The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 2

April 18, 2022

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 2 of the 2022 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Last week was more of a snapshot regarding players who should be monitored in the early stages of the year, with injuries or playing time concerns. We're now building a better picture of matchups and teams' lineups to help our decision-making. I'm still reluctant to cast off a pitcher for a couple of so-so outings or a hitter who is homerless after eight games, but there are still roster decisions needing to be made.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone you drafted in the sixth round. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. But for now, try and stay patient. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me at Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Worth Close Monitoring for Dropping and Replacing

Blake Snell - SP, San Diego Padres - 89% rostered

Snell was placed on the IL Friday with an adductor strain. A frustrating start to what many hoped would be a bounceback season for Snell. He had a similar injury towards the end of last season and missed around three weeks. So hopefully, we see him back on the mound in early May.

Last year's 4.20 ERA in 128.2 IP appears unsightly, but his underlying numbers were better. Snell had a 3.74 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA, although his 4.86 xERA paints a different picture. He maintained his excellent strikeout numbers, putting up a 30.9% K% (89th percentile) but had control problems with a 12.5% BB% (10th percentile).

Snell did finish the year strongly to give us hope he could return to somewhere near his Cy Young award-winning form. His final eight starts (44.1 IP) combined for a 1.83 ERA with 65 strikeouts (39.4% K%) and 14 walks (8.5% BB%).

Verdict - Snell had an ADP of ~117 this offseason, generally as an SP3. His strikeout numbers are such, just a slight improvement in his walk rate can lead to a sub-3.80 ERA. If you have an IL spot, he's certainly worthy of using it and should be stashed in all formats. If news breaks that he will miss a significant amount of time, we can revisit that.

Michael Conforto - OF, Free Agent - 40% rostered

Conforto continues to find himself unemployed and appears to be the biggest victim of the MLB lockout. The concern is we've yet to hear any news of teams contacting Conforto recently and if he signs in the next week, it'll come somewhat out of left-field (pun intended).

Even if Conforto signs with a team, he's not had a Spring Training to get up to speed, although I'm sure he's kept himself in game shape. That's still no substitution for facing live MLB pitching, even in a preseason environment.

He's probably not been helped by coming off a down year, in which he hit .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers, 55 RBI, 52 runs, and one steal in 125 games. Between 2017 and 2020, Conforto played 467 games, with 97 homers, 273 RBI, 280 runs, and 15 stolen bases with a .265/.369/.495 line.

Verdict - In deeper leagues, Conforto could still be a nice stash if you can afford a dead roster spot right now. He's more valuable in OBP leagues, given he's got a career of 12.3% BB%. His fantasy value will be significantly dependent on where he ends up. Considering he'll likely need at least a week after signing to get up to speed, in shallow leagues, there are probably better options available on waivers right now.

Alex Kirilloff - 1B/OF, Minnesota Twins - 44% rostered

Kirilloff was placed on the IL earlier this week with wrist soreness and inflammation. Whilst that doesn't sound particularly great for anyone, it's the same wrist which Kirilloff had season-ending surgery on last July. Kirilloff has stated the pain he's experiencing now is “definitely similar” to last year's.

It's difficult to speculate on how long Kirilloff will be sidelined but his quotes don't sound promising. "I’m determined to try to get to the bottom of this. I don’t want to be short-sighted about it." That sounds like something which will lead to a somewhat lengthy absence.

Verdict - If you have open IL spots for Kirilloff, you can put him on there but I don't think you should be expecting him to return anytime soon. If you don't have the luxury of an IL spot or a big bench, Kirilloff can be considered droppable when you're running this weekend's FAAB or waivers.

Hold For Now

Trent Grisham - OF, San Diego Padres - 81% rostered

After starting the Padres' opening game hitting ninth in the lineup, Grisham has since started the last nine games as the leadoff hitter but has struggled mightily. Entering the weekend, Grisham was hitting .135/.200/.162 but homered for the first time Saturday in a 1-for-4 effort.

His line now sits at .150/.227/.250 with one homer, one RBI, two runs, and no steals (no attempts). Hardly anything to get excited about but it's still early and Saturday's home run might spark his season into life.

