RADIO
We're into Week 3 of the NFL season, and we're starting to see some defensive units stand out among the pack. However, it's still too early to fully give ourselves over to the data we're collecting for some of these teams. Are the Jaguars really this good? Are the Colts really this bad? Only time will tell, but it's best to exercise some caution when reacting to results that are so far outside of what we expected coming into the year. You can react to the Bills' defense being this good and the Raiders' defense being this bad though. We expected that.
We went just five for ten in our top-10 predictions from last week. I will admit that I did not see the Jaguars, Falcons, and Seahawks as potential top-10 units. I had moved the Jaguars up into the top-15 when Michael Pittman Jr. was ruled out, but they surprised me. I also didn't expect Kansas City to finish as a top-10 unit against the Chargers, and the Patriots just missed the top-10 against the Steelers, so while the overall results weren't great this week, I don't feel too bad about our process.
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 3 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 3 everyone!
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What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Break-Ups) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(Missed Tackles)+ (% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Since this is Week 3, I encourage people not to use the BOD rankings too heavily because the stats have clearly not stabilized yet. Also, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
9-11 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top-10 this year, so I'll keep track below using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 3 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 3
The Cowboys rebounded from a subpar Week 1 with a dominant defensive performance in a Week 2 win over the Bengals. They are 2nd in the NFL in tackles for a loss and third in sacks through two games. They now face a Giants team that’s given up eight sacks in two games, and I still don't trust Daniel Jones to not make terrible throws. He got away with a few bad passes against the Panthers, but I think the Cowboys will make him pay for those this week.
Why do people have the Bucs outside of the top-10 for Week 3? This is an elite defensive unit that leads the league with 10 sacks through two games. They’re also tied for 4th in turnovers forced and remain a top-tier run defense. So is the concern that they’re facing the Packers? Is this offense scary without Davante Adams? They’ve given up seven sacks in two games and they have no weapons on the outside that really scare me. I don’t see any reason to sit the Bucs defense here.
Coming into the season, we might have assumed that we need to sit defenses against the Broncos. However, Denver simply hasn't looked that inspiring on offense to start the year, and then they lost Jerry Jeudy to a clavicle injury against the Texans. The 49ers are 4th in the league in pressure rate, 3rd in tackles for a loss, and 2nd in drives that end in an opposing score. I think that makes them a relatively safe floor defense that has the pass rush to give you a potential ceiling here.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 3
The Jaguars are a bit of a darling now after dominating the Colts, but I think the love is going a bit too far. The Colts are a flawed team, and the Jaguars lost to the Commanders in Week 1. This Chargers defense has seven sacks through two games and will easily be most talented defense the Jaguars have faced so far this season. Jacksonville is better than they were, and they have some exciting pieces, but I think this might be a come-back-to-earth game.
This Ravens ranking is assuming that Marlon Humphrey is able to play on Sunday. The Ravens defense, when Humphrey was on the field, handled the Dolphins fairly well. When Humphrey got hurt and left the game, things went south in a hurry.
Those are pretty major differences. In fact, by the end of the game, the Ravens were down four of their top five cornerbacks. Now, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins exploited the Ravens' secondary injuries like any good offense should, and hats off to them. But Mac Jones and DeVante Parker are not Tua and Tyreek Hill. If the Ravens can get Humphrey and some of their other corners back by Sunday, they should be able to handle the Patriots, but you need to keep an eye on the injury report.
At this point, we just have to put the Bills first, right? I mean, the Dolphins are not an easy matchup by any stretch of the imagination, and the Bills may be without starting cornerback Dane Jackson after a scary hit on Monday night. However, the Bills' defense has also been dominant against the Rams and Titans to start the season and if you have them, you absolutely have to start them. Will they finish number one? I'd say probably not, but I really can't think of a defense I'd feel comfortable starting over them right now. UPDATE: Turns out that missing SIX defensive starters will move you down the rankings a little bit.
This is not the same Colts offensive line we've come to expect dominance from in the past. They've given up seven sacks in two games to the Texans and Jaguars. They are having real issues opening holes for Jonathan Taylor and protecting Matt Ryan. We also saw that this is not necessarily an offense that likes to open it up and throw. Yes, Michael Pittman Jr. was out, but Matt Ryan threw three bad interceptions in comeback mode against the Jags. What's going to happen when they try to keep up with this Chiefs offense? The Chiefs are an opportunistic defense that is 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate so far, so I expect them to be in Ryan's face a lot on Sunday.
