. The Colts run zone defense at the highest rate in the NFL (87 percent). Thomas leads the Saints in receiving yards against zone coverage. He leads their receivers in passer rating when targeted and catch rate against it as well. He is a sneaky start this week, as is his teammate Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed is the opposite of Thomas in that he brings a very high ceiling, but a low floor. Both are pivot options in a good matchup.
Kendrick Bourne has topped 16 fantasy points in two straight games and three times this season. He has dominated against zone coverage with 85 percent of his yards this season and a third of his touchdowns coming against it. This week he gets the Dolphins who use zone above league average. Plus, there's a good chance the Patriots have to put up points to keep up with the Dolphins' high-powered offense. Bourne is not a must-start, but as far as pivot options go, he is a strong one.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is out = good news for Kendrick Bourne.
24% target share on snaps without Smith-Schuster vs. 16% with JJSS.
Finishes this year in games w/ JJSS under 50% of routes: WR5, WR47, WR9
Tough matchup vs. Bills but a solid WR3 today.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 22, 2023
Tank Dell missed a game due to injury and then had the bye so he could have been thrown back on the waiver wire in some leagues. Dell has been up and down this season but he has topped 20 fantasy points twice already. He has faired better against man than zone and the Panthers run a lot of zone, but he is still in play as a high-upside pivot option this week.
Jameson Williams continues to see a slow uptick in usage. Last week he played 46 percent of the snaps and ran 26 routes, the third most among Lions receivers. He also saw six targets, second among Lions receivers. He didn’t catch any of them, but he did nearly catch what would have been a very impressive over-the-shoulder deep ball. This is what life with Williams is like right now. Two weeks ago he caught the long touchdown, last week he didn’t. But the more he is on the field, the more chances he has to go boom.
Tight End Pivot Options for Fantasy Football
Pivot options in case Dawson Knox doesn’t play or you need a streaming option…
Taysom Hill finished as the TE6 last week and has been operating as the lead tight end for the Saints. He was targeted five times, catching four of them for 50 yards. He also ran the ball five times for 18 yards and a touchdown – he was their preferred short-yardage runner last week, not Jamaal Williams. He has topped 12 fantasy points in two straight games. Now he gets the Colts who have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends. As long as Juwan Johnson is out this week, Hill is in play.
Dalton Schultz started the year very slowly but do not forget what he did in the two games before the Texans bye. He finished as the TE6 and TE2, respectively, scoring over 16 fantasy points in each and nearly 20 in the first one. He has now scored a touchdown in three straight and been over 13 fantasy points in all three of those. He may be a little touchdown-dependent, but you can do a lot worse than Schultz at tight end this week.
Trey McBride was already starting to overtake Zach Ertz as the Cardinals' lead tight end, but with Ertz now sidelined, all the work can go to McBride. Ertz is sixth in tight end targets this season and that is with splitting work with McBride the past two weeks. There is certainly a lot of volume up for grabs now, especially if the Cardinals continue to play from behind. Plus, there is more upside down the road as Kyler Murray is nearing closer and closer to returning. McBride is a pivot option this week and a tight end you want on your roster moving forward.
#Cardinals TE Usage the last two weeks
- Trey McBride: 38 routes, 11 targets, 7 catches, 91 yards, 89.6 rating when targeted, 64% catch rate
- Zach Ertz: 43 routes, 9 targets, 5 catches, 41 yds, 27.8 rating when targeted, 56% catch rate
Changing of the guard happening!
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 23, 2023
Michael Mayer has taken over as the lead tight end for the Raiders. He played 72 percent of snaps and ran 22 routes for the Raiders last week. That led to him getting four targets, catching two for 13 yards. The floor is not very safe, but there is an upside considering the matchup. Mayer will face the Lions, who have allowed the second-most yards and are tied for second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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