After hitting 10 homers with 10 steals in the shortened 2020 season, Grisham couldn't build on things last year. In 132 games, he had 15 homers, 62 RBI, 61 runs, 13 steals, and a .242/.327/.413 line. He still had an ADP of ~144 this year and was being taken as the ~38th outfielder.

The fact the Padres are sticking with Grisham as their leadoff hitter should be enough to ensure he remains rostered in your fantasy league. He does strike out more than most (career 24.2% K%) so points leagues limit his value a bit. But in standard leagues, I'm not cutting Grisham yet.

Jarred Kelenic - OF, Seattle Mariners - 73% rostered

After flashing his potential in amongst some struggles last year, Kelenic started this season in the Majors and it appears to be the same story. In eight games, he's hitting .120/.207/.240 with one homer, three RBI, one run, and two steals. In 29 plate appearances, Kelenic has struck out 11 times.

The hope was Kelenic would be able to start this season well given he played 93 games for the Mariners last year but that hasn't been the case. He has been hitting in the bottom half of the lineup which won't change unless he's able to heat up at the plate.

Kyle Lewis is on track to return from the IL in early May which will leave the Mariners' outfield somewhat crowded. Kelenic and his rookie teammate (more on him later) are both candidates for demotion if they continue to struggle by the time Lewis returns. But Kelenic's upside is such that I'm not dropping him until the time comes he's no longer with the big league club.

Jo Adell - OF, Los Angeles Angels - 45% rostered

You could argue that Adell has so far been as advertised. He strikeouts a lot (50.0% K% so far). He hits the ball hard, with two homers in 26 plate appearances (and is in the 100th percentile for average exit velocity). And he's a below-average defensive outfielder, highlighted by this play.

My concern about Adell is playing time moving forward. Manager Joe Madden stated that Tayler Ward will be the Angels' starting right fielder when he returns from the IL and immediately inserted him into the cleanup spot on Saturday, Ward's first game off of the IL.

Adell did keep his spot in the Angels lineup as they faced left-handed pitcher Taylor Hearn, going 1-for-5 with a strikeout. That improved his season line to .192/.192/.500 with two homers, three RBI, two runs and no steals.

Adell has the bat to be a fantasy asset so I'm not willing to cut him yet. But if things play out as I suspect they might, Adell will find himself sitting on the bench more than he starts, massively reducing his fantasy value. His lack of walks (zero so far and career 5.0% BB% in the Majors) and high strikeouts harm him much more in points leagues.

We'll need to see how things pan out but there's a real chance Adell finds himself in a platoon with Brandon Marsh. And he's on the wrong side of it as a rightie batter. It might be a good idea to test the trade market for Adell now while you can still get something meaningful in return. Otherwise, I'm still holding him on my roster.

On the Hot Seat

Julio Rodriguez - OF, Seattle Mariners - 71% rostered

As mentioned with Kelenic, Rodriguez is off to a slow start and could find himself in the Minors if he doesn't pick things up. Like Kelenic last year, Rodriguez was fast-tracked to the Majors, having not played a single game at Triple-A.

Rodriguez has only played a total of 217 Minor League games, with just 46 coming at the Double-A level. But Rodriguez dominated at all levels he played at before having a great Spring, leading to him starting the year with the Mariners. He hit three homers and stole three bases with a .412/.487/.794 line in 14 Spring games.

His Minor league stats are 30 homers, 152 RBI, 177 runs, and 32 steals with a .331/.412/.543 slash line. Rodriguez also had an 18.9% K% and 10.2% BB%. That walk rate is the only thing that's translated in the Majors as he has a 9.7% BB% so far but with a 51.6% K%.

He does, however, appear to have been a victim of some questionable calls.

The above graphic shows Rodriguez's first 12 strikeouts on the season, nine of which were called strike three. Four of the nine should have been called as a ball. That's not to say he wouldn't have struck out or made an out anyway but it's something worth noting.

Rodriguez has still managed to flash his speed and already ranks in the 97th percentile for sprint speed. He walks enough so just needs to make more contact to fully utilize it. The problem is that he may not get long enough to make the necessary adjustments and show his potential.

He's entering Sunday with no homers, no RBI, two runs, and two steals while hitting .107/.194/.143 in eight games. But he's a consensus top-three prospect in baseball so shouldn't be cast aside after a bad week or two to begin his MLB career.

