WR Target and Snap Count Risers From Week 14

December 13, 2018

Phil Clark examines the most important risers and fallers in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for fantasy football wide receivers before Week 15.

Congratulations to those of you whose diligence through the draft process and the regular season has been rewarded with an opportunity to participate in the fantasy playoffs. Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. Since you have now advanced even further toward achieving your objective, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available. This will help you maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

This article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to decide which wide receivers should be in your lineups as you plan for Weeks 15-16. Pro Football Reference was used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from 14 weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers this week. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 14.

Overall Targets

Julio Jones has recaptured the overall lead in targets for the season 144, followed by Antonio Brown (142), Adam Thielen (141) Davante Adams (138), JuJu Smith-Schuster (131), and Stefon Diggs (126). Even though he missed Week 14 with a quad issue, Odell Beckham Jr. is tied with Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Hopkins (124), followed by Keenan Allen (122), Michael Thomas (118), Robert Woods (111), Mike Evans (111) and Tyler Boyd (103). No other wide receivers have reached 100 targets for the season, although Golden Tate (99), T.Y. Hilton (98), Brandin Cooks (97), and Kenny Golladay (96) should attain that number during this week's game action.

Despite having to contend with a foot injury, Hill led all receivers in targets for Week 14. He was followed by Thomas, Woods, and Amari Cooper with 13, while Hilton, Smith-Schuster and Edelman were next with 12. Jones and Adams each collected 11 - while Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Jaguar teammates Dede Westbrook / Donte Moncrief, and emerging undrafted free agent Tim Patrick, all captured 10. No other wide receivers reached double-digits during their Week 14 matchups, although Kenny Stills, Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Alshon Jeffery, Zay Jones, Michael Gallup and Daesean Hamilton all received nine.

Jones also leads all receivers in targets per game (11.1), followed by Brown (10.9), Thielen (10.9), Adams (10.6), Diggs (10.5), Beckham (10.3), and Smith-Schuster (10.1). Hopkins (9.5), Landry (9.5), Allen (9.4), Thomas (9.1), Julian Edelman (9). Hilton (8.9), Hill (8.8), Woods (8.5), Evans (8.5), and Golden Tate (8.3) complete the list of receivers that are averaging 8+ targets-per-game.

Since Week 11, Hilton has collected 44 targets, including 25 in his last two games (9, 10, 13, 12). Edelman's 12 targets were the most since Week 10, as the ninth-year receiver had averaged 6.5 targets-per-game from Weeks 11-13.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Tim Patrick entered Week 14 with 11 targets throughout the entire season, and Case Keenum had not launched a throw in his direction since Week 11. But the torn Achilles that ended Emmanuel Sanders' season vaulted Patrick into an expanded role, and he capitalized by capturing seven of his team-high 10 targets.

Patrick’s situation replicated that of his teammate DaeSean Hamilton, who began Week 14 game action with just 16 targets in his first 12 games, and then garnered nine during the Broncos’ matchup with San Francisco. Considering the dearth of targets that Patrick and Hamilton had received prior to Week 14, it is hardly surprising that the tandem registered the largest weekly increases among all receivers.

Hill's commendable effort in playing through pain while collecting 14 targets resulted in a weekly surge of +8. Moncrief was next with an increase of +6, followed by Westbrook, Michael Thomas, Josh Gordon, and Amari Cooper. Cooper's recent usage and output will be discussed in the 5 Things That I Noticed section.

Dante Pettis had been targeted eight times between Weeks 1-9, but has amassed 27 in his last four games (Weeks 10-14) while accruing seven in three straight contests. D.J. Moore has garnered 33 targets during Carolina’s last four games (8, 9, 8, 8).

Normally, a weekly decrease of 10 targets would be a reason for substantial concern. But anyone who owns Allen is already aware that he stockpiled 19 targets in Week 13, which made regression virtually inevitable.

The decline of five targets for Antonio Callaway should be more concerning for his owners, and even this week's enticing matchup does not sufficiently counteract the risk of starting him. Landry's increased production in Week 14 was undoubtedly embraced by owners. However, he was targeted just four times, which established a season low.

While Thielen’s weekly regression was not sizable (-3), he has now failed to reach a double-digit target total in four of his last six games, after beginning the season by accomplishing it in seven consecutive contests. The three targets that were distributed to Corey Davis established a new season-low at the most inopportune time for his owners.

Red Zone Targets

Smith-Schuster has ascended into the lead among all receivers with 27 red zone targets. Adams is directly behind him with 26, followed by Thomas (24), Hopkins (21), and Beckham with 20. Brown and Thielen are next with 19, followed by Shepard (18), Edelman (17), Landry (16), Allen (15), Davis (15), and four receivers that have collected 14 red zone targets – Cooks, Hill, Hilton, and Zay Jones.

Diggs, John Brown, Godwin, and Golladay have all attained 13, while Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jeffery have captured 12, and 12 additional receivers have been targeted at least 10 times this season.

Smith-Schuster, Hopkins, and Robby Anderson all registered four red zone targets during their matchups, which tied them for the highest totals of the week. Brown, Thomas, Shepard, Edelman, Moore, Allen, Courtland Sutton, and Zay Jones were all targeted three times during their contests, while seven other receivers attained two targets during their games.

Hopkins remains cemented as the leader in targets from inside the 10-yard line (15) followed by Thomas (12), Smith-Schuster (11), and Edelman (10). Hilton, Davis, and Godwin have collected nine targets this season, while Beckham, Thielen, and Woods have both received eight.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Smith-Schuster's four targets in Week 14 were the most since Week 2 when he received an astronomical eight passes in the red zone. That tied him for the largest increase of the week with Hopkins, who did not receive a red zone target in Weeks 12-13.

Anderson joined Hopkins and Smith-Schuster by attaining a rise of +4, which continued his recent surge in red zone opportunities. He did not register a single target near the goal line until Week 12 but has now accumulated five during the Jets' last three games.

Smith-Schuster, Adams, Allen, and Edelman have all collected six targets since Week 12, while Zay Jones has been targeted five times during the past two weeks.

Golladay had stockpiled eight targets from Weeks 10-13, including three against the Rams in Week 13. But he failed to register a red zone target in Arizona during the Lions' Week 14 matchup. That also gave him the dubious distinction of experiencing the week's largest regression (-3).

Snap Counts

Hopkins has maintained his healthy lead in overall snaps heading into Week 15 (893), while five other receivers have joined him in performing on 800+ snaps of their teams' offensive snaps - Antonio Brown (865), Woods (854), Thielen (838), Adams (803), and Cooks (800). Golladay paces a collection of 16 receivers that have a performed on at least 700 snaps (794), followed by Landry (786), Agholor (784), Evans (778), Smith-Schuster (768), and Hill (758).

There are no major surprises among the remaining receivers that have eclipsed 700 snaps, with the possible exception of Taylor Gabriel. He is currently 22nd among at his position with 705 snaps, although anyone who has recently entrusted him in their lineups is already aware that his time on the field has not equated to an adequate level of production.

Hopkins also continues to perform on the highest percentage of snaps at his position (99.3%), while Thielen (97%), Woods (96.7%), and Brown (95.2%) have all played on at least 95% of their team’s snaps this season. Adams (93.4%), Golladay (91.3%), Fitzgerald (91.3%), Cooks (90.6%), and Shepard (90.3%) complete the list of nine receivers that have attained a count of at least 90%, while 15 additional receivers have maintained a count of over 80%.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Not surprisingly, Hopkins performed on 100% of Houston's snaps during Week 14. However, Woods and Josh Reynolds also played on 100% of the Rams' snaps. Chris Conley did not quite replicate their 100% count, but he did line up on 99% of the snaps for Kansas City. Antonio Brown, Jeffery, and Cooks all achieved a 98% count followed by Thielen (97%), Hamilton (97%), Tyler Boyd (96%), Fitzgerald (96%), Robert Foster (96%), and Allen (95%). 12 other receivers achieved a count of at least 90% during Week 14.

The inclusion of Hamilton and Foster among the league leaders is an encouraging sign for anyone who has decided to use either receiver as a risk-reward WR3 this week. Chris Conley has averaged a count of 93% since Week 10 (92%, 89%, 92%, 99%) after achieving a season-high in Week 14.

The results are less favorable for Marquez-Valdes-Scantling, who was averaging a 90% count from Weeks 10-13 (95%, 98%, 83%, 84%) but was only involved in 46% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 14. It was easily his lowest count since Week 3, as Equanimeous St. Brown actually registered a higher percentage (52%).

Five Things That I Noticed

1. Anyone who drafted Amari Cooper and withstood any escalating impulses to trade him has been rewarded for their perseverance through the exasperating fluctuations in targets and production that permeated the first half of his season. He has now collected 53 targets in six games with the Cowboys, after receiving a season-high 13 in Week 14. That is the seventh highest total among all wide receivers during that sequence of games. His consistent level of opportunity has expanded his target-per-game average to 8.8 since his arrival in Dallas (8, 10, 5, 9, 8, 13). This stands in stark contrast to the unimpressive 5.3 targets-per-game average that he had attained during his first six games this season. That includes two consecutive games with just one target immediately before his trade from Oakland. While maintaining the 158 YPG average that he has assembled since Week 12 will be difficult, he should remain extremely proficient during the Cowboys next two matchups with Indianapolis and Tampa Bay.

2. Since Cooper's 53 targets that were assembled from Weeks 9-14 were just mentioned, you may be wondering how that compares to other receivers during that span. His total places him seventh in that sequence of games, while Keenan Allen leads all receivers with 66. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are next with 63, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster (62), Davante Adams (60), Michael Thomas (54), Cooper (53), and then Hilton and Golladay are tied with 51. Hilton's target total was attained while having a bye week transpire in Week 9, while Tyreek Hill (49), Julian Edelman (47), and Robert Woods (47) also accumulated their totals despite having byes. Other notable totals from Weeks 9-14 include Brandin Cooks (45), Mike Evans (43), and Adam Humphries (39).

3. With the highly productive Emmanuel Sanders no longer available to function as Case Keenum's WR1, it appeared likely that Courtland Sutton would be the primary beneficiary of Denver's restructured target distribution. Instead, Sutton’s six targets actually represented a slight decline from Week 13 (-1) while Tim Patrick (10 targets, 85 yards) and DaeSean Hamilton (9 targets, 47 yards, 1 touchdown) garnered more opportunities and supplied higher output. The fact that Sutton only caught two of those passes, and managed a paltry 14 yards, was even more problematic for his owners. He did register his first red zone targets since Week 5, but that was not helpful to anyone who started him against the 49ers. Cleveland's deployment of Denzel Ward will have a significant impact on determining which Bronco receiver will be most prolific during this week's matchup. But the belief from here is that Hamilton will collect the most targets and yardage while operating from the slot. That will make Sutton a risky start during your crucial Week 15 matchups.

4. At various points of the season, there have been rookies who appeared primed to separate themselves statistically from the other first-year receivers. But Antonio Calloway’s usage and production have become too erratic for owners to start him, Anthony Miller has become completely unusable, Calvin Ridley's recent target regression leaves him difficult to trust, and Christian Kirk suffered a broken foot. As a result, Dante Pettis and D.J. Moore have emerged as arguably the most dependable options among rookies as we enter Week 15. Pettis was discussed last week in this section, while Moore has now collected 33 targets during his last four matchups (8, 9, 8, 8), and has attained four of his five red zone targets for the season in Weeks 13-14. Michael Gallup has also been targeted 22 times since Week 12 (6, 7, 9) and will be the beneficiary of favorable matchups with Indianapolis and Tampa Bay in Weeks 15-16. He provides owners with a sneaky WR3 option and could generate similar results to his Week 13 performance against the Saints (5 receptions, 76 yards).

5. If you are not enamored with the WR3 options that you have been utilizing in your lineups, Robby Anderson presents an appealing blend of increased usage and an enticing matchup this week. Anderson averaged 4.3 targets-per-game from  Weeks 1-6 while exceeding five targets in just one contest. But he has averaged 7.2 targets-per-game in his last five matchups while accumulating a total of 36 during that sequence of games (10, 6, 5, 7, 7). His escalating red zone usage was mentioned earlier, as he has now accrued five targets since Week 12. This week, Anderson will be lining up against Houston perimeter corners that do not possess the size and speed to contain him consistently. He should be successful in gaining separation during the matchup, which will enable him to accumulate a favorable yardage total. He also provides the potential to generate several big plays, and produce a touchdown for the second consecutive week.

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