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Adam Koffler identifies 3 overvalued wide receivers that could bust in 2022 fantasy football. Where should you draft these NFL WRs if not at their current ADP?
I don't fade players, I fade average draft positions (ADPs). For one reason or another, whether it's past performance or injury history, some guys get drafted too high or too low.
In this article, we'll take a look at three overvalued fantasy football wide receivers that are potential busts in 2022. Now, that doesn't mean the wheels will completely fall off, but it does mean we should be avoiding them at cost for a variety of reasons.
Here are three overvalued wide receivers that could potentially bust (at ADP) in the 2022 season. Make sure to also check out my overvalued running backs article.
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Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: WR9, Overall 26
Did you know?... Mike Evans had a lower target share (16.4%) and target rate (19.2%) than Kenny Golladay in 2021. Golladay saw 5.6 targets and averaged just 6.4 PPR fantasy points per game. Evans on the other hand saw 7.5 targets and averaged 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game. Fewer than two more targets, yet 10 more fantasy points per game for Evans. Clearly, not all targets are created equal.
That rings especially true when talking about Evans, who clearly benefits from playing with Tom Brady in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. He's caught 27 touchdowns from Brady in two seasons (32 games) which is just incredible. That's a touchdown every 8.3 targets. While that seems unsustainable, many thought the same thing after the 2020 season, and Evans followed up his 13-touchdown performance with a 14-touchdown season.
But let's be honest here, a touchdown every 8.3 targets is NOT sustainable. Davante Adams, one of the very best at catching touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers, has caught one every 12.3 targets since 2016, and even that should be considered incredible.
The issue for Evans is that we can't rely on the Buccaneers to pass a league-high 43.3 times as they did in 2021. The league average is right around 33-35 pass attempts per game, and while it's unlikely Brady is playing football to only throw 33 times per game, the Bucs certainly won't be at 43 pass attempts per game in 2022.
Evans' target share in 2021 was the lowest of his eight-year career (just 16.4%). That's down from just 18% in 2020. We know Brady likes to throw to a variety of different receivers. This season, even without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, Brady has a number of guys that can make plays. Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, and Julio Jones will all take valuable targets away from Evans. They'll also likely siphon some touchdowns as well.
So let's say the Bucs throw 38 times per game in 2022 (like they did in 2020) and we give Evans a similar target share to last season. He'd be around 103 targets or 6.2 per game. For reference, Laviska Shenault Jr. averaged 6.3 targets per game in 2021. For Evans to come anywhere close to his WR9 ADP, he'll either have to jump up in target share by quite a bit, or he'll have to catch another 14 touchdowns (which seems unlikely given Brady threw a career-high 719 passes in 2021).
I'd much rather have Tee Higgins (WR12), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR13), DJ Moore (WR15), Mike Williams (WR17), and even Courtland Sutton (WR21) than Evans this season.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
ADP: WR25, Overall 59
Believe it or not, Cooper's career-high target share sits at just 22.3%, and that was back in 2016 when he was just 22-years-old. He averaged 8.2 targets per game that year. Last season, his target share sat at just 18.8%, which translated to 6.9 targets per game. Of course, that was with the Cowboys, and now he's with the Browns.
Let's now take a look at the Cowboys' passing attack vs. the Browns' passing attack. Last season, the Cowboys averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game. They threw 56.6% of the time. The Browns, on the other hand, averaged just 30.6 pass attempts per game and threw just 49.4% of the time. That's a pretty big difference.
For argument's sake, let's say Cooper gets back to a 21% target share (what he saw in 2020). Even if the Browns throw the ball 32 times (which would be higher than both 2020 and 2021), Cooper would see about 114 targets (just 6.7 per game). That's assuming the Browns throw more than they have the last two seasons and that Cooper gets back above a 20% target share.
Moreover, former Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield never threw more than 26 touchdowns in a single season, whereas Dak Prescott threw 37 a season ago.
Now let's talk about the quarterback change for the Browns. It's no longer Mayfield, of course. Instead, it's Jacoby Brissett. The last time Brissett was a full-time starter was back in 2019 with the Colts. That season, he averaged just 31.6 pass attempts per game and threw just 18 total touchdowns. Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines were his running backs. Now, he has Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D'Ernest Johnson (an upgrade).
Additionally, Brissett isn't much of a downfield thrower of the football. In 2021, Cooper averaged 12.7 yards per target. Prescott averaged 7.5 yards per attempt. In 2019 and 2021 (his last two years as a starter in some capacity), Brissett averaged just 6.6 and 5.7 yards per attempt.
And if ALL of what was discussed so far doesn't have you avoiding Cooper, take a look at the below splits:
I'd much rather take the upside of the following guys that get drafted around Cooper's ADP:
Darnell Mooney (WR30), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR29), Elijah Moore (WR33), Rashod Bateman (WR35), Brandon Aiyuk (WR37), and DeVonta Smith (WR36)
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
ADP: WR32, Overall 75
Where to start with Michael Thomas. First and foremost, he's played just seven games in the last two seasons. Things are completely different now. His head coach is no longer Sean Payton, his quarterback is no longer Drew Brees, and he's no longer a spry, injury-free 26-year-old.
Thomas is entering his age 29 season and the Saints did a lot to bolster the receiving corps heading into the 2022 season. They moved up to draft Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave and brought in a premier slot receiver in Jarvis Landry. The last time Thomas was competing with anybody for targets over the course of a full season (in 2019), his competition was Jared Cook, Ted Ginn Jr., and Tre'Quan Smith.
And to make matter worse, Thomas is already dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp, which could be cause for concern.
And if that wasn't already enough, Olave looks poised to make a lot of noise right out of the gates. Don't be shocked if he's the leading receiver on this team with Thomas coming back after a nearly two-year absence to an entirely new situation.
Tread lightly on the oft-injured Michael Thomas this season.
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