This Steelers and Browns game features two defenses that can certainly be in your lineups this week; however, the discrepancy in fantasy rankings is confusing to me. How are the Browns the consensus number one defense right now? Did we not all just see what happened against the Jets?
Yes, I know it was a miracle comeback, but the Browns are currently bottom-third in QB pressure rate, are not really forcing turnovers, and are allowing far too many points. The Steelers have only allowed four sacks through two games, despite facing the Bengals and Patriots and are actually tied for 2nd-best in the league in offensive turnover rate. So they may be bad, but they're not really giving up tons of fantasy points.
I have the same amount of confusion with the Eagles. This is a defense that gave up 35 points to the Lions and then went out and absolutely dominated the Vikings. Which version of this defense will show up against a solid Commanders offense? The Eagles are second to last in the NFL in QB pressure rate and have just three sacks in two games. Darius Slay was a one-man wrecking crew on Monday, but can that continue? I'm not 100% sure but there could also be some bad weather in this game, which makes me think the Eagles are a solid play here.
The Rams were trending towards a solid performance against the Falcons, leading 28-3 in the third quarter before a Matthew Stafford interception and a blocked punt touchdown gave the Falcons life. However, it's also clear that this Rams team is not firing on all cylinders and Kyler Murray, despite being erratic, is still capable of making defenses pay for sloppiness. I think the Rams are playable, but this Cardinals offense isn't really a bad unit.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 3
This is a big tier, but I'm confused by the vast majority of these defenses early in the season.
The Packers are ranked a bit too low by consensus for me considering the Bucs will be without Mike Evans (suspension), Chris Godwin (hamstring), and maybe Julio Jones (knee). Julio is the only one with even a chance to play, which would leave the Bucs with just Breshad Perriman and Russell Gage. Tom Brady has certainly made it work with less, but this Bucs offensive line is really banged up, and the Packers are 2nd in the NFL in QB pressure rate. If Brady doesn't have weapons to challenge them, they could dial up lots of pressure.
The Bengals are a team I'm surprised to see ranked so high. They just laid a major egg against Cooper Rush and a banged-up Cowboys offense and lost in Week 1 to Mitchell Trubisky. Yes, Joe Flacco is not a great quarterback, but he's thrown for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in five straight starts, and the Jets have talented playmakers on that offense. This Bengals defense has just two sacks through the first two weeks and has forced one turnover. The Jets aren't just going to give them the ball.
The Steelers defense has seven sacks and 14 pass break-ups in two games and is 4th in the league in turnover rate. Obviously, these are small sample sizes, but the defense remains solid, even without T.J. Watt, and this Browns offense is still just average with Jacoby Brisset at quarterback. I think this could be an ugly, grind-it-out slugfest that leads to a low score but not too many fantasy points for defenses through sacks and turnovers.
I also see some people ranking the Saints in the top five. What have they done to deserve that? I was optimistic coming into the year, but they're last in the NFL in pressure rate, have one sack in two games, and have given up points on 34.6% of their drives. The Panthers have three turnovers and six sacks allowed through two games, so there is an avenue for some success against them, but they also have talented players on the offensive side of the ball, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them also improve as the weeks go on. I think the Saints are playable this week, but they concern me.
This tier has three defenses that are intriguing because of their matchup. The Bears lead the NFL in pressure rate and have 12 tackles for a loss in two games. They will bring pressure against Davis Mills and could force some turnovers, even though Mills has been pretty good with the ball, and the Texans have allowed six sacks in two games. On the other side of the ball, the Bears are playing uninspired football, and the Texans have kept both the Broncos and Colts in check, so they should easily be able to keep Justin Fields from going off against them.
UPDATE: Jacksonville moves into this tier as it continues to seem like Justin Herbert will sit. The Chargers still have weapons and Chase Daniel is a serviceable backup, so the Jags aren't a MUST PLAY, but they become a strong deep league option given their performance to date.
The Broncos are another team that has let us down so far this season with two uninspired performances. The 49ers are not as dynamic without Trey Lance, but Jimmy Garoppolo guided this team to the NFC Championship last year. He's a game manager who gets the ball into the hands of his playmakers, and George Kittle might be back for this game. I'm just not sure I can trust the Broncos - or many teams in this tier, frankly.
Lastly, the Seahawks are 6th in the NFL in pressure rate and 3rd in tackles for a loss. They will be playing in front of their home crowd against a Falcons offense that doesn't seem to want to get the ball to their best player. It would not surprise me if the Seahawks broke into the top-12 this week.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 3
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 3
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