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Andrew Lalama evaluates key WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 1 fantasy football lineups.
Welcome to the first WR/CB Matchups article of the 2021 NFL season. My goal last year was to create the first fully free WR/CB matchups article to share with the fantasy football community. I appreciate all the support and feedback I received. If you enjoy my work, please follow me on Twitter @draft32teams. My process includes a close study of college draft prospects, so I've scouted the majority of NFL CBs even before they step foot on an NFL field. I love fantasy football, but my real passion is scouting players for the NFL Draft.
After Week 1, I will adjust the chart to add PPGA and update the alignments and depth charts of each team. At this point, there is some speculation. I'm not exactly sure who will be playing in the slot for each team at WR or CB. Teams do different things schematically, and I can't be sure how they'll deploy their WRs or DBs in Week 1. The first chart is my best guess.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup (these will start in Week 2). The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 1
WR/CB Matchups to Target
I expect the fireworks to start early on Thursday night as Tom Brady and his trio of star WRs face off against an overmatched Dallas defense. None of the Cowboys' corners can match up with Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin. Trevon Diggs has the potential for growth, but for now, it's an easy matchup across the board.
One of my priorities for Week 1 is to get a good look at the deployment of a handful of unproven slot corners around the league. I expect Jamison Crowder to be out for the Jets, which would open the door for rookie stud Elijah Moore to burst onto the scene in his first game. Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson will likely be formidable outside foes all season, while Myles Hartsfield will be targeted a lot. I bet Moore pops off.
On the other side of that game, the Jets are trotting out three questionable starting corners, which should mean big things for D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall Jr. It will be interesting to see if Joe Brady decides to rotate his top three wideouts in the slot. Regardless, all three have big matchup advantages against a pass defense that won't have much of a pass rush either without Carl Lawson.
Another unproven slot corner who could be exposed early is Chicago's Duke Shelley. I expect Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp to start their season off in a big way against the Bears.
Jeff Okudah had a disappointing rookie year in Detroit, but maybe injury is to blame. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are set up for a big day against Okudah and Amani Oruwariye on the outside.
Washington has really good outside corners but Darryl Roberts is exploitable in the slot. Justin Herbert should pepper Keenan Allen with targets starting in Week 1.
The Jaguars WR alignments are also a question mark before the season. Whoever plays slot the most will have a tough matchup against Desmond King, while all outside routes will be covered by the very burnable Vernon Hargreaves and the below-average Terrance Mitchell. I don't think Laviska Shenault will play exclusively slot, so I wouldn't downgrade him. But both D.J. Chark and Marvin Jones have exploitable matchups outside.
The Cardinals lost Patrick Peterson and don't have much talent at the CB position. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones should feast.
DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle should be the clear-cut top options for Tua Tagovailoa with Will Fuller suspended, and Jalen Mills is quite a downgrade from Stephon Gilmore. I'm projecting Waddle to play the slot and face off against the formidable J.C. Jackson, so expect Parker to flourish against the Pats.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
Allen Robinson is an easy WR1 but he'll be getting used to a new QB and has to face off against Jalen Ramsey in Week 1. I would temper expectations.
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should be started in all leagues, but Xavier Rhodes and Kenny Moore do represent tough matchups. I expect a big season from Russell Wilson, but his WRs might not explode in Week 1.
Marquez Callaway has been a preseason hero, and his ADP has shot up significantly since Jameis Winston was named starting QB. Unfortunately, I expect him to see plenty of Jaire Alexander in Week 1. Alexander is arguably the best CB in the league and should be a nightmare for opposing WRs all year long.
Miami has three solid starting CBs, so I don't think Mac Jones will light up the scoreboard in his pro debut. Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne have to potential to be useful fantasy starts this season, but Week 1 does not look promising for any of them.
Last year we constantly targeted the Vikings' weak CB group, but this year may be different. With Patrick Peterson slated to take over at LCB, whoever plays RWR for the Bengals may start the season slowly. I do not expect both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to go off in Week 1. It will probably be one or neither.
Diontae Johnson has been a polarizing player this offseason. I expect him to start off slowly against Tre'Davious White.
Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III are both potential year-two breakouts. Unfortunately, I don't envision a hot start for either against the Ravens' tough outside corners.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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