Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - MLB First-Half Hits and Misses

July 18, 2022

Connelly examines previous fantasy baseball pitcher studs and duds articles to review buy-low and sell-high candidates he got correctly and incorrectly for Week 15.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I have selected one advanced metric, chosen two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyzed what those values may mean for future performance. I have covered a host of different metrics so far and have made plenty of buy-low and sell-high claims.

With the All-Star break upon us, it is time for me to review some of my takes and analyses from the first half of the season to see what I've gotten right and what I've gotten wrong. The goal of this series is to help fantasy managers make shrewd roster choices, so I have to hold myself accountable for missed conclusions in addition to taking credit for my correct ones.

The first half of the season has gone by quickly, so I am going to stop briefly and reflect on how things have gone. Let's take a look at some of my biggest studs and duds hits and misses from this article series so far as you all enjoy the All-Star break!

First-Half Hits for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 17, 2022.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
3-7, 4.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 25.8% Strikeout Rate

Tyler Mahle (shoulder) made his first appearance in this series in Week 6 as a BABIP Dud and then again in Week 12 as a wOBACON Dud. Each time I came to the conclusion that Mahle was a strong buy-low candidate, and, as we will see, I think his continuing performance has supported that. It is true that Mahle is currently on the injured list with a right shoulder strain, but he is expected to return shortly after the All-Star break. Assuming he does return healthy, this may actually play to the advantage of fantasy managers looking to buy Mahle for the second half of the season. Let's take a look at my evidence.

Mahle had a poor 2-4 record with a 5.89 ERA when I first wrote about him in mid-May. He had a bloated .324 BABIP despite having a decent batted-ball profile and SIERA. Between Weeks 6 and 12 (when I wrote about him next), Mahle went 0-2 but compiled a 3.48 ERA with a much-improved .296 BABIP and 3.44 SIERA. Despite the improvement, I wrote about him again in Week 12 because his season ERA still sat at 4.57 and his .379 wOBACON left something to be desired. He has only made two starts since, but he went 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA, continuing the positive regression trend.

Mahle has pitched to his underlying metrics since I have written about him and his above-average Statcast profile further provides support as to how he has actually pitched this season. His overall 4.48 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are much better than the first month or so of the season, but his 3.18 xERA and 3.85 SIERA suggest that he has further room for improvement. The Reds do not sound concerned with Mahle returning to their rotation healthy, but this may be the last opportunity for fantasy managers to buy low on Mahle before his numbers fully catch up to his underlying numbers.

Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners
8-6, 3.54 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 28.7% Strikeout Rate

I wrote about Robbie Ray in Week 10 as an xERA Dud. In mid-June, I determined that Ray's batted-ball profile had yielded unreasonably poor results and that his high swinging-strike rate made him a worthwhile buy-low candidate, especially given how early he had been drafted. Ray has made seven starts since, and he has compiled a stellar 1.36 ERA while maintaining a strong 51.7% swinging-strike rate. What helped turn things around for Ray?

The main thing that stands out to me is a key change in Ray's pitch arsenal. Prior to when I wrote about him, he relied primarily on a four-seam fastball. This pitch has yielded his worst batted-ball numbers with a 90.5 MPH average exit velocity and a 24-degree launch angle. Since I wrote about him, Ray's four-seam use has declined in favor of a sinker, and he has relied on his sinker and slider roughly equally. His slider's batted-ball profile of an 89.9 MPH average exit velocity and an eight-degree launch angle have been strong, and his 85.7 MPH average exit velocity and a minus five-degree launch angle on his sinker have been excellent.

The introduction of a sinker has helped improve Ray's batted-ball profile, and his continued reliance on his slider has kept his strikeout numbers up. It may not have been the boldest call to say to keep trust in last season's CY Young winner, buy Ray has had a turbulent career and fantasy managers were likely nervous at the time. Hopefully, some fantasy managers were able to capitalize on those nerves and get Ray on their rosters for the rest of the season.

First-Half Misses for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 17, 2022.

Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
3-5, 4.37 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19.6% Strikeout Rate

Zach Eflin (knee) made my Week 4 article as an exit velocity change Stud. He was doing a great job of avoiding hard contact and had the results to show for it. I concluded that Eflin would see more strikeouts come his way and would continue to be a fantasy contributor. Well, since that time, Eflin compiled a 2-4 record with a 4.84 ERA, a 20.0% strikeout rate, and is not on the IL with a bruised knee.

The interesting thing is that Eflin has maintained his strong batted-ball profile since I wrote about him and his .287 BABIP is almost identical to the .288 BABIP he compiled in the first month of the season. The strikeouts haven't really changed, and Eflin has never been much of a strikeout contributor.

There wasn't much else that stood out to me in Eflin's underlying profile in Week 4, and there still isn't, which makes it difficult to gauge what type of results he will generate when he returns from the IL. It is possible that Eflin will return healthy and ready to pitch well, but his career numbers do not make him an exciting fantasy option. I should have waited for more conclusive evidence before making a fantasy decision on Eflin.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
7-6, 3.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 24.2% Strikeout Rate

Triston McKenzie was in an early edition of this series, appearing in Week 5's launch angle Duds. At the time, McKenzie had a stellar 2.76 ERA despite a very poor batted-ball profile. At the time, I made the "pretty straightforward" call that McKenzie was a "strong sell-high candidate." Fantasy managers who listened to me will have missed out on a 5-4 record with a 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 23.5% strikeout rate since. This one has definitely been a miss for me so far, but I am still holding out hope that it may become a hit in the second half.

The interesting thing here is that McKenzie has simply continued to defy his underlying stats, rather than improving them. McKenzie has continued to allow a middling contact rate of 75.6% with a high average exit velocity of 90.5 MPH, a hard-hit rate of 40.5%, and a launch angle of 20.5 degrees. This still looks like a recipe for negative regression to me, and McKenzie's minuscule .200 BABIP and higher ERA indicators of 3.95 SIERa and 4.20 xFIP indicate that he has still been getting lucky.

I am not ashamed to admit when my predictions prove to be false, but all the evidence that drew me to my initial McKenzie prediction is still there. I am glad that fantasy managers have continued to see good results from him, but I do worry that could change at some point this season.

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