If I drafted Rodriguez, I'd be keeping him to see if he can get things going considering the season is not even 10 games old. I'd also be making contingency plans (like stashing Lewis on my IL) in the event he gets sent down. Obviously, in dynasty leagues, Rodriguez is a 100% hold.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Charlie Blackmon - OF, Colorado Rockies - 54% rostered

April struggles........

I'm starting a movement to call Blackmon "Teflon Charlie" as no matter how much he struggles or doesn't contribute, he will still hit in key spots in the Rockies lineup. That appears true this year, with Blackmon starting his seventh game of the season where he's hit first or second in the Rockies lineup exclusively.

That's despite a cold start in which he's hitting .200/.273/.267 with three RBI, one run, and zero steals or homers. He's also got a 27.3% K%. This is all early and small sample sizes but he's been in decline over the last two to three years.

After averaging 26 homers and 23 steals a year between 2014 and 2018, he's only managed seven steals in 356 games since. Although he hit 32 homers in 2019, he's only managed a total of 19 home runs in 210 games since.

Blackmon got off to a slow start last year. Entering May 2021, he was hitting .184/.303/.303 with one homer, 11 RBI, and six runs (zero steals). He still finished the year with a .270/.351/.411 line, 13 homers, 78 RBI, 76 runs, and three steals.

He'll likely finish the year with similar numbers and it's those runs and ribbies that'll keep Blackmon as a useful fantasy asset. Assuming he doesn't find himself benched more or hitting down the order, he's still got fantasy value.

Jonathan Villar - 2B/3B/SS, Chicago Cubs - 40% rostered

Villar appeared to be the odd-man-out in the Cubs infield to start the season, playing only once in their first four games. He's since started the Cubs' last four games heading into Sunday, batting third in two of those games and second on Saturday.

He's not managed to reach the insane heights he did in 2018, when he hit 24 homers, 73 RBI, 11 runs, and 40 steals while hitting .274/.339/.453. But he's had a solid two years since then, playing 194 games with 20 homers, 57 RBI, 76 runs, 30 stolen bases, and a .244/.316/.380 slash line.

He's certainly the hot bat in the Cubs' infield right now, hitting .474/.500/.579 after a 4-for-5 performance last night. Villar is yet to homer or attempt a steal but has four RBI and four runs in his five games.

The Cubs appear to favor Villar hitting in the top third of their lineup and he's played second base, third base, and shortstop. That versatility should be enough to keep Villar on the field and if the playing time persists, he should be someone being added rather than dropped.

Akil Baddoo - OF, Detroit Tigers - 36% rostered

Baddoo came out of nowhere to star for the Tigers last year. Despite only playing four games at Triple-A and missing Double-A altogether, Baddoo was taken by the Tigers (from the Twins) in the Rule 5 draft and played 124 MLB games in 2021. And he looked right at home too, homering on his first pitch in the Majors.

He went on to hit 12 more while stealing 18 bases and finished the year with a .259/.330/.436 slash line. The concern now is Baddoo's struggles at the plate in what is a fairly crowded outfield.

When the Tigers traded for Austin Meadows, that left the team with six outfielders on their active roster. Not to mention Riley Greene in the Minors. Baddoo has still started in six of the Tigers' first eight games but is hitting .091/.130/.273 with one homer, one RBI, one run, and no steals.

Baddoo is yet to hit higher than sixth in the lineup and that won't improve unless he starts showing signs of life at the plate. He's entering Sunday with one homer, one RBI, one run, and no steals while hitting .087/.125/.261.

Baddoo is also a candidate for platooning. In 2021, he had a .214/.278/.245 line versus LHP in 108 plate appearances. He had four homers, a 30.6% K%, and 8.3% BB%. Against RHP, Baddoo had 353 plate appearances, hitting .273/.346/.495 with nine homers, a 25.2% K% and 10.2% BB%

If Greene does get called up soon, it could come at the expense of Baddoo's playing time as he's been tabbed as the Tigers' center fielder (Baddoo has exclusively played center field this year). Until such time, I'm not dropping Baddoo but I will be keeping a closer eye on his playing time and the Tigers' lineups.

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