40 Stats To Know Before Your Fantasy Football Draft

August 25, 2021

Robert Lorge looks at 40 fantasy football stats you should know for your 2021 draft.

As you cram in preparation for your final fantasy football drafts, you'll come across various statistics related to player performance. Some may lend great insight while others may be altogether meaningless.

In an effort to help RotoBaller readers, I have culled 40 of the most important stats you need to know before you draft.

When you're done reading here, don't forget to check out our recently updated preseason rankings.

Stats You Need to Know

1. Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter for the Titans halfway through the 2019 season, he has averaged 22.13 PPG. Russell Wilson has averaged 22.07 from 2019-2020. Wilson is ranked as QB6 with an ADP of 59.3, while Tannehill is ranked as QB11 and being drafted with an ADP of 92. Ryan Tannehill got Julio Jones in the offseason.
2. Darrell Henderson is currently being drafted as the RB21. In Weeks 2–10 last season, Henderson was RB15. During that time, he was sharing touches with Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown. Now, he's sharing with Xavier Jones and John Funk.
3. The league leader in carries inside the red zone was 64. Last year, Akers, Henderson, and Brown combined for 81 such carries. Malcolm Brown is in Miami and Cam Akers is out of the season with a torn Achilles.
4. Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, and Jimmy Graham all recorded more targets than Robert Tonyan last season. However, Tonyan had more touchdowns than Darren Waller, D.K. Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins.
5. Aaron Jones finished as the RB5 in 2020. In 2019, he was the RB2. Jamaal Williams is now in Detroit and he averaged 35 catches the last two seasons. Aaron Jones is likely to have the biggest role of his career in the passing game and he's currently being drafted as the RB9.
6. In 2016, his rookie season, Ezekiel Elliott finished as the RB2. In 2017, he finished as the RB10 despite being suspended for six games. On a PPG basis, he was RB3. In 2018, he was RB5, and in 2019, he was RB4. During the first five games of 2020, prior to Dak Prescott's injury, he was RB3.
7. Despite the putrid Dallas offense once Prescott went down, Elliott still finished fifth in most carries inside the 10-yard line and was tied for second for most carries inside the five-yard line. Expect there to be more scoring opportunities with Dak under center, not less.
8. From 2018-2020, Christian McCaffrey has averaged 23.6 points per game. Only Patrick Mahomes has averaged more points per game during that time.
9. In Le'Veon Bell's rookie season, he had 244 carries over 13 games, a pace of 300 carries over 16 games. He also had 66 targets and was on pace for 81 during his first year. In his sophomore season, he had 290 carries and 105 targets. In his third season, he missed 10 games but had 113 carries and 26 targets in six weeks, which means he was on pace for 301 carries and 69 targets. In his fourth season, he had 261 carries and 94 targets in 12 games, a pace of 348 carries and 125 targets. In his fifth season, he had 321 carries and 106 targets in 15 games. In 2018, when Bell held out and James Conner, a red-shirted sophomore, got the starting gig, he racked up 215 carries and 71 targets across 13 games, a pace of 265 carries and 87 targets. Bell was drafted in the second round. James Conner was drafted in the third round. Najee Harris was drafted in the first round. If he's healthy, he's going to eat. A lot.
10. Last season, Mike Evans caught a touchdown at 11.9% of his targets. Prior to 2020, his career touchdown rate was 5.7%. If he had scored at his career rate last season with the number of targets he received, he would've been WR24, not WR10. Last season, Chris Godwin missed four games, Antonio Brown missed eight games, and O.J. Howard missed 14. All of those players are healthy this season.
11. Last year, the backup running backs for the Raiders combined for 121 carries, 50 targets, and 41 catches. Even if you take away 18 of Josh Jacobs' catches and 38 carries, he would still have 250 touches at the season's end with a stranglehold on the goal-line work. The Raiders' backup running backs would still have 159 carries and 59 catches. The point being, Josh Jacobs is still a very safe RB2 in any scoring format.
12. Josh Jacobs was tied for first with the most carries inside the 10-yard line and was first with the most carries in the red zone.
13. Davante Adams averaged more targets per game than every other receiver in the league last season. He also ended the year with eight more red-zone targets than the next closest wideout. His offense is projected to be top-three in scoring. He is the easy No. 1 wide receiver heading into draft season.
14. Diontae Johnson received fewer red-zone targets than Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and only three more red-zone targets than James Conner.
15. Those hoping for a Cole Kmet breakout season will need to hope for a change in Jimmy Graham's role, as 25% of his targets came inside the red zone. If he continues to be used heavily in that area of the field, it'll be tough for Kmet to be a viable fantasy tight end.
16. Tyler Boyd played the fourth-most snaps in the NFL from the slot last season. Boyd's role in the Cincinnati offense is super safe and will continue to be consistent week-to-week. The target competition is more likely to occur between Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase on the outside.
17. DeAndre Hopkins had a 7.12% touchdown rate in his two years with Deshaun Watson. Last year, he had a 3.75% touchdown rate. Expect that rate to go way up this season in his second season in Kliff Kingbury’s offense and in his second year catching passes from Kyler Murray.
18. Since 2018, Chris Carson has played in more football games than Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. He’s played in the same number of games as Derrick Henry and only one less game than Aaron Jones.
19. In seven games last year where Keenan Allen played with Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler, he averaged 12.3 points per game in half-PPR scoring. In six games he played without Ekeler, he averaged 17.2 points per game.
