RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers and busts heading into Week 2 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
We are officially back! Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is in the books. Let it out, this is a safe space. Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua managers are going through it right about now. But that’s ok, there’s a lot of season left to be played.
Enough of the injuries, we finally have real regular-season data to analyze. With that comes some serious responsibility. We shouldn’t overreact, but as the great Kyle Lindemann says, we should react with swiftness to get ahead of the market. Part of that is understanding the biggest risers and fallers of the week.
In this weekly column, we’ll take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers coming out of the previous week. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use cold hard facts to help make informed decisions for our fantasy teams. If you’re looking for an article to tell you Bijan Robinson is the biggest riser coming out of Week 1, then, well, this article might not be for you. Without further ado, here are some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 2.
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Week 2 Fantasy Football Risers
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
HC Dan Campbell talked all offseason about Williams being a big part of the offense in 2024. He wasn’t lying. Fantasy managers who took a gamble on the third-year wideout have to be feeling pretty good about his performance in Week 1.
Williams recorded career highs in snap percentage (85%), targets (nine), and receiving yards (121). Not only that, but he had a 42.9% first-read target share, per Fantasy Points Data. According to Jacob Gibbs, he never had higher than a 20% first-read target share in any single game in his career.
People will tell you to “sell high” coming off a career-best performance, but that might not be wise given his new role. The Lions are very thin at wide receiver and it appears Williams is in store for a big 2024 season. Congratulations if you took the gamble on Jamo.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
According to Scott Rinear, Stevenson had the third-highest RB-weighted opportunity share in Week 1 (31.9%), just behind Bijan Robinson and Joe Mixon. This metric combines target share and RB opportunity share to get a more holistic look at which running backs are getting the most valuable opportunities to score the most fantasy points.
The Patriots also looked like a competent on offense in Week 1 under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. They ran 64 plays, which was four more than their average of 60 in 2023. Stevenson was a big part of the Patriots being able to move the ball up and down the field. Check this out:
Rhamondre Stevenson logged 12 missed tackles forced today per @PFF. No other running back recorded more than 5.
109 of his 120 yards came after contact.pic.twitter.com/imP4BnQUPv
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 8, 2024
The guy was making defenders look silly. The Patriots knew exactly what they were doing when they extended Stevenson in the offseason (four years, $36M). If you took a stab at New England’s feature back in the “RB dead zone,” things are looking promising after one game.
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
A lot of teams don't play their starters in the preseason. The Ravens are one of those teams, and this preseason, Likely didn’t play a single preseason snap. And then Baltimore went ahead and put him on its official team cover photo for Week 1!
Hold up, Isaiah Likely in the cover photo!? https://t.co/nQn48269c2
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 5, 2024
The writing was on the wall for Likely to play a lot more than he played in his first two NFL seasons. Before Week 1 of the 2024 season, he was exclusively a backup to Mark Andrews.
He performed well when called upon in the past, but he was rarely on the field with Andrews. That all changed last Thursday when Likely played 66% of the snaps with the Ravens making 12 personnel their base offense.
The Ravens featured 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs) on 52.7% of plays last night vs. the Chiefs, a higher mark than in any game last season, per @NextGenStats.
Isaiah Likely is here to stay.
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) September 6, 2024
Not only was Likely on the field more than he has ever been in the past when sharing the field with Andrews, but he led all tight ends with eight first-read targets in Week 1. Lamar Jackson looked his way early and very often. He might not out-target Andrews every week, but he should be viewed as a top-10 tight end for the rest of the season.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
After missing a good portion of training camp, the Raiders rookie tight end saw eight targets on a 68% snap share in Week 1. His 25% target share led the team. Pretty good for a rookie. Having more targets than Davante Adams (six) in your first career NFL game shouldn’t be ignored. What’s more, Bowers was tied for second amongst tight ends in first-read targets:
Tight end leaders in first-read targets, per @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/wYnpaUchIV
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 9, 2024
Gardner Minshew II did not hesitate to look his way throughout the game. The Raiders trailed in this one, which might be a consistent theme for the rest of the season. That’s great news for Bowers, who had a 78% route participation rate in his first NFL game. For reference, Sam LaPorta had a 56% route participation rate in his first game last season.
The early involvement for Bowers is extremely promising. If you waited on a tight end this season and took him late, you’ve got to be feeling pretty good right now. It’s wheels up from Week 2 onward.
Las Vegas Raiders rookie TE Brock Bowers led the team in targets and was used all over the formation in his NFL debut.
Watch every route here ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Wsj3DBPZAe
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 10, 2024
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
This one just has to warm your heart. Dobbins has battled multiple serious leg injuries throughout this career. But in Week 1, he looked (almost) back to his old self.
jk dobbins the man that u are
📺 | @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/YZGjq4cXYm
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 8, 2024
We saw a combination of burst, patience, and speed from Dobbins. He totaled 139 yards and a touchdown on 13 touches (10 carries and three targets). Gus Edwards had one more carry, but Dobbins outplayed him from the jump.
Not only did Dobbins look better on the ground than his former Ravens teammate, but he also saw work in the passing game. That's not something we're accustomed to seeing from Dobbins, who had just 35 career targets in 24 career games coming into this season.
His route participation rate falling in between Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne is not something that was on anybody's preseason bingo card.
Week 1 RB route participation rate leaders:
88% - Jonathan Taylor
82% - Bijan Robinson
77% - Kyren Williams
72% - Rhamondre Stevenson
71% - Isiah Pacheco
66% - Saquon Barkley
65% - Rachaad White
64% - Jerome Ford
61% - De'Von Achane
61% - D'Andre Swift
60% - Alexander Mattison…— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 9, 2024
Many were out on him before this season given the injuries he's battled in the last few years, but there's no denying the opportunity that lies ahead for Dobbins. If you took the plunge, it looks like it might pay off.
