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Adam's top fantasy football wide receiver busts. Potential early-round avoids and landmines for WRs in 2025, including Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and more.
I love talking about all of my favorite draft day targets. But what I find even more enjoyable is helping people stay away from overvalued players each and every year.
All of these wide receivers come with risk at their average draft position (ADP). Whether it's injury risk, quarterback risk, or offensive environment risk, there are far too many red flags to deal with this season.
These are talented players, but that may not be enough to overcome the risk that comes with drafting them early in fantasy football this season. Avoid these five early-round wide receiver landmines in 2025.
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Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Yahoo ADP - 11.0 (WR5)
Nabers is unquestionably one of the most talented wide receivers in the world. Nobody would argue otherwise. But that doesn't necessarily make him a rock-solid first-round pick in fantasy football drafts.
Despite returning to practice recently, Nabers has battled toe, shoulder, and back issues in training camp. While the Giants don't seem overly concerned, the bumps and bruises are adding up, and the chronic toe issue is here to stay.
It's not just the injuries that are of concern; Nabers got a new quarterback this offseason in Russell Wilson. While on paper, he's an upgrade over Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Drew Lock, Wilson hasn't been the same quarterback since leaving Seattle a few years ago.
Since the 2022 season, none of Wilson's receivers (Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and George Pickens) have produced more than 13.6 fantasy points per game or garnered a first-read target share north of 30% (per Fantasy Points Data).
Pickens' first-read target share actually fell last season when Russ took over for Justin Fields in Week 7 (34.3% vs. 30.6%).
You might be thinking, "Well, none of these guys are even close to as talented as Nabers." While that's true, Wilson is also good enough (and better than last year's quarterbacks) at reading a defense and reacting accordingly.
It's possible he doesn't force-feed Nabers like Jones, Lock, and DeVito did in 2024. Nabers led all receivers in targets per game (11.1) and first-read target share (42.8%) last season.
Despite the league-leading opportunity, he finished his rookie season as the WR7 overall and 18th in fantasy points per route run (0.52). And now defenses will have a year of tape to study him.
It's hard to imagine his targets per game and first-read target share going up or even staying the same in 2025, so he'll have to become a more efficient receiver.
Can he do that with Wilson under center, and will the nagging injuries slow him down? Those are questions I'd rather let someone else find out the answers to.
Players to target instead: Nico Collins, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Yahoo ADP - 28.0 (WR12)
Talk about a headache. Nothing about Hill and his relationship with Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the Dolphins organization this offseason has been positive.
He openly criticized the coaching staff for running De'Von Achane in 3rd-and-short situations last season. He's banged up with an oblique injury. And on top of all the antics, Hill is a declining player heading into his age-31 season.
🎥 Tyreek Hill on how the Dolphins can solve their short yardage woes in the run game: "Take [Achane] out on 3rd-down. That's my honest opinion. If it's 3rd-and-short, he's not a power back... If I'm being honest, that's why you got Jaylen Wright." (@MiamiDolphins) #PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/mYxKPUkVHO
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) August 1, 2025
For reference on the oblique injury, Orlando Magic stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner both had to miss 6+ weeks during the 2024-2025 NBA season with their respective oblique injuries. Depending on severity, these take time to heal.
Now, back to Hill being a declining player. Not only did he register a career-low 1.99 yards per route run in 2024, but he also declined as a route-runner, according to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception.
Harmon notes, "he just didn't play as well in isolation as he has in previous seasons." Hill's 67.3% success rate vs. man coverage last season ranked in just the 44th percentile. In 2023, his 75.8% success rate vs. man coverage ranked in the 83rd percentile.
That's an astronomical difference. The age cliff takes no prisoners, and Hill might just be the next guy up. It would defy history to see Hill's efficiency skyrocket back to 2023 levels after what we saw in 2024.
Not to mention, it sounds like Jaylen Waddle has become Tua's primary guy this training camp. That makes a lot of sense considering all the time Hill has missed, as well as his damaged relationship with Tagovailoa and the rest of the team.
It's best to avoid Hill this season. It's easy to do so at his inflated cost that reflects his game-breaking ability from two-to-three years ago.
Players to target instead: Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Yahoo ADP - 37.0 (WR15)
Don't hate the player, hate the situation. In 2024, even before Davante Adams joined the Jets, Wilson ranked just 29th among wide receivers in fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data).