20. Ronald Jones II averaged more yards after contact per attempt than every other running back in the NFL. He averaged three yards after contact per carry. He also averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Leonard Fournette averaged only 3.8 yards per carry, 1.3 yards worse than Jones or only .8 yards better than what Jones did after contact. Ronald Jones also had 21 carries inside the 10-yard line whereas Fournette only had 12.
21. Kenyan Drake was fourth in carries inside the red zone with 56. He was third in carries inside the five-yard line with 21. James Conner was signed as a likely replacement to Kenyan Drake. James Conner is currently being drafted as the RB38.
22. In 15 games, J.K. Dobbins had only three games with 15 or more touches. In 13 games, D’Andre Swift had five. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had eight such games in 13 contests. In 14 games, Antonio Gibson racked up seven games with 15 or more touches. In 12 games, Miles Sanders had eight games with 15 or more touches. Don’t forget, volume is king in fantasy football.
23. From 2017–2020, the duration Anthony Lynn was with the Chargers as head coach and where Dan Campbell was in New Orleans as an assistant head, the Saints and Chargers were No. 1 and No. 2 in running back touches and receptions. Lynn is now the offensive coordinator of the Lions and Campbell is the head coach of the Lions. With D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, they appear to be trying to build similar offensive structures.
24. David Montgomery was one of only four running backs with 300 or more touches last year. He was also the eighth-most targeted running back. Volume is king.
25. From 2019–2020, Lamar Jackson has averaged 25.44 points per game. No other quarterback has averaged over 23.20 points per game during that span. Running quarterbacks are cheat codes.
26. In three seasons as a starter, Tyrod Taylor has supported exactly one top-20 wide receiver. No other receiver has finished in the top-50.
27. Brandin Cooks’ primary quarterbacks have been a competent Jared Goff (who threw for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns), Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Deshaun Watson. Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills are a far cry from that. Tyrod Taylor has never thrown for more than 3,050 yards in a season or 21 touchdowns. The Texans are going to be actively trying to lose games and they have a first-time head coach.
28. In eight games last year without Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara averaged 27.32 points per game. Even if we exclude his Week 16 game with 54.7 points, he still would have averaged 23.41 points per game in half-PPR scoring. There may be concerns about how much Taysom Hill checked down to Kamara when he started, but that was with Hill starting mid-season on the fly. This time, Sean Payton will have picked out his starter and will have had a full offseason to figure out ways to get Kamara the ball. Without Thomas, expect Kamara to be the Saints' offense.
29. The Jaguars have 240 vacated targets from 2020. The running backs racked up 112 targets last season, so there’s plenty there for Travis Etienne to be heavily utilized. D.J. Chark had 93 and Laviska Shenault Jr. had 79. There’s plenty of volume in this offense for all three receivers, along with Marvin Jones, to be fantasy relevant.
30. D.J. Chark was ninth in the NFL in most air yards unrealized and was fifth in air yards averaged per game among all receivers who played in at least five games. With better quarterback play and a slight uptick in targets, which is certainly possible with how many vacated targets this team has, Chark could be a steal at his current ADP.
31. Last year, Josh Allen was second with the most passing attempts inside the red zone. He also had 15 carries inside the 10-yard line. Zack Moss also had 15 carries inside this range. Devin Singletary had eight. Inside the five-yard line, Allen had nine carries, Moss had eight, and Singletary had five. Banking on one of Buffalo’s running backs to be a weekly starter also means banking on Buffalo changing their offensive philosophy inside the red zone.
32. Travis Kelce scored 20+ points in 10 games last year. Tight ends who finished 3-10 also had 10 such games.
33. There were only three tight ends in the top-13 to record zero games with 20 or more points. Hayden Hurst, Rob Gronkowski, and T.J. Hockenson. Just because it’s humorous, Jimmy Graham had two such games.
34. The Patriots ran the ball on 76.81% of their plays inside the 10-yard line and an astonishing 83.87% of their plays inside the five-yard line. The offense is likely to be more efficient this season with the improved offensive line play and the talent upgrade among their pass-catchers, but these kinds of numbers could make Cam Newton a sleeper pick at quarterback. Should a quarterback change to Mac Jones happen, Damien Harris would get a huge increase in his value.
35. The Packers were the most pass-happy offense inside the five-yard line. They threw the ball on 61.54% of their plays. Rounding out the top five were the Bears (55.56%), Buccaneers (53.66%), Steelers (52.00%), and Seahawks (51.35%).
36. The five least pass-happy offenses inside the five-yard line were the Patriots, followed by the Jets (22.22%), Washington Football Team (24.24%), Rams (30.43%), and Panthers (31.03%).
37. If a 49ers running back had received just 50% of all the work, they would have finished with 197 points, which would have been good for an RB12 in half-PPR. The 49ers have made it known they want to run the ball more this year too, which will only increase the number of touches and fantasy points this group will score in 2021, without saying anything of the likely improved offensive efficiency. Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon are both worth the price of admission. Even 40% of the running back work from last year would have equaled 152.5 points, which would have been good for an RB24 finish.
38. In half-PPR scoring, Odell Beckham Jr. has finished as the WR34 in points per game in 2019 and WR37 in 2020.
39. In 2019, the Browns were 20th in pass attempts per game, and in 2020, they were 28th.
40. Last season, 262 players and 464 other personnel tested positive for COVID. Hopefully, that number goes down significantly.

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