Will the Real Cincinnati Bengals Please Stand Up?

November 13, 2022

Gladys breaks down the production of fantasy football players on the Cincinnati Bengals throughout the 2022 season and analyzes their fantasy outlook for the rest of the season.

Who are the real Cincinnati Bengals? Are they a different team without the services of Ja'Marr Chase?

Can we depend on the Bengals without Chase to bring us fantasy football goodness? And if so, what players are the real deal?

Who will it be, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, or Joe Mixon? Will the real Cincinnati Bengals please stand up? Or are we waiting for the return of Chase?

The Early Cincinnati Bengals

You remember the early Bengals, the Week 1 Bengals, the team that lost 23-20 to the Mitchell Trubisky-led Pittsburgh Steelers. Ja'Marr Chase played in that game. Quarterback Joe Burrow attempted 53 passing attempts. He fumbled twice and finished the game with a 61.7 passer rating. Burrow completed 33 passes for 338 passing yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions.

Chase had 16 targets in that game. He finished the game with 10 receptions, 129 receiving yards, and one touchdown. He averaged 12.9 yards per target. Next up was Mixon, with nine targets, seven receptions, and 63 yards. He also had 27 carries with 82 rushing yards and averaged 3.0 yards per attempt.

In that game, Burrow threw four interceptions and was sacked seven times.

Understandably, we wondered if this is the 2022 Cincinnati Bengals.

The next week, the Bengals played the Dallas Cowboys. In that game, Burrow only attempted 36 passes. He finished with 199 yards and a touchdown and was sacked six times again.

FANTASY POINTS FIRST FIVE WEEKS per playerprofiler.com

The Bengals finished the first five games with a 2-3 record. Mixon did not average 3.22 yards per carry. It wasn't that good, his average being buoyed by a 5.6 average against Baltimore in Week 5. Before that, his highest rushing average for those games was 3.0.

In Week 5 without Higgins in the game, tight end Hayden Hurst was second in targets (seven) behind Chase (12).

Except for the game against Pittsburgh, which went into overtime, Burrow did not attempt more than 36 passes (in the Pittsburgh game, he attempted 53), and Chase was either first or second in targets.

In Boyd's outlier game against the New York Jets, he was third in targets but eclipsed both Higgins and Chase in receiving yards (105) and scored a receiving touchdown.

There was a reason for concern. Chase wasn't getting more than 13 fantasy points a game, Higgins and Boyd each had one unpredictable breakout fantasy game, and Mixon averaged 2.625 yards per carry (taking out the one outlier game).

It wasn't looking good for consistent fantasy prospects.

Then New Orleans Happened

It began with Burrow entering the Superdome in Chase's LSU jersey. It ended with the Bengals beating the New Orleans Saints 30-26.

It started with the Bengals running their offense out of the shotgun. In this game, only two snaps were under center, one was a quarterback sneak, and the other was when the Bengals took a knee.

Out of the shotgun, Mixon averaged 5.6 yards per carry. It is noteworthy that in his next two games, he averaged 3.4, and then Carolina happened.

Burrow had 37 passing attempts but threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. He also added one rushing touchdown. He had 8.1 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 126.

It was the Burrow-Chase show. Burrow finished with 32.5 fantasy points and Chase 32.2. Mixon was next best with 16.8, Boyd 12.6, and Higgins 10.7. Burrow to Chase is the connection of fantasy dreams.

Chase's Injury and The Bengals Woes

Chase suffered a hip injury that will keep him out, optimistically, until Week 11.  So, who does this help? It may not be who you think.

Will The Real Cincinnati Bengals Please Stand Up?

Chase's last game before being sidelined was Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons. In that game, Burrow averaged 11.5 yards per attempt (the game before, it was 8.1). In Week 7, he attempted 42 passes and had an 81.0% completion percentage.

Then Cleveland Browns and no Chase happened. Burrow attempted 35 passes, and his yards per attempt dropped to 6.6. He finished with a 71.4% completion percentage and 14.5 fantasy points.

There was an emerging bright shining star, Mixon. In Week 8 against Cleveland, Mixon's targets went from three to nine. His receptions went from three to seven, and he had a 62.5% route run rate (up from 51.1%).

Mixon only finished with 12.9 fantasy points that game but his increased usage while his snap share remained stable was a good sign. How good?

In Week 9, Mixon had 22 carries, five targets, and 211 total yards. He finished with five touchdowns and 55.1 fantasy points for the game.

Sustaining 55-plus fantasy points a game is unrealistic. But his increased target share and dominating the backfield carries are realistic if Chase remains out for an extended time.

The Bengals' next opponents are the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, and the Kansas City Chiefs.

QUARTERBACK

Burrow is almost always in play. He is the real deal. His floor without Chase is 14.5 fantasy points. His floor with Chase this season has been 16.6.

His opponents in the next three games include the Steelers, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.1, while giving up 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. (There are rumors that T.J. Watt will be back, which lowers Burrow ceiling, remember Week 1).

The Titans have given up 15 passing touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (19.8), and the Chiefs are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback (19.5) and the most touchdowns (17).

The landscape for the quarterbacks is getting messy. Take the floor of Burrow with or without Chase.

Mixon is pseudo-real, especially without Chase. Burrow checks down, and Mixon is the recipient of those short passes.

The real Bengals are the Burrow-Chase connection. In the meantime, Mixon is doing a really good job of imitating reality. His fantasy output against the Panthers was 22.1% higher than his previous high, which was in Week 1. Mixon's floor is seriously low, like 6.8 fantasy points low. We all know 55.1 isn't a serious ceiling (thanks Carolina for false hopes).

You can depend on Mixon but lower your expectations as long as Chase is out. His five touchdowns last week were two more than he has had all season. His largest target is nine, which he has seen twice, in Week 1 and Week 8. And in his last three games, he has had 22 (outlier), eight, and 17 carries. (His 17-carry game resulted in 18.1 fantasy points).

Until Chase returns, the only real Bengal is Burrow…please stand up.

More Fantasy Football Analysis