He was also just 35th in yards per route run (1.77). Despite averaging the second-most targets per game (11) and the sixth-highest first-read target share (35.7%) during that stretch, Wilson ranked just 17th in reception yards per game (66.5).
So, despite the massive opportunity with Aaron Rodgers, Wilson failed to even meet expectations. And in 2025, he goes from a statue pocket-passer to a guy who wants to take off and run whenever the opportunity presents itself.
Yes, it's true, D.J. Moore was a top-10 wideout playing with Fields in 2023. However, he averaged just 7.8 targets per game (25.9% target share) despite a 38% first-read target share.
Moore finished as the WR9 overall, but ranked just 23rd in expected fantasy points per game (13.9). He far exceeded the opportunities he was given with Fields under center.
The concern here for Wilson is that something similar occurs this season in New York. If he's not going to become a more efficient receiver (Moore was), then he's not going to put up monster numbers with fewer opportunities.
Fields is a great fantasy football quarterback because of his ability as a runner, but that's not what Wilson needs. He needs someone to put the ball on the money. Fields might not be that guy.
Fields and Wilson were supposed to have "uncanny" camaraderie.. pic.twitter.com/vR6T1OSpl8
— RosterWatch (@RosterWatch) August 14, 2025
Last season, Fields attempted just 26.7 passes per game. Even if Wilson has a 30% target share, that would equate to only 136 targets across 17 games. That'd be a career low for him.
He's never finished better than WR19 in any one season, but now he's going as the 15th wide receiver off the board with a relatively inaccurate and low-volume passer as his quarterback.
All of the stars would have to align perfectly for Wilson to pay off at his ADP this season.
Players to target instead: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP - 39.0 (WR16)
Harrison Jr. wasn't necessarily bad as a rookie. But he also wasn't very good, either. Despite scoring eight touchdowns on 116 targets, he finished as the WR42 on a points-per-game basis.
MHJ didn't come anywhere close to paying off at his rookie season ADP of 15.0 (WR9). Now, this season, you're getting a slight discount, but you're still paying a premium due to some hypothetical ceiling we've put on him.
Harrison Jr. did a fine job on the routes he was asked to run. The problem, however, is that he wasn't asked to run a very diverse route tree.
Per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception, MHJ had just four catches "in space" last season. Essentially, he wasn't given the ball "in space" and asked to do much after the catch. As a result, his yards after catch per reception ranked just 122nd among wide receivers last season.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Harrison Jr. also had a low first-downs per route run rate of 0.085 (53rd among wide receivers), and ranked 96th in catchable target percentage (71.9%).
But what if things change in 2025? What if Kyler Murray improves drastically in Year 7? What if returning offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and returning head coach Jonathan Gannon decide to adjust MHJ's deployment?
Well, that's a lot of "ifs," isn't it? The chances of his deployment changing drastically this season in the same offense with the same quarterback aren't all that likely. And I'm not willing to pay a premium to find out.
Players to target instead: Mike Evans
D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
Yahoo ADP - 48.0 (WR21)
I'm changing my tune on Moore. Earlier this offseason, I was in on the veteran wideout. However, as camp has rolled along, it seems clear the Bears have big plans for Rome Odunze.
Bears HC Ben Johnson praised WR Rome Odunze, calling him a “prototypical X receiver” and saying he’s been “really impressive” in camp, especially in 1-on-1 matchups pic.twitter.com/5XGvZquSDE
— Dave (@dave_bfr) July 29, 2025
Rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III also appear to be the real deal. It's not that Moore isn't good; he is, it's just that new head coach Ben Johnson seems to have plans for his younger pass-catchers.
Johnson and beat writers alike are all trying to figure out exactly how Moore fits into this offense. That's not the best sign for his 2025 outlook.
Despite garnering the ninth-most targets among wideouts last season (138), Moore finished as just the WR27 on a points-per-game basis.
He finished as just the WR27 despite Odunze averaging just 8.6 fantasy points per game. If the drum beat around Rome is real this offseason, that number is going to spike drastically.
The Bears' offense will undoubtedly be better this season, but how much of that includes Moore, and can he really improve on his 2024 season with even more mouths to feed? Color me skeptical.
Players to target instead: Pickens, Jameson Williams, DeVonta Smith, Tetairoa McMillan
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