WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 6 (2024)

October 12, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 6 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 6 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data since we're using the Week 1-5 metrics and matchup ratings might be skewed if a player struggled or succeeded, given the small sample. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

Favorable WR/CB Matchups Chart

Below, we'll see the most favorable WR/CB matchups for Week 6. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

Unfavorable WR/CB Matchups Chart

Since WR/CB matchups tend to be nuanced and complex, it may not be a perfect match for the real-time matchups during the game. The visual below shows the unfavorable Week 6 WR/CB matchups.

If a receiver struggles in the first several weeks, it will impact their weekly matchup scores after adjusting their respective score based on the weighted averages. That mainly means we should temper expectations based on the WR/CB matchups and team context.

Week 6 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Allen Lazard vs. Cam Lewis

Sometimes, bias seeps in when deciding to roster or start a player like Allen Lazard. Lazard garnered 18 targets over the past two weeks, ranking tied for 17th but earning a 19.6 percent target share (No. 57). It's partly due to Aaron Rodgers attempting the most passes, tied with Geno Smith at 96 in Weeks 4-5, furthermore evident by a 74 percent team pass rate (No. 3) compared to a 58 percent pass rate (No. 16) in Weeks 1-3.

The visual below shows the teams that saw the biggest difference and increase in pass rate from Weeks 1-3 to Weeks 4-5.

Though it's not reflected in the fantasy points allowed to the slot, Bills slot corner Cam Lewis allows the second-highest fantasy points and second-most yards per route run. Lazard remains a trusted option for Rodgers and should have the most favorable Jets' receiver matchup in Week 6. We'll take the offensive inefficiencies if the Jets' passing volume remains high, especially considering the better pace. That's evident in the 29.4 seconds per snap (No. 26) in Weeks 1-3 compared to 23.6 in Weeks 4-5 (No. 3).

Ladd McConkey vs. Ja'Quan McMillian

There's no denying the dominance of the Broncos' defense, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide and the lowest in the slot. So why would we have Ladd McConkey as an upgrade in Week 6? It's partly due to the underlying metrics pointing toward McConkey on the rise. That's evident by McConkey's team-leading 28.3 percent target share and 30.2 percent air yards share in Weeks 3-4 before their bye week.

On the season, McConkey garnered a 30.5 percent first-read target share (No. 21), slightly ahead of Quentin Johnston at 28.8 percent (No. 23). If there's one weakness, it looks like the Broncos' slot cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian. He allows 0.27 fantasy points per route run (No. 27) and 1.17 yards per route run (No. 37), slightly below the median out of 84 cornerbacks in Week 6. It might be more of a neutral than an above-average matchup for McConkey, but the slot receivers against the Broncos averaged 13.8 PPR/G in Weeks 3-5, so that should bode well as a median expectation for the rookie.

Rashod Bateman vs. Benjamin St-Juste

It might be one of the riskier plays, with Rashod Bateman having a favorable matchup against Benjamin St-Juste of the Commanders' secondary. The Commanders allow the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers, with the eighth-most out wide and fifth-most to the slot. Bateman saw a season-high eight targets in Week 5 against the Bengals, reeling in four for 58 yards and a score.

Unfortunately, the passing volume doesn't exist for the Ravens since they rank 30th in pass rate at 48 percent. Zay Flowers remains the top target earner with a 25.2 percent target share and a team-high 31.3 percent first-read share. That's double Isaiah Likely's first-read target share of 15.6 percent and Bateman's 14.6 percent. The Ravens and Commanders game projects for a 51.5 over/under and the second-highest game total of the week. Bateman is the cheap way to have a piece of the Ravens' offense in this juicy matchup.

The Commanders run the fourth-highest rate of Cover 2 (23.4 percent), and Bateman ranks second on the Ravens in targets per route run (25 percent) and first in yards per route run (4.38) against Cover 2. Washington runs Cover 1 at the next highest rate at 22.8 percent (No. 14). Against Cover 1 and 2, Bateman rocks a team-high 24 percent targets per route run and the second-most yards per route at 2.44 behind Mark Andrews (2.87).

It's a small sample, but Bateman continues to impress via Fantasy Points Average Separation Score, ranking 18th among receivers with 25 routes run. Separation isn't everything, but the data points toward Bateman performing above expectations based on the matchup.

