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Andrew Lalama evaluates key WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 13 fantasy football lineups.
With 13 weeks of data, the PPGA numbers on CB Matchup Chart are unlikely to change that much down the stretch. Atlanta is still an easy matchup for all receivers, while the Los Angeles Rams are the toughest. However, circumstances have changed in a few situations across the league. For example, Ugo Amadi is playing well as the slot corner for Seattle, while the Seahawks Defense as a whole has been much tougher than they were earlier in the year. They are no longer an extreme cupcake matchup.
In San Francisco, Richard Sherman is back, which bumps Jason Verrett to RCB. Opposing LWRs have averaged 17 PPG against the 49ers, but that was mostly against Emmanuel Moseley and others. With Verrett and Sherman on the outside, the 49ers are now a tough matchup for outside receivers.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in most cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 13
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
Michael Thomas had a good game against Atlanta two weeks ago, but Taysom Hill is not exactly a proven commodity as a passer. Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are in good spots against the Falcons, but I wouldn't be confident in a pass-heavy gameplan from Sean Payton.
A.J. Brown will face off against Browns' RCB Terrance Mitchell on Sunday. Mitchell has been better recently, but this is a great spot for the Titans' WR1.
So it turns out all Marquise Brown needed was an elite passer like Trace McSorley throwing him the ball to produce. All jokes aside, Hollywood should have Lamar Jackson back this week and gets an easy matchup against Dallas' subpar secondary. Dez Bryant is also in a good spot. It would be tough to trust either of them in all but the deepest of leagues.
Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney produced well against a tough Green Bay pass defense last week. The difference was Mitchell Trubisky, who now makes both Bears WRs viable fantasy options against Detroit.
T.Y. Hilton finally scored a touchdown last week and gets the burnable Texans CBs this Sunday. Michael Pittman Jr. is also in a good spot. Both get upgrades assuming Philip Rivers is healthy.
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen will face off against the overmatched Jaguars outside corners. Kirk Cousins should have no problem producing against the Jags, but the game script could be an issue. If you're starting Jefferson or Thielen, you should probably be rooting for some Mike Glennon magic on the other side.
Speaking of Glennon, he actually didn't look that bad against Cleveland in Week 12. Collin Johnson scored a TD with D.J. Chark and Chris Conley out, while Laviska Shenault Jr. was yet again underwhelming. Chark should be back this week and is a worthwhile play while the rest of the Jags receivers are dart throws.
Derek Carr and Nelson Agholor laid an egg against the Falcons' pass defense last week but should bounce back against the Jets in Week 13. Agholor has an easier on-paper matchup than Henry Ruggs III, but either or both have the ability to take advantage of RCB Lamar Jackson. Hunter Renfrow isn't a bad play either considering Brian Poole is no longer manning slot corner for New York.
The crazy Philadelphia WR1/WR2 splits evened out a bit last week with D.K. Metcalf torching Darius Slay, but Avonte Maddox still gave up a touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is in a great spot but tough to trust with Allen Lazard back in the mix.
Cooper Kupp did almost nothing against the 49ers' league-best slot defense last week. This week, he gets the most favorable slot matchup in the NFL in Arizona. Start him with confidence.
Finally, Tyler Lockett has a dream matchup against the Giants' Darnay Holmes in Seattle on Sunday. With D.K. Metcalf expected to be shadowed by James Bradberry, Lockett could have an enormous game.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
D.K. Metcalf clearly used this article as motivation last week, torching Darius Slay for 177 yards. Metcalf once again gets a tough matchup this week, but it might not matter. On one hand, he has dominated Stephon Gilmore, Tre'Davious White, and Darius Slay this year. On the other hand, the only corners he struggled with were Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey. James Bradberry has played at an All-Pro level this season and will likely shadow Metcalf. In terms of size and physicality, Bradberry is more similar to Ramsey and Peterson than he is to Slay.
Look out for injury updates on Jimmy Smith. If he's in, Amari Cooper has a tough matchup, while CeeDee Lamb will have to deal with Marlon Humphrey in the slot. If Smith is out, Humprhey could shadow Cooper, which would open up Lamb's matchup. Lamb's playing time isn't always consistent, so I wouldn't be super confident with any Cowboys receiver in Baltimore on Tuesday.
The Kansas City CB trio has been well above average this year and takes on the Broncos this week. Jerry Jeudy mostly plays LWR, where he'll take on Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is having a terrific year but has actually given up more fantasy points than his counterpart Charvarius Ward. Ward will match up primarily with Tim Patrick, who gets a downgrade. The Chiefs have not been elite defending slots this year, which makes K.J. Hamler a slightly better play than the two outside WRs. Game script and garbage time might lead to some points, but I wouldn't feel great about any of Drew Lock's targets on Sunday.
The Los Angeles Rams finally gave up some points to an opposing WR, allowing Deebo Samuel to go for over 100 yards in his return to action. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Samuel's success is probably not a sign that LA's pass defense is loosening up, considering a lot of Samuel's production came on glorified rushing attempts and YAC opportunities. Kyler Murray is banged up and DeAndre Hopkins hasn't been an elite producer in recent weeks. This is a tough spot for Hopkins and Christian Kirk.
Mike Williams will have to deal with the Patriots' tough outside corners, while Damiere Byrd gets Chargers standout corner Michael Davis. In that same game, Chris Harris Jr. is back for the Bolts, which means a downgrade for Jakobi Meyers. No receiver outside of Keenan Allen is an advisable play in this game.
The Washington Football team just gave up a 100-yard game to Amari Cooper, but have been stingy against the pass all year. Diontae Johnson is fresh off an embarrassing drop-filled performance on Wednesday night, and things won't get easier this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster also gets a downgrade as Washington has been excellent at limiting slot production all year.
Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis will face-off against the new-look 49ers secondary. Jason Verrett and Richard Sherman are both healthy, which is bad news for Josh Allen and company. The matchup looks good on the chart for Diggs because San Francisco gave up so many points to WR1s while Sherman was out. With Verrett sliding over to RCB and Sherman back in at LCB, it's a tough matchup for opposing WR groups. To make matters worse, the 49ers have been the toughest team in the league against slot receivers, which is not good news for Cole Beasley. The Bills are going to get passing yards somewhere, but it's unlikely that all three of these Bills receivers have big games.
Finally, Denzel Mims and Tee Higgins are a couple of impressive rookies with tough matchups, while Houston's new number two option Keke Coutee gets a tough draw in Kenny Moore.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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