Jarred Kelenic Still Isn't Ready for Prime Time

May 3, 2022

Seattle Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic is struggling in 2022 and could be a fantasy bust. Vince DiSilvio evaluates Kelenic's fantasy baseball value for redraft and dynasty.

Jarred Kelenic was one of the most exciting prospects we had seen in a long time. The hype was right up there with the likes of anybody over the last decade and fantasy managers couldn't wait to jump on him when he was called up toward the end of 2021.  But that excitement has not translated to results so far, not even close.

The 22-year-old outfielder has really struggled through his first 400 or so at-bats in the show, and it might be time to say that he just isn't ready for big-league pitching yet. I’m going to dive in and see what about Kelenic’s game has resulted in the underwhelming start to his career. Is there something easily fixable or is it just too soon for him to go up against the best in the world?

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Plate Discipline

The number one reason that Kelenic (and many other young players) is struggling comes down to plate discipline. He has simply not gotten used to big-league pitching yet, and it really does show in the numbers. The 40.8 strikeout rate (first percentile) is the first thing that jumps out to me. While this is just 2022, which is a small sample size, his 2021 K% of 28.1 (11^th percentile) is nothing to write home about. He is either too eager or is simply having trouble identifying pitches, which would explain his 30.9 out-of-strike zone swing percentage. Kelenic’s BB% is currently sitting at 8.5%, good for the 51^st percentile in baseball, so not nearly as bad. That being said, hovering right around the league average is not what we are looking for from the former top-10 prospect. His 0.21 BB/K ratio is in the top 25 worst in MLB.

Plate discipline is the foundation for good hitting.  With a few exceptions, there are not many great hitters that don’t have good plate discipline. The strikeouts are not only bad for points leagues right now, but the rate at which Kelenic is striking out is the biggest reason why he hasn’t lived up to expectations. It’s really starting to look like he just doesn’t belong in the big leagues at the moment, and this becomes even more apparent when looking at how Kelenic fares against big-league pitching, specifically against breaking balls.

Breaking Balls

Kelenic has had a really tough time against breaking pitches through his first 448 plate appearances. This quick chart should give an idea of just how tough of a time it has been.

It’s clear that Kelenic is just overmatched by breaking pitches and opposing pitchers aren’t going to let up until he turns it around. For his MLB career, 36.2% of pitches he has seen have been breaking pitches, compared to 42.8% fastballs (only 18 more actual pitches). The batting average, slugging, wOBA, and expected stats are self-explanatory, there really isn’t much to say that isn’t said by the numbers themselves. However, the decline from 2021 to 2022 is not very encouraging as well. Hitting has been down throughout the league, sure, but that WHIFF % jump has nothing to do with altered baseballs and humidors. You’d hope to see at least a slight jump after struggling in 2021, but so far, Kelenic seems to show no improvement over the offseason.

Quality of Contact

So we know Kelenic has had trouble identifying big-league pitching. But what about when he does make contact? Well, his max exit velocity is 114 mph, which puts him in the top-10 in baseball. His barrel % isn’t terrible either, it's 8.3% so far in 2022, which is just above league average (54^th percentile). The raw talent is there, but the consistency is not.

Kelenic’s average exit velocity is 85.2 mph, good for the 11^th percentile in the league. To go with that, his hard-hit % is 30.6, good for the 17^th percentile. While again this is a small sample, his hard-hit % was 39.2 in 2021, again trending in the wrong direction.

What to Expect

Don’t get me wrong, Jarred Kelenic is a very exciting prospect. He has great raw power and physical tools and has shown a great approach to hitting almost everywhere he has been. It’s also important to remember that he is just 22 years old. We may have gotten spoiled seeing the likes of Juan Soto and Wander Franco jump right into the big leagues and handle pitching like they always have. Not everybody is Juan Soto or Wander Franco though, and that’s okay.

Kelenic is still a big-time dynasty asset, and now is not the time to move him if you own him. When it comes to 2022, I find it hard to see a turnaround that will justify a roster spot anytime soon. He’s been used primarily against righties, only seeing 15 plate appearances against lefties so far in 2022. In those 15 appearances, he has two singles and seven strikeouts. He doesn’t get the opportunity and won’t anytime soon, especially for a Mariners team that went out and got guys like Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to compete for a playoff spot now. Don’t forget about Kyle Lewis as well. The 2020 AL Rookie of the Year will be back from an injury at some point and will be another barrier to playing time for Kelenic when he does.

Kelenic is very talented, and while his average likely won't be too high, I could still see 20 HRs and around a .700 OPS if he improves his walk rate and keeps barreling the ball. Still, that is a best-case scenario right now. Kelenic has a lot to work through, and whether that work comes in the majors or in the minors, it shouldn’t be happening as a member of your fantasy team.

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