Other Risers: De'Von Achane, Colby Parkinson, Kyren Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Bucky Irving, Joe Mixon, Brian Thomas Jr.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Fallers
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels looked great ... on the ground. As a passer, not so much. He completed 70.8% of his passes, but he didn’t push the ball down the field. Daniels only completed one pass over 10 yards down the field. That’s not great for McLaurin, who has historically made a living on deeper passes. He’s never averaged fewer than 12.6 yards per catch (YPC). In Week 1, he averaged just 8.5 YPC.
Unfortunately for McLaurin’s fantasy managers, the bad news doesn’t stop with his rookie quarterback. His new offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, didn’t do much to scheme him open. He almost exclusively played on one side of the field.
Terry McLaurin lined up as the Commanders' left outside WR on 37 of his 43 snaps in Week 1 pic.twitter.com/QR9zugqw0j
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 8, 2024
If that kind of deployment continues, McLaurin is going to have a hard time producing in this Kingsbury offense. You may still feel inclined to start him in a favorable matchup vs. the Giants in Week 2, but it wouldn’t be completely off-base to sit him until Daniels gets a little more comfortable with the offense.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
To say it was a rough debut for Harrison Jr. would be an understatement. It showed up in his separation win rate and average separation score (ASS) in Week 1. He scored similarly to Carolina rookie wideout Xavier Legette.
All Rookie WRs by Separation Win Rate
+ @FantasyPtsDataOnly two rookies had a negative A.S.S. in Week 1. One was Xavier Legette. The other was... 🙈 pic.twitter.com/HAyL2sJ61O
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 10, 2024
It's just one week and we shouldn't necessarily pass judgment after just one game. However, what he put on film was bad. He looked slower than in college, his routes appeared a bit lazy, and his overall body language was not that of the first rookie off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft. Take a look at every one of his routes in Week 1:
Every Marvin Harrison Jr. Week 1 route⬇️
The average route depth (distance from the line of scrimmage that the initial cut in his route comes) for MHJ was 12.1 yards. I was worried about this.
In Week 1, he was used as a pure X receiver and vertical field stretcher. MHJ was… pic.twitter.com/FtkkIpLgqb
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 9, 2024
Brighter days lie ahead for the Cardinals rookie wideout, but this was surprising, to say the least. Of course, we want to ignore it, but that doesn't mean we should. He may be nowhere near as good in the NFL as he was in college. That happens sometimes. Stay the course, but consider selling if the opportunity presents itself.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Williams became a prime target for many fantasy managers this season after the release of Samaje Perine. However, after one game, those people are probably scratching their heads a bit as teammate Jaleel McLaughlin out-touched him 15-9. That included just one target for Williams compared to five for McLaughlin.
Not only was he out-touched by his backfield mate, but the Broncos offense looked stagnant under rookie quarterback Bo Nix. As a result, the Seahawks were able to stack the box. That led to just 2.9 YPC for Williams. To sum it up, it wasn’t pretty.
Linebacker - er, I mean cornerback - Devon Witherspoon knifing down the line to smack Javonte Williams for no gain. pic.twitter.com/1RGC2gbtk0
— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) September 10, 2024
Up next for Williams is a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that just held Bijan Robinson to 68 rushing yards on 18 carries. At least he’s healthy, but the outlook isn’t great for Williams in what could be a below-average offense this season. The competition from McLaughlin makes things just that much tougher.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk was the clear WR3 for the Jaguars in Week 1.
Christian Kirk was third among Jaguars WRs in snaps and only played 3 of 12 plays with 2 or fewer WRs on the field.
Gabe Davis led the Jags WRs in snaps. You do hate to see it.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 8, 2024
He had a couple of critical drops, but all in all, the underlying utilization wasn't great for the seven-year veteran. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. looked the part of a first-round pick, and Gabe Davis also held his own opposite of BTJ. Remember, the Jags gave Davis a three-year, $39M contract this offseason.
The Jaguars also have Evan Engram, who saw just four targets himself in Week 1. So, not only will Kirk have to battle for targets with BTJ, Davis, and Engram, but he'll also be coming off the field more than those guys if Week 1 is any indication of his future utilization.
We're not completely giving up on Kirk just yet, but the outlook isn't quite as positive as it was coming into the season.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
White was a polarizing player this offseason. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce often referred to him as a bell cow and fantasy managers were excited to draft him this season. However, Week 1 told a different story as Pierce decided to roll with the "hot hand" in Alexander Mattison. And then he doubled down on the "hot hand" approach, saying "we've got to [continue doing that]":
#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce on Alexander Mattison:
“I thought he did a heck of a job. Every time he went in there, made plays. Really good job, also, in pass protection for us.”
on whether he’ll will ride the hot hand:
“We’ve got to” pic.twitter.com/EtAKNP7piX
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 9, 2024
This is bad news for anyone that was counting on White as their RB2 this season. We already knew that White was at risk of losing work on passing downs this season, but we may have understated the possibility of him losing work on early downs as well.
Last season, White was thrust into a feature role when Josh Jacobs missed the final four games of the season. Fantasy managers figured it would be similar, but that didn't end up being the case in a negative game script in Week 1. White ended up playing just 38% of the snaps in his first game as the "starter." White's stock has fallen exponentially in just one game.
Other Fallers: Mark Andrews, Raheem Mostert, Rachaad White, Curtis Samuel, Jaylen Warren
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