Week 6 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore

It's risky to fade the Buccaneers' passing offense, with Baker Mayfield thriving, evidenced by the ninth-highest adjusted yards per attempt (7.07) and the 12th-best completion rate over expected (CPOE) at 3.7 percent. However, Marshon Lattimore has been dominant, allowing the second-lowest fantasy points per route and the sixth-fewest yards per route run. Lattimore has a history of shutting down Evans.

Since Lattimore entered the league in 2017, Evans averaged 9.6 PPR, three receptions, 52 receiving yards, and just over five targets per game in 14 contests. Meanwhile, Evans nearly doubled his production when not facing the Saints, evidenced by his 17.1 PPR, 8.5 receptions, and 77 receiving yards.

No one will sit Evans, but we need to downgrade his matchup in Week 6. Unless the Buccaneers use Evans in creative ways and more in the slot, the receiving matchup in Week 6 favors Chris Godwin. Over the past four weeks, the top receiver facing the Saints from a fantasy standpoint usually ran routes in the slot. They averaged 15.8 PPR/G, including 22.5 from CeeDee Lamb, 11.3 from DeVonta Smith, 10.7 from Drake London, and 18.6 from JuJu Smith-Schuster. Be cautious with Evans.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. Tariq Woolen (Tre Brown)

Besides Darius Slayton without Malik Nabers, the Seahawks have been locking down opposing receivers. There's some noise in the defensive metrics because the Seahawks faced the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. However, the way to beat the Seahawks tends to be via the run game. Besides Slayton and Jameson Williams catching both targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, the Seahawks cornerbacks have stifled outside receivers.

Tariq Woolen allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per route and the second-lowest yards per route run. Historically, Brandon Aiyuk has been one of the better receivers against man coverage. That's evident in Aiyuk's 3.24 yards per route run against man and 2.51 versus zone in 2023. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel rocked the eighth-highest yards per route run against zone and a lowly 1.14 yards per route versus man.

With Mike Macdonald as head coach, the Seahawks have been running the eighth-highest rate of man coverage at 32 percent. Interestingly, Aiyuk hasn't been as efficient and productive against man coverage in 2024. That's evident by Aiyuk's 1.37 yards per route run behind Jauan Jennings at 2.42, with nearly identical targets per route run at 23 percent compared to Jennings at 24 percent and Samuel at 23 percent.

There's some speculation that Aiyuk's holdout caused him to lose favor with the offense and head coach while taking time to be on the same page. It's risky to downgrade talented receivers like Aiyuk, evidenced by Drake London exploding in Week 5 after landing in the downgrade section last week. Like Evans, fantasy managers will start Aiyuk after his season-best performance in Week 5, so maybe it's a moot point.

Courtland Sutton vs. Kristian Fulton

One of the top regression candidates remains Courtland Sutton since he ranks 21st in expected fantasy points per game at 13.8, yet the fourth-worst fantasy points over expected at -4.8. That puts Sutton ahead of notables in Cooper Kupp at -4.8 FPOE/G and Keenan Allen at -6.1.

Sutton faces the Chargers, who allow the 28th-most fantasy points to receivers, and 26th-most to players out wide. That's slightly ahead of the Broncos, allowing 13.7 PPR/G out wide (No. 27) and 21.7 PPR/G to receivers overall (No. 31). Sutton projects to face Kristian Fulton, who has been the Chargers' best corner, allowing 0.15 FP/RR (No. 13) and 0.50 (No. 7) YPRR, similar to Lattimore and L'Jarius Sneed for context.

It could be fluky because the top receivers they faced over the previous four games include Davante Adams (11.8 PPR), Diontae Johnson (5.0 PPR) with Bryce Young, Calvin Austin III (23.8 PPR), and Xavier Worthy (24.3 PPR). Austin and Worthy made a splash play for a touchdown, which seems unlikely for Sutton's profile.

The Broncos face a Chargers' offense that runs the slowest pace, evidenced by their 30.2 seconds per snap (No. 32) with the highest rush rate at 53 percent. In Week 6, the Broncos and Chargers have the lowest over/under at 35.5, meaning it likely won't involve boom performances unless variance kicks in. The volume will be in Sutton's favor, but the efficiency likely won't if the slow pace eats into the Broncos' offensive opportunities.

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