RADIO
I feel like Pierre Garcon is one of those wide receivers that is universally rooted for by both the NFL and fantasy football community. Garcon was a sixth-round pick out Mount Union College (one of the strongest Division III programs in the United States), he was an up-and-coming part of an Indianapolis Colts team led by Peyton Manning that reached the 2009 AFC Championship Game, and lets be honest he has an awesome name.
A year after the Washington Redskins acquired Garcon, he had a breakout campaign. With two different quarterbacks shuffling in and out of the lineup, Garcon became one of the three players in NFL history to catch five or more passes in each of the 16 regular season games and yes, he led the NFL in receptions that season.
That season seems like a long time ago, but Garcon isn’t that far removed from it. Unfortunately, his declining fantasy value isn’t even his own fault. With seemingly constant changes at the quarterback and different coaching positions, it’s very difficult for Garcon to perform year-in and year-out with this Washington franchise.
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Robert Griffin III is scheduled to start the season for Washington, after being replaced by Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins at some points last season. One may want to draw comparisons to 2013 where RG3 was an integral part of Garcon’s breakout season, but the coaching staff and personnel aren't the same.
Jay Gruden’s run-oriented offense has already had a negative effect on Garcon’s output in just one season. Garcon went from 181 targets in 2013 to 105 targets in 2014. Even though there have been reports that the Redskins plan to feature Garcon more often in 2015, those offseason and preseason fluff articles don’t really mean much until the players step onto the field. Garcon will probably still see over 100 targets, since he did see 105 targets just last year (en route to 68 catches) but even that isn’t something to get overly excited about due to his low touchdown totals.
Garcon has never caught more than six touchdowns in a season, and hasn’t had more than five touchdowns in the past three seasons.
To recap the negatives: Garcon doesn’t catch that many touchdowns to make up for his lack of catches, Garcon saw 76 less targets and 45 less receptions in the first season under Gruden, and finally, Robert Griffin III being healthy for a full season has been the only recipe that's led to fantasy relevance for him.
Last season, Griffin III played In Week 1, Week 2, then Week 9 through Week 16. For the information in regards to Garcon, we are dismissing Week 2 (Griffin exited game early; completed two of three passes) and Week 13 (Griffin exited game early; completed three of four passes). That leaves us with eight games where RG3 and Garcon played full games in Gruden's first season as head coach.
The Eight-Game Summary
Garcon had zero touchdown catches, even if you include the dismissed games in Week 2 and Week 13. He just doesn't get the red zone targets in this scheme.
Garcon had double-digit targets only one time; the first week of the season where he had his best game, catching 10 passes on 12 targets for 77 yards. Garcon had five or fewer targets in five of the eight full games with RG3 at quarterback.
Aside from Week 1, Garcon had fewer than five receptions in each of the other seven games when paired with Griffin III.
Garcon had more than 100 receiving yards in only one game all season, a game Griffin didn't play in (Week 3). He had less than 50 receiving yards in five of the eight games and had single-digit receiving yards twice.
One can say it only goes up from here, but how far up can it go? Garcon's ceiling seems to be a relatively low one at best. Washington won four games in 2014 and three games the year before. If you want to be the lone ranger that thinks Garcon will be peppered with targets in a run-first offense, then you my friend, are what we call an optimist. That eight-game summary from last season is daunting, and there wasn't even of a glimmer or hint that strong performances are coming in the near future.
For one last visual, look below:
Week 9: 10 Targets, 6 receptions, 30 yards
Week 10: 4 Targets, 2 receptions, 12 yards
Week 11: 8 Targets, 6 receptions, 68 yards
Week 12: 18 Targets, 6 receptions, 18 yards
Week 14: 14 Targets, 8 receptions, 72 yards
Week 15: 10 Targets, 8 receptions, 122 yards
Week 16: 10 Targets, 4 receptions, 106 yards
Those would be Garcon's stats last season if they were randomly doubled. If you can arbitrarily double a player's stats and they still aren't strong, that's probably not a good sign.
Unfortunately for Garcon, that season isn't happening again